covidlag 0.0.1

lag time and death rate per infection

covidlag

Data science is useful to investigate the progression of the pandemic. This repository proposes a new tool covidlag for analyzing a lag time between infection peaks and death peaks. Covidlang is a open-source program which can provide the lag time and the death rate per infection.

Polynomial curve-fitting algorithm is used for detecting infection peaks and death peaks. The lag time is a difference between a infection peak and a death peak. The average death rate per infection can be also calculated. In shorter lag time, we must treat infected patients in urgent manners. In longer lag time, we must provide sufficient hospital accomodation. In higher death rate per infection, we must strengthen policies.

How to install covidlag

Covidlag is available in public and can be installed by the PyPI packaging:

$ pip install covidlag

How to run covidlag

Run the following command composed of the country name, sampled days, the degree of polynomial curve-fitting, and options (L: left, R: right, C: center):

$ covidlag Japan 400 13 L

This example shows the 13th degree polynomial curve-fitting using 400 days has r-squared of infections:0.923 and r-squared of deaths:0.706.

The death peaks are [152 267 374].
death peak: 2021-01-29 <-
death peak: 2021-05-24 <-
death peak: 2021-09-08 <-

The case peaks are [27 133 252 258].
case peak: 2020-09-26
case peak: 2021-01-10 <-
case peak: 2021-05-09 <-
case peak: 2021-08-23 <-

The lag time between infections and deaths is 19 days, 15 days, and 16 days respectively.

The number of every death peak is [88 92 54].

The number of every case peak is [526 4421 5902 20029]

Therefore, death rate of peaks is 88/4421=0.019, 92/5902=0.015, 54/20029=0.0026 respectively.

$ covidlag 'United States' 600 13 L

This example shows that r-squared of infections:0.803 and r-squared of deaths:0.733

The death peaks are [71 189 337 470 579]

death peak: 2020-04-23
death peak: 2020-08-19
death peak: 2021-01-14
death peak: 2021-05-27
death peak: 2021-09-13

The case peaks are [52 156 315 448 566]

case peak: 2020-04-04
case peak: 2020-07-17
case peak: 2020-12-23
case peak: 2021-05-05
case peak: 2021-08-31

The lag time between infections and deaths is 19 days, 33 days, 22 days, 22 days, 13 days.

The number of every death peak is [1944 1005 3109 632 1943].

The number of every case peak is [28858 57877 207829 44827 178454]

The death rate per infection is 1944/28858=0.067,1005/57877=0.017,3109/207829=0.015,632/44827=0.014,1943/178454=0.011

$ covidlag Canada 400 13 L

death peak: 2020-09-07
death peak: 2021-01-06
death peak: 2021-05-08
death peak: 2021-09-25
case peak: 2020-09-07
case peak: 2020-12-26
case peak: 2021-04-21
case peak: 2021-09-19

The lag time is 11 days, 17 days,...

The death rate per infection is 0.018,0.006,...