forgeffects 0.2.1

A package for forgotten effects theory computation.

forgeffects is a Python package designed for the analysis and computation of forgotten effects and direct effects. It leverages tensor-based computations, aggregating data from multiple key informants to process chained bipartite or complete graphs using 3D tensors.

Installation

Install the package from PyPI:

pip install forgeffects

Included Datasets

The forgeffects package includes three 3D incidence matrices: CC, CE, and EE, used in the study Application of Forgotten Effects Theory to Evaluate Public Policy on Air Pollution in the Municipality of Valdivia, Chile.

The data corresponds to sixteen incentives, four behaviors, and ten key informants. These matrices can be loaded using the load_test_data() function, which accesses .npy files stored in the package.

Example:

import forgeffects as fe

CC = fe.load_test_data("CC.npy")
CE = fe.load_test_data("CE.npy")
EE = fe.load_test_data("EE.npy")

Usage

Graph Types

• Complete Graphs: To perform calculations with complete graphs, you only need to provide either the CC matrix (cause-cause relationships) or the EE matrix (effect-effect relationships). The CE matrix is not required for this type of graph.

• Chained Bipartite Graphs: To perform calculations with chained bipartite graphs, all three matrices (CC, CE, and EE) must be provided. These matrices represent cause-cause, cause-effect, and effect-effect relationships, respectively, and are necessary to construct the bipartite graph structure.

Forgotten Effects

The FE() function identifies indirect paths between causes and effects, enabling the discovery of forgotten effects. It uses iterative max-min convolutions to analyze these paths, filtering results based on a specified significance threshold and exploring up to a defined maximum order of forgotten effects.

Parameters:

• CC: A 3D incidence matrix for cause-cause relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• CE: A 3D incidence matrix for cause-effect relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• EE: A 3D incidence matrix for effect-effect relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• causes: (optional) A list or tuple of strings representing custom names for the causes. If not specified, the causes will be automatically named using the notation $a_1, a_2, \dots, a_n$, where $n$ is the number of evaluated causes.
• effects: (optional) A list or tuple of strings representing custom names for the effects. If not specified, the effects will be automatically named using the notation $b_1, b_2, \dots, b_m$, where $m$ is the number of evaluated effects.
• THR (float): Defines the degree of truth in which incidence is considered significant within the range [0,1] (default $0.5$).
• maxorder (int): Maximum order of forgotten effects to compute (default $2$).
• reps (int): Number of replicas for empirical resampling (default $1000$).

Returns:

A list of DataFrames, each corresponding to an evaluated order of forgotten effects, with the following columns:

• From: Origin node of the indirect relationship.
• Through_x: Intermediary nodes (dynamic based on the evaluated order).
• To: Destination node of the indirect relationship.
• Count: Number of times a forgotten effect is repeated across different experts.
• Mean: Mean of the forgotten effects identified.
• SD: Standard deviation.

Example (Chained bipartite graph)

import forgeffects as fe

# Compute forgotten effects
result = fe.FE(CC, CE, EE, rep=10000, THR=0.5, maxorder=3)

# Display the results for the second-order forgotten effects
print(fe_results[0])

# Note: If additional orders are found, the results for third-order effects can be accessed using fe_results[1],
# for fourth-order effects using fe_results[2], and so on.

Results

The example demonstrates the second-order forgotten effects identified by the function

From	Through1	To	Count	Mean	SD
a10	a11	a14	2134	0.660128	0.088254
a13	a16	a1	2038	0.638836	0.080122
a3	a6	a9	1910	0.642309	0.081263
a8	a13	a10	1905	0.713915	0.100976
a13	a6	a9	1698	0.662080	0.083397
...	...	...	...	...	...
a9	a3	a10	1	0.531971	0.000000
a5	b2	b4	1	0.513954	0.000000
a5	a14	a9	1	0.541666	0.000000
a2	a16	a5	1	0.582708	0.000000
a3	a10	b4	1	0.517474	0.000000

[3725 rows x 6 columns]

Direct Effects

The directEffects() function computes direct effects, estimating mean incidences, confidence intervals, and p-values. It applies a one-sided t-test with BCa bootstrap to assess the significance of direct relationships.

Parameters:

• CC: A 3D incidence matrix for cause-cause relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• CE: A 3D incidence matrix for cause-effect relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• EE: A 3D incidence matrix for effect-effect relationships. This matrix must be in Numpy format with the shape (key informants, rows, columns).
• causes: (optional) A list or tuple of strings representing custom names for the causes. If not specified, the causes will be automatically named using the notation $a_1, a_2, \dots, a_n$, where $n$ is the number of evaluated causes.
• effects: (optional) A list or tuple of strings representing custom names for the effects. If not specified, the effects will be automatically named using the notation $b_1, b_2, \dots, b_m$, where $m$ is the number of evaluated effects.
• THR (float): Defines the degree of truth in which incidence is considered significant within the range [0,1] (default $0.5$).
• conf_level (float): Confidence level for intervals (default $0.95$).
• reps (int): Defines the number of bootstrap replicates (default $10000$).

Returns:

A DataFrame with the following columns:

• From: Origin node of the incidence.
• To: Destination node of the incidence.
• Mean: Mean incidence across experts.
• UCI: Upper confidence interval limit.
• p.value: Calculated p-value.

Example (Chained bipartite graph)

import forgeffects as fe

# Compute direct effects
de_results = fe.directEffects(CC, CE, EE, rep=10000, THR=0.5, conf_level=0.95)

# Display the results
print(de_results)

Results

The example demonstrates the direct effects identified by the function:

From	To	Mean	UCI	p.value
a1	a2	0.525	0.650	0.5979
a1	a3	0.450	0.590	0.2855
a1	a4	0.525	0.665	0.6086
a1	a5	0.465	0.650	0.3648
a1	a6	0.645	0.805	0.8767
...	...	...	...	...
b3	b2	0.835	0.890	0.9996
b3	b4	0.645	0.785	0.8997
b4	b1	0.800	0.920	0.9267
b4	b2	0.805	0.900	0.9974
b4	b3	0.820	0.900	0.9994

[316 rows x 5 columns]

References

[1] Kaufmann, A. and Gil Aluja, J. Models for the Research of Forgotten Effects. Milladoiro, Santiago de Compostela, Spain, 1988.

[2] Manna, E. M., Rojas-Mora, J., & Mondaca-Marino, C. Application of the Forgotten Effects Theory for Assessing the Public Policy on Air Pollution of the Commune of Valdivia, Chile. In From Science to Society (pp. 61-72). Springer, Cham, 2018.

[3] Mardones-Arias, E.; Rojas-Mora, J. foRgotten. R package version 1.1.0, 2022.

[4] Chávez-Bustamante, F.; Mardones-Arias, E.; Rojas-Mora, J.; Tijmes-Ihl, J.
A Forgotten Effects Approach to the Analysis of Complex Economic Systems: Identifying Indirect Effects on Trade Networks. Mathematics, 11(3), Article 531, 2023.

[5] Kohl, M. MKinfer: Inferential Statistics. R package version 1.2, 2024.