microprediction 0.0.11

API crowd microprediction and microprediction contests at www.microprediction.com

microprediction

A minimalist Python client for entering microprediction contests

pip install microprediction 

Reading

It is possible to retrieve most quantities with direct web calls.

import requests
lagged_values = mr.get('lagged_values::cop.json')
lagged_values = requests.get('https://www.microprediction.com/live/lagged_values::cop.json').json()

The reader adds a little convenience.

from microprediction import MicroReader
mr = MicroReader()

summary       = mr.get_summary('cop.json')
current_value = mr.get('cop.json')
lagged_values = mr.get_lagged_values('cop.json') 
lagged_times  = mr.get_lagged_times('cop.json')

Approximate crowd cumulative distribution function:

cdf = mr.get_cdf('cop.json',delay=70)

Quarantined value

cdf = mr.get_delayed('cop.json',delay=70)

Write client

For both requesting and supplying distributional predictions.

Obtaining a write_key (muid.org)

As explained at https://vimeo.com/397352413 you need to mine a MUID to obtain write privileges, such as submitting predictions. You can cut and paste this bash command into terminal:

/bin/bash -c "$(curl -fsSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/microprediction/muid/master/examples/mine_from_venv.sh)"

or using the MUID library...

$pip install muid
$python3
>>> import muid
>>> muid.mine(skip_intro=True)

Once you have a key:

from microprediction import MicroWriter
mw = MicroWriter(write_key='53e6fbba-2dcd-486c-a4ab-14759db58dde')  # Sub in your own key 

Submitting predictions

scenarios = [ i*0.001 for i in range(mw.num_predictions) ] 
mw.submit(name='cop.json',values=scenarios)    

Submitting data to be predicted

You can use the writer to create a stream of live data that clever algorithms and humans can predict.

Qualifying

You can write a new stream if:

len(muid.animal(mw.write_key))  >  official minimum length     # You have a hard to find MUID

or

mw.balance()  >   official minimum balance     # You've been good at predicting things !

See https://www.microprediction.com/config.json for the current values of min_len and min_balance. See https://vimeo.com/397352413 for explanation of muid.animal().

Updating the current value

Set current value.

prctl = mw.put(name='mystream.json',value=3.14157) 

By default this returns a percentile so you know how surprising the data point is.

Distribution of future values

You can retrieve quarantined crowd cumulative distribution function:

 cdf = mr.get_cdf('cop.json',delay=mr.delays[0],values=[0,0.5])

where the delay parameter, in seconds, acts as a prediction horizon.

Logs

Limited logging information may be retrieved:

get_errors()

or

error_log = requests.get('https://www.microprediction.com/live/errors::53e6fbba-2dcd-486c-a4ab-14759db58dde.json').json()