Orstein-Uhlenbeck pandemic simulation
Project description
Pandemic
An agent model in which commuting, compliance, testing and contagion parameters drive infection in a population. Agents follow OU drift processes on the plane. Viral load is estimated from geohashing. A population of 5,000,000 or so can be used without computational issue.
Motivaton
Covered in this post with the followup here where possible improvements are also discussed and acknowledgements are made.
The author is not an epidemiologist. The model expresses no opinions on the health aspects of COVID-19. The model offers a novel motion model with some interesting analytic properties also discussed in the article referenced above.
Usage
pip install pandemic
>> from pandemic import run
>> run()
See also examples of library use and examples of using the public database of simulations generated by this model.
Crowd-sourced surrogate model
See SwarmPrediction.com for an explanation of a SETI-like project to crowd-source a surrogate model.
Basic elements of the model
Covered in detail in this article
Contributing
Opinions and issues are most welcome.
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