pandemic 0.3.13

Orstein-Uhlenbeck pandemic simulation

Pandemic

An agent model in which commuting, compliance, testing and contagion parameters drive infection in a population of thousands of millions. Agents follow Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes in the plane and collisions drive transmission. Results are stored at SwarmPrediction.com for further analysis, and can be retrieved by anyone.

Motivaton

Covered in this post with the followup here where possible improvements are also discussed and acknowledgements are made.

The author is not an epidemiologist. The model expresses no opinions on the health aspects of COVID-19. The model offers a novel motion model with some interesting analytic properties also discussed in the article referenced above.

Usage

pip install pandemic
>> from pandemic import run
>> run()

See also examples of library use and examples of using the public database of simulations generated by this model.

Crowd-sourced surrogate model

See SwarmPrediction.com for an explanation of a SETI-like project to crowd-source a surrogate model.

Basic elements of the model

Covered in detail in this article

Contributing

Opinions and issues are most welcome.