Library to run the agentcomputing model of the Policy Priority Inference research programme.
Project description
Policy Priority Inference
This package contains all the code of PPI's agentcomputing model, as well as helper functions to parallelise the Monte Carlo simulations, and the calibration algorithm.
FUNCTIONS:
calibrate(I0, IF, success_rates, A=None, R=None, bs=None, qm=None, rl=None, Bs=None, B_dict=None, T=None, threshold=0.8, parallel_processes=None, verbose=False, low_precision_counts=101, increment=1000)
Function to calibrate the model parameters.
Parameters

I0: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
IF: numpy array
Vector with final values of the development indicators. These are
used to compute one type of error: whether the simulated values
end at the same levels as the empirical ones.
success_rates: numpy array
Vector with the empirical rate of growth of the development indicators.
A growth rate, for an indicator, is the number of times a positive
change is observed, divided by the the total number of changes
(which should be the number of observations in a time series minus one).
These rates must be greater than zero and less or equal to 1.
If an indicator does not show positive changes, it is suggested
to assign a rate close to zero. If success_rates contains values
that are zero (or less) or ones, they will be automatically replaced
by 0.01 and 1.0 respectively. This input is used to compute another
type of error: whether the endogenous probability of success of
each indicator matches its empirical rate of growth.
A: 2D numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
R: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
bs: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
qm: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
rl: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
Bs: numpy ndarray (optional)
See run_ppi function.
B_dict: dictionary (optional)
See run_ppi function.
T: int (optional)
See run_ppi function.
threshold: float (optional)
The goodnessoffit threshold to stop the calibration routine. This
consists of the worst goodnessoffit metric (across indicators) that
the user would like to obtain. The best possible metric is 1, but it
is impossible to achieve due to the model's stochasticity. Higher
thresholds demand more computing because more Monte Carlo simulations
are necessary to achieve high precision. If not provided, the default
value is 0.8.
parallel_processes: integer (optional)
The number of processes to be run in parallel. Each process carries
a work load of multiple Monte Carlo simulations of PPI. Parallel
processing is optional and requires the JobLib library.
If not provided, the Monte Carlo simulations are run in a serial fashion.
verbose: boolean (optional)
Whether to print the calibration progress. If not provided, the
default value is False.
low_precision_counts: integer (optional)
A hyperparameter of how many lowprecision iterations will be run.
Low precision means that only 10 Monte Carlo simulations are performed
for each evaluation. Once low_precision_counts has been met,
the number of Monte Carlo simulations increases in each iteration
by the amount specified in the hyperparameter: increment. If not
provided, the default value is 100.
increment: integer (optional)
A hyperparameter that sets the number of Montecarlo Simulations to
increase with each iteration, once low_precision_counts has been
reached. If not provided, the default value is 1000.
Returns

output: 2D numpy array
A matrix with the calibration results, organised in the following
columns (the matrix includes the column titles):
 alpha: The structural parameter of each indicator associated
with positive changes.
 alpha_prime: The structural parameter of each indicator associated
with negative changes.
 beta: The normalising constant of each parameter that helps
mapping the expenditure and spillovers into a probability.
 T: The number of simulation periods ran in in each Monte Carlo
simulation. It only appears in the first row of the column,
while the rest remain empty.
 error_alpha: The indicatorspecific error related to the
final value.
 error_beta: The indicatorspecific error related to the
rate of positive changes.
 GoF_alpha: The indicatorspecific goodnessoffit metric
related to the final value.
 GoF_beta: The indicatorspecific goodnessoffit metric
related to the rate of positive changes.
compute_error(I0, IF, success_rates, alphas, alphas_prime, betas, A=None, R=None, bs=None, qm=None, rl=None, Bs=None, B_dict=None, G=None, T=None, parallel_processes=None, sample_size=1000)
Function to evaluate the model and compute the errors.
Parameters

I0: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
IF: numpy array
See calibrate function.
success_rates: numpy array
See calibrate function.
alphas: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
alphas_prime: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
betas: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
A: 2D numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
R: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
bs: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
qm: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
rl: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
Bs: numpy ndarray (optional)
See run_ppi function.
B_dict: dictionary (optional)
See run_ppi function.
T: int (optional)
See run_ppi function.
parallel_processes: integer (optional)
See calibrate function.
sample_size: integer (optional)
Number of Monte Carlo simulations to be ran.
Returns

errors: 2D numpy array
A matrix with the error of each parameter. The first column contains
the errors associated to the final values of the indicators. The second
provides the errors related to the empirical probability of growth.
TF: integer
The number of periods that the model ran in each Monte Carlo simulation.
run_ppi(I0, alphas, alphas_prime, betas, A=None, R=None, bs=None, qm=None, rl=None, Imax=None, Imin=None, Bs=None, B_dict=None, G=None, T=None, frontier=None)
Function to run one simulation of the Policy Priority Inference model.
Parameters

I0: numpy array
Vector with the initial values of the development indicators.
alphas: numpy array
Vector with parameters representing the size of a positive change
in the indicators.
alphas_prime: numpy array
Vector with parameters representing the size of a negative change
in the indicators.
betas: numpy array
Vector with parameters that normalise the contribution of public
expenditure and spillovers to the probability of a positive change
in the indicators.
A: 2D numpy array (optional)
The adjacency matrix of the interdependency network of development
indicators. The rows denote the origins of dependencies and the columns
their destinations. Selfloops are not allowed, so PPI turns A's
diagonal into zeros. If not provided, the default value is a matrix
full of zeros.
R: numpy array (optional)
Vector that specifies whether an indicator is instrumental
or collateral. Instrumental indicators have value 1 and collateral
ones have zero. If not provided, the default value is
a vector of ones.
bs: numpy array (optional)
Vector with modulating factors for the budgetary allocation of
each instrumental indicator. Its size should be equal to the number
of instrumental indicators. If not provided, the default value is
a vector of ones.
qm: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
Captures the quality of the monitoring mechanisms that procure
public governance. There are three options to specify qm:
 A floating point: it assumes that the quality of monitoring is
the same for every indicator, that it is exogenous,
and that it remains constant through time. In this case, qm
should have a value between 0 and 1.
 An integer: it assumes that the quality of monitoring is captured
by one of the indicators, so qm gives the index in I0 where such
indicator is located. Here, the quality of monitoring is endogenous,
dynamic, and homogenous across the indicators.
 A vector: it assumes that the quality of monitoring is
heterogeneous across indicators, exogenous, and constant. Thus,
qm must have a size equal to the number of instrumental
indicators. Each entry in qm denotes the quality of monitoring
related to a particular indicator. Each value in this vector should be
between 0 and 1.
If not provided, the default values is qm=0.5.
rl: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
Captures the quality of the rule of law. There are three options to
specify rl:
 A floating point: it assumes that the quality of the rule of law
is the same for every indicator, that it is exogenous,
and that it remains constant through time. In this case, rl
should have a value between 0 and 1.
 An integer: it assumes that the quality of the rule of law is
captured by one of the indicators, so rl gives the index in I0
where such indicator is located. Here, the quality of the rule
of law is endogenous, dynamic, and homogenous across the indicators.
 A vector: it assumes that the quality of the rule of law is
heterogeneous across indicators, exogenous, and constant. Thus,
rl has to have a size equal to the number of instrumental
indicators. Each entry in rl denotes the quality of monitoring
in a particular indicator. Each value in this vector should be
between 0 and 1.
If not provided, the default values is rl=0.5.
Imax: numpy array (optional)
Vector with the theoretical upper bound of the indicators. If an entry
contains a missing value (NaN), then there is no upper bound defined
for that indicator and it will grow indefinitely. If not provided,
no indicator will have upper bound.
Imin: numpy array (optional)
Vector with the theoretical lower bound of the indicators. If an entry
contains a missing value (NaN), then there is no lower bound defined
for that indicator and it will decrease indefinitely. If not provided,
no indicator will have lower bound.
Bs: numpy ndarray
Disbursement schedule across expenditure programs. There are three
options to specify Bs:
 A matrix: this is a disaggregated specification of the
disbursement schedule across expenditure programs and time.
The rows correspond to expenditure programs and the columns
to simulation periods. Since there may be more or less expenditure
programs than indicators, the number of rows in Bs should be
consistent with the information contained in parameter B_dict,
otherwise PPI will throw and exception. Since the number of
columns denotes the number of simulation periods, parameter T
will be overridden.
 A vector: this would be equivalent to a matrix with a single
row, i.e. to having a single expenditure program. This representation
is useful when there is no information available across programs,
but there is across time. Like in the matrix representation,
this input should be consistent with B_dict.
If not provided, the default value is Bs=100 in every period.
B_dict: dictionary (optional)
A dictionary that maps the indices of every indicator into the
expenditure program(s) designed to affect them. Since there may be
multiple programs designed to impact and indicator, or multiple
indicators impacted by the same program, this mapping is not
one to one. To account for this, B_dict has, as keys, the indices
of the instrumental indicators and, as values, lists containing
the indices of the expenditure programs designed to impact them.
The indices of the programmes correspond to the rows of parameter
Bs in its matrix form. The user should make sure that the keys are
consistent with the indices of those indicators that are instrumental.
Likewise, the indices of the expenditure programs should be consistent
with the number of rows in Bs, otherwise PPI will throw an exception.
Providing B_dict is necessary if Bs is a matrix with more than one
row.
G: numpy array (optional)
The development goals to be achieved for each indicator. These are
used only to calculate the initial development gaps, which affect
the allocation decision of the government agent. If not provided,
the default initial allocations are determined randomly.
T: int (optional)
The maximum number of simulation periods. If Bs is provided, then T
is overridden by the number of columns in Bs. If not provided, the
default value in T=50.
frontier: numpy array (optional)
A vector with exogenous probabilities of positive growth for each
indicator. If an entry contains NaN, then the corresponding
probability is endogenous. This vector is typically used to perform
analysis on the budgetary frontier, in which the probability of
success of the instrumental indicators is set to 1. Alternatively,
the 'relaxed' frontier consists of imposing a high (but less than 1)
probability of growth. If not provided, the default behaviour is that
all the probabilities of success are endogenous. It is recommended
to not provide this parameter unless the user understands the
budgetary frontier analysis and idiosyncratic bottlenecks.
Returns

tsI: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated indicators. Each row
corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsC: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated contributions. Each row
corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsF: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated benefits. Each row
corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsP: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated allocations. Each row
corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsS: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated spillovers. Each row
corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsG: 2D numpy array
Matrix with the time series of the simulated growth probabilities.
Each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
run_ppi_parallel(I0, alphas, alphas_prime, betas, A=None, R=None, bs=None, qm=None, rl=None, Imax=None, Imin=None, Bs=None, B_dict=None, G=None, T=None, frontier=None, parallel_processes=4, sample_size=1000)
Function to run a sample of evaluations in parallel. As opposed to the function
run_ppi, which returns the output of a single realisation, this function returns
a set of time series (one for each realisation) of each output type.
Parameters

I0: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
IF: numpy array
See calibrate function.
success_rates: numpy array
See calibrate function.
alphas: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
alphas_prime: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
betas: numpy array
See run_ppi function.
A: 2D numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
R: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
bs: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
qm: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
rl: A floating point, an integer, or a numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
Bs: numpy ndarray (optional)
See run_ppi function.
B_dict: dictionary (optional)
See run_ppi function.
G: numpy array (optional)
See run_ppi function.
T: int (optional)
See run_ppi function.
frontier: boolean
See run_ppi function.
parallel_processes: integer (optional)
See calibrate function.
sample_size: integer (optional)
Number of Monte Carlo simulations to be ran.
Returns

tsI: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsC: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsF: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsP: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsS: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
tsG: list
A list with multiple matrices, each one containing the time series
of multiple realisations of the simulated indicators. In each matrix,
each row corresponds to an indicator and each column to a simulation step.
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