agent-estimate

Know before you build.

PERT estimates for AI-agent tasks — how long, which model's reliable enough, and the human-equivalent cost. In one command.

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Why

AI agents can write the code — but how long will the task actually take? Manual estimation is slow and biased toward optimism; no estimate means scope creep and missed deadlines. The gap between "agents can do it" and "we know when it'll be done" is where projects break down.

agent-estimate closes that gap in one command: a three-point PERT timeline calibrated on real agent runs, plus a human-speed comparison so you see the compression before you spend the compute. It sizes the task, picks a tier, routes it to a model, and flags when the work runs past that model's reliability horizon — calibrated forecasts in seconds, not meetings.

Multi-model matters because the models aren't interchangeable. Opus 4.7, GPT-5.5, and Gemini 3.1 have different reliability horizons (METR p80) and different costs per turn. A safe 40-minute job for one model is a coin flip for another. agent-estimate models the whole fleet, not a single agent — so the number reflects who actually runs the work.

Quick Start

First estimate: 30 seconds to install. Every one after: instant.

With your agent (recommended)

Paste this into your Claude Code or Codex session:

Install the agent-estimate plugin (https://github.com/kiloloop/agent-estimate) and
estimate this task for me: "Implement OAuth 2.0 flow (Google + GitHub)". Tell me the
expected time, the human-speed equivalent, and the compression ratio.

Your agent installs the tool, runs the estimate, and reads back the numbers. Nothing to memorize — describe the task in plain English and let the agent translate to flags.

For a whole backlog:

Estimate every open issue in this repo with agent-estimate, group them into parallel
waves, and tell me the total wall-clock time for a 3-agent fleet versus doing them
sequentially myself.

Manual

pip install agent-estimate
agent-estimate estimate "your task description here"

No config required — sensible defaults for a 3-agent fleet (Claude, Codex, Gemini). Point it at a file or GitHub issues when you're ready:

agent-estimate estimate --file tasks.txt
agent-estimate estimate --repo myorg/myrepo --issues 11,12,14
agent-estimate session --agents 3 --rounds 2 --type review

How It Works

agent-estimate produces three-point PERT estimates calibrated for agents, not humans:

• Tier classification — auto-sizes tasks XS→XL from complexity signals
• PERT math — optimistic / most-likely / pessimistic, weighted to an expected value
• Human comparison — a per-task-type multiplier, so you see the compression
• METR thresholds — warns when an estimate exceeds a model's p80 reliability horizon
• Wave planning — schedules independent tasks in parallel across the fleet
• Review overhead — models review cycles as additive cost (standard, complex, 3-round)
• Modifiers — --spec-clarity, --warm-context, --agent-fit tune the estimate

Task types

METR thresholds (defaults)

opus_4_x is a forward-compatible alias that resolves to the current Opus threshold. Legacy keys (opus_4_6, GPT-5/5.2/5.3, Gemini 3 Pro, Sonnet) stay supported. Estimates are calibrated against Claude Code (Opus 4.7, high thinking) and Codex (GPT-5.4/5.5, extra-high) — shift with --spec-clarity and --warm-context for other setups.

Examples

Real estimates from production use — including the misses.

The tool, estimating its own docs. We sized this v0.7.0 skill-and-README refresh at ~30 minutes. It took 28.

An honest over-estimate. We pre-registered a UI mockup build at ~95 minutes with no prior app-dev data. Two agents did it in parallel in 12 and 25 minutes — a 4–8x over-estimate. agent-estimate now ships an app_dev prior shaped by that result. The miss stays in the README because calibration means showing where you were wrong.

Three tasks, three agents, in parallel — what the tool prints, including the METR reliability flags. Input is the three-task tasks.txt from examples/multi-agent.md; the output below is captured from a real run, trimmed to the timeline and warnings (the full report — per-task PERT table, wave plan, agent loads — is in that example):

$ agent-estimate estimate --file tasks.txt

## Timeline Summary

| Metric | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Best case | 44.7m |
| Expected case | 75.4m |
| Worst case | 117.2m |
| Human-speed equivalent | 608.2m |
| Compression ratio | 8.07x |
| Review overhead (per-task, pre-amortization) | 45m |

## METR Warnings

- **Add known_debt.md as standard protocol memory file**: Estimate (75m) exceeds gpt_5_4 p80 threshold (60m). Consider splitting the task.
- **Write quickstart guide with protocol comparison table**: Estimate (75m) exceeds gemini_3_1_pro p80 threshold (45m). Consider splitting the task.

~75 minutes wall-clock versus ~10.1 hours of sequential human work, at an estimated $3.51 fleet cost — plus two flags that the Codex- and Gemini-assigned tasks run past their models' p80 reliability horizons, so you split them or add a checkpoint before dispatching. The same three tasks were later run by real agents; the retro is in the example file. More in examples/ — coding S/M, research, documentation, multi-agent.

Integrations

Claude Code plugin

/plugin marketplace add kiloloop/agent-estimate
/plugin install agent-estimate@agent-estimate-marketplace

/estimate Add a login page with OAuth
/estimate --file spec.md
/estimate --issues 1,2,3 --repo myorg/myrepo
/estimate validate observation.yaml
/estimate calibrate

GitHub Action

Available on the GitHub Marketplace:

- uses: kiloloop/agent-estimate@v0
  with:
    issues: '11,12,14'

The report goes wherever output-mode points: the job summary (summary, the default), a PR comment (pr-comment), an issue comment (issue-comment), or a step output for downstream steps (step-output) — combinable with + (e.g. summary+pr-comment).

name: Estimate
on:
  pull_request:
    types: [opened, synchronize]

permissions:
  contents: read
  issues: read
  pull-requests: write

jobs:
  estimate:
    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
    steps:
      - uses: actions/checkout@v4
      - uses: kiloloop/agent-estimate@v0
        with:
          issues: '11,12,14'
          output-mode: summary+pr-comment

name: Auto-estimate
on:
  issues:
    types: [labeled]

permissions:
  contents: read
  issues: write

jobs:
  estimate:
    if: github.event.label.name == 'estimate'
    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
    steps:
      - uses: kiloloop/agent-estimate@v0
        with:
          issues: ${{ github.event.issue.number }}
          output-mode: issue-comment
          title: 'Agent Estimate — issue #${{ github.event.issue.number }}'

name: Estimate gate
on:
  issues:
    types: [labeled]

permissions:
  issues: read

jobs:
  gate:
    if: github.event.label.name == 'estimate'
    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
    steps:
      - uses: kiloloop/agent-estimate@v0
        id: estimate
        with:
          issues: ${{ github.event.issue.number }}
          format: json
          output-mode: step-output
      - name: Flag oversized tasks
        if: steps.estimate.outputs.expected-minutes != '' && fromJSON(steps.estimate.outputs.expected-minutes) > 120
        env:
          AE_MINUTES: ${{ steps.estimate.outputs.expected-minutes }}
        run: echo "::warning::Expected ${AE_MINUTES} min — consider splitting before dispatching an agent."

Skill layout

Skills follow the oacp-skills convention:

skills/estimate/
  skill.yaml            # machine-readable metadata
  README.md             # human-readable docs
  shared/INTENT.md      # shared intent across runtimes
  claude/SKILL.md       # Claude Code skill definition
  codex/SKILL.md        # Codex skill definition

Both runtime slices cover the same CLI (estimate, validate, calibrate), phrased for their respective ecosystems.

Configuration

Agent fleet

Pass a config to model your own fleet:

agents:
  - name: Claude
    capabilities: [planning, implementation, review]
    parallelism: 2
    cost_per_turn: 0.12
    model_tier: frontier
  - name: Codex
    capabilities: [implementation, debugging, testing]
    parallelism: 3
    cost_per_turn: 0.08
    model_tier: production
settings:
  friction_multiplier: 1.15
  inter_wave_overhead: 0.25
  review_overhead: 0.2
  metr_fallback_threshold: 45.0

agent-estimate estimate "Ship packaging flow" --config ./my_agents.yaml

Output formats

agent-estimate estimate "Refactor auth pipeline" --format json   # machine-readable
agent-estimate estimate --repo myorg/myrepo --issues 11,12,14    # from GitHub issues
agent-estimate estimate --file tasks.txt                          # from file
agent-estimate estimate "Follow-up fix" --history-file data.json  # auto warm-context

When --warm-context is omitted, the CLI can auto-infer it from --history-file; if no history file is passed and ./data.json exists, that file is used as the default dispatch history source.

Session estimates

Use agent-estimate session for coordinated workflows where multiple agents run rounds of brainstorm, review, research, documentation, config, or coding work:

agent-estimate session --agents 3 --rounds 2 --type review
agent-estimate session --agents 4 --rounds 1 --per-round-minutes 25 --format json

The command reports wall-clock time, total agent-minutes, coordination overhead, and per-round breakdowns.

Calibration

Validate estimates against observed outcomes and build a calibration database:

agent-estimate validate observation.yaml --db ~/.agent-estimate/calibration.db

Project

• Website — landing page, live demo, and the estimate comparison view.
• OACP — coordinate the agents you just estimated. Open Agent Coordination Protocol for multi-agent async workflows.
• oacp-skills — the skill bundle agent-estimate's /estimate ships in.
• kiloloop — the rest of the ecosystem.

Contributing

See CONTRIBUTING.md for the full workflow.

pip install -e '.[dev]'
ruff check .
pytest -q

Community

• Code of Conduct
• Security Policy
• Support
• Changelog

License

Apache License 2.0