amazon-utac

GenesisAeon Package 19 — Amazon Rainforest Savannisation as UTAC System

Amazon rainforest → savanna transition modelled as reversed UTAC system.

Key result: Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 (low-CREP, fragile regime).

Installation

pip install amazon-utac

For development (running tests, linting):

pip install -e ".[dev]"

Quickstart

amazon-utac run --scenario current-rate
amazon-utac threshold --deforestation-rate 0.01

Integration in genesis-os

from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
amazon = os.load_package(19)
results = amazon.run_cycle(duration_years=80)

Benchmark

Validated against Lovejoy & Nobre (2019) and Boulton et al. (2022).

Falsifiable Prediction

With 1 % annual deforestation, tipping threshold crossed in 2038 ± 5 years.

Scientific Context — Global Trajectory (added 2026-09-02)

UNEP's "Limiting Overshoot: Navigating Exceedance of 1.5°C and Pathways Towards Return" (UNEP, published 2026-09-02, DOI: 10.59117/20.500.11822/49857) assesses that current policies put the world on track for ~2.6°C warming by 2100, with the 1.5°C Paris threshold expected to be permanently exceeded within the next few years.

Relevance and limits, stated honestly: this package's own threshold (20–25% deforestation, Lovejoy & Nobre 2019) is a deforestation-fraction threshold, not a temperature threshold — UNEP's report gives no Amazon-specific number and does not change DEFORESTATION_THRESHOLD_LOW/ HIGH/MID or GAMMA_AMAZON here. The connection is qualitative: Lovejoy & Nobre's own work notes that background warming and regional drying lower the deforestation threshold at which savannisation begins (a warmer, drier baseline needs less forest loss to tip), so a higher-than-hoped global warming trajectory is context that makes the package's threshold band more, not less, relevant going forward — it is not itself evidence for a specific revised threshold number.

Role in the GenesisAeon Ecosystem

amazon-utac is GenesisAeon Package 19 (P19), in the ecology / rainforest savannisation domain. It applies the GenesisAeon UTAC (Universal Threshold Activation Criticality) framework and CREP tensor to model the Amazon forest–savanna tipping point, contributing the cross-domain Γ_Amazon ≈ 0.116 data point to the ecosystem-wide CREP Criticality Spectrum.

Citation

Please cite this repository's own DOI above (or CITATION.cff in this repository), and the GenesisAeon whitepaper DOI further up for the overarching framework.

License

Code: MIT • Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0