ampion 0.5.3

Python client for the Ampion Trading Platform — Numerai-style tournament for European day-ahead power prices.

ampion-api

Python client for the Ampion Trading Platform — Numerai-style tournament for European day-ahead power prices.

Submit ML-generated forecasts for German day-ahead + balance settlement prices. Models that pass the 28-day evaluation (5 performance criteria, flat EUR drawdown caps) are funded on day 29 with a 70/30 profit split.

SDK v0.5.3. Pip-installable from PyPI. Adds walk-forward CV (walk_forward), era-aware scoring (spearman_per_era), tournament round + submission-slot discovery (get_current_round, get_submission_slot, list_rounds), per-round qualification status (get_round_status), and a ampion selftest console script for one-line install verification. The v0.4.1 4-scalar submission contract (delivery_ts, da_forecast, imbalance_forecast, size_signal, bid_offset) is unchanged.

Round 1 specifics (launches 2026-07-01). bid_offset is frozen at 0 for Round 1 — the backend ignores any trader-submitted value and the upload response surfaces bid_offset_override_applied: true so callers can confirm the freeze. See Round 1 rulebook below for the six passing criteria.

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Quick Start

pip install ampion>=0.5.3
export AMPION_API_KEY=ampn_...           # from app.ampiontrading.com/settings
ampion selftest                          # verify install + backend reachability

If pre-PyPI install needed: pip install git+https://github.com/RathishanM/Ampion.git#subdirectory=ampion-api.

import ampion

napi = ampion.AmpionAPI()
model = napi.create_model("my-gbm")
train = napi.download_dataset("v1/train.parquet")
# ... fit model on train, produce a v0.4 4-scalar predictions DataFrame ...
napi.upload_predictions(preds, model_id=model["id"])

# Check your Round 1 progress at any time:
status = napi.get_round_status()                 # current round
print(status["round_status"], status["profit_pct"], status["criteria"])

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Notebooks

The fastest way to learn the platform — each notebook runs top to bottom against live data.

Notebook	What you'll build
01_hello_ampion.ipynb	Auth, download data, submit a baseline prediction
02_wind_signal.ipynb	Multi-signal wind/solar/load strategy with seasonal calibration
03_ml_model.ipynb	Gradient-boosted model with time-series CV and confidence gating
04_ensemble.ipynb	Ensemble three models, show the composite beats any single one

pip install "ampion-api[notebooks]"
jupyter notebook notebooks/

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Full Example

import pandas as pd
import ampion

napi = ampion.AmpionAPI()   # AMPION_API_KEY env var, or pass api_key=...

# 1. Register a model (once)
napi.create_model("my-gbm", description="GBM on wind + solar signals")

# 2. Download 2+ years of training data
train = napi.download_dataset("v1/train.parquet")

# 3. Train your model (use any framework)
# ... your model code here ...

# 4. Download live data for the current week
live = napi.download_dataset("v1/live.parquet")

# 5. Generate predictions (v0.4 4-scalar canonical shape)
predictions = pd.DataFrame({
    "delivery_ts":       live["delivery_ts"],
    "da_forecast":       [82.4, 75.1,  0.0, ...],  # EUR/MWh
    "imbalance_forecast":  [88.1, 79.3,  0.0, ...],  # EUR/MWh
    "size_signal":       [0.72, 0.68, 0.0, ...],   # [0, 1] -- 0 = forecast-only, no bid
    "bid_offset":        [0.30, 0.65, 0.0, ...],   # [0, 1] -- 0=safer fill at imbalance side, 1=aggressive at DA side
})

# 6. Submit
napi.upload_predictions(predictions, model_id="my-gbm")

# 7. Check the leaderboard
print(napi.get_leaderboard())

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Authentication

The client picks up your API key in this order:

1. api_key=... passed to AmpionAPI()
2. AMPION_API_KEY environment variable

napi = ampion.AmpionAPI()                        # env var
napi = ampion.AmpionAPI(api_key="vlt_...")       # explicit
napi = ampion.AmpionAPI()                        # no key -> only public endpoints work
print(napi.get_leaderboard(10))                  # leaderboard is public, no key needed

Create or revoke keys at app.ampiontrading.com/settings.

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Helpers

• ampion.walk_forward(df, ...) — walk-forward CV iterator over eras
• ampion.spearman_per_era(preds, labels, eras) — era-aware scoring
• ampion.xy(df, target) — split a DataFrame into X / y for a given target
• ampion.feature_cols(df) / ampion.target_cols(df) — column accessors
• AmpionAPI.get_current_round() / get_submission_slot() / list_rounds() — round + slot discovery
• AmpionAPI.diagnostics() / download_meta_model() / get_model_mmc() — post-Round-1 diagnostics (HTTP 202 pre-launch)

See strategy-template/tournament_bot.py for a working end-to-end daily bot using these helpers.

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Datasets

Dataset	Period	Rows	Targets included
v1/train.parquet	2021-01-01 to (today - 2 - 91 days)	growing, ~46k by mid-2026	Yes
v1/validation.parquet	rolling last 91 days, ending (today - 2)	~2.2k	Yes
v1/live.parquet	next delivery day	24	No (target NaN by invariant)

The validation slice rolls forward daily and is exactly 13 weeks long, matching cv_protocol.val_size_hours (2184h). Your local Spearman / Sharpe on the validation slice should track what we score you on at submission.

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Data Schema (v0.4.1, 132 cols)

The full canonical contract lives at backend/market_data/tournament/schema.yaml. Summary:

Group	Cols	Examples
Meta	4	era, delivery_ts, delivery_date, delivery_hour
Targets	2	target_da_price_eur_mwh, target_imbalance_actual_eur_mwh
ENTSO-E forecasts (lag1)	4	feature_fcst_load_lag1_mw, feature_fcst_wind_onshore_lag1_mw, feature_fcst_wind_offshore_lag1_mw, feature_fcst_solar_lag1_mw
ENTSO-E realized (lag2/lag7)	8	feature_actual_load_lag2_mw ... feature_actual_solar_lag7_mw
Neighbor DA (6 zones × 2 lags)	12	feature_neighbor_<fr/nl/be/dk1/at/ch>_da_lag1, _lag7
Weather forecast (5 cities × 2 vars + 3 wind + 2 solar clusters)	15	feature_weather_temp_berlin_k, feature_weather_wind_100m_northsea_ms, feature_weather_ghi_bavaria_wm2
Weather realized lag1 (ERA5 mirror)	15	same names + _lag1 suffix
Fuels	3	feature_fuel_ttf_eur_mwh, feature_fuel_eua_eur_t, feature_fuel_eurusd
Calendar	10	feature_cal_hour, feature_cal_dow, feature_cal_is_holiday_de, feature_cal_dst_flag, ...
Gas storage	1	feature_regime_gas_storage_pct
v0.4 add-ons (49)
Multimodel forecasts (4 models × 5 clusters)	20	feature_wind_<cluster>_<ecmwf/gfs/arpege/cma>_ms, feature_ghi_*_wm2
DE DA price lags	3	feature_da_price_de_lag1/2/7_eur_mwh
reBAP lag1	1	feature_rebap_lag1_eur_mwh (populated_from 2023-01-02)
Conventional generation (6 fuels × 2 lags)	12	feature_actual_lignite_lag2_mw, feature_actual_nuclear_lag7_mw, ...
FR nuclear lags	2	feature_actual_nuclear_fr_lag1/lag7_mw
Forecast lag2	4	feature_fcst_<load/wind_*/solar>_lag2_mw
Astronomical	2	feature_astro_solar_elevation_deg, feature_astro_day_of_year
Neighbor holidays	3	feature_cal_is_holiday_<fr/nl/ch>
Coverage indicator flags	2	feature_open_meteo_available, feature_rebap_available

Coverage caveats (canonical-facts.yaml > tournament_pipeline.v0_4_planned_features):

• target_imbalance_actual_eur_mwh + reBAP cols populated from 2023-01-01 (post-harmonization regime, ENTSO-E A85 publishes cleanly)
• Multimodel cols populated per-model: GFS from 2021-03-23, ARPEGE Eu from 2022-11-13, CMA from 2023-12-31, ECMWF IFS from 2024-02-03
• DE nuclear lag2/lag7 populated 2021-01-01 to 2023-04-15 (DE nuclear exit), NaN after
• Tree models (XGBoost / LightGBM / CatBoost) handle NaN natively. The two feature_*_available 0/1 flags are explicit regime indicators (ml-expert leakage mitigation for tree default-direction learning).

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Prediction Format (v0.4 -- 4-scalar canonical)

Your predictions DataFrame needs five columns:

Column	Type	Values
delivery_ts	tz-aware Timestamp	Match delivery_ts from live.parquet (one row per delivery hour, 23-25 per day depending on DST)
da_forecast	float	Predicted DA clearing price, EUR/MWh
imbalance_forecast	float	Predicted balance/imbalance settlement price, EUR/MWh
size_signal	float	[0, 1]. Drives size (0.1-1.0 MWh) + bid-or-skip. size_signal = 0 = forecast-only, no bid placed this hour.
bid_offset	float	[0, 1]. Placement of bid inside the [imbalance_forecast, da_forecast] interval. 0 bids at imbalance_forecast (safer fill), 1 bids at da_forecast (aggressive entry). Ignored when size_signal = 0.

Derived server-side (not submitted): bid_price = imbalance_forecast - bid_offset * (imbalance_forecast - da_forecast), size_mwh = clamp(size_signal, 0.1, 1.0), direction = long if imbalance_forecast > da_forecast else short.

Forecasts are scored (MAE + per-era Spearman + orthogonal alpha) on every submitted hour -- including size_signal = 0 forecast-only hours. P&L is computed from the position taken (direction × (imbalance_actual - da_actual) × size_mwh).

The legacy v0.2 shape (timestamp, direction, volume, confidence) is rejected by upload_predictions() with an explicit migration error pointing here.

Naming note (2026-04-25). size_signal and bid_offset were originally named confidence and aggressiveness. Renamed because the old names biased traders toward one specific derivation (Kelly fraction, fill-rate-vs-margin framing). The new names describe the mechanical role only -- what the field drives in the formula. Derivation is up to the trader.

How traders typically derive size_signal and bid_offset

Both fields are mechanical scalars in [0, 1], not constraints on derivation. Ampion ships data, not analysis; the four scalars your model produces can come from any source: predictive uncertainty, RL policy output, regime classifier, calibrated probabilities, hand-tuned heuristics.

The recommended (default) framing for getting started:

• size_signal = Kelly-style position-size signal. Proportional to your model's estimated edge (|imbalance_forecast - da_forecast|) divided by your forecast uncertainty (model quantile spread, ensemble disagreement across NWP models, or regime-rarity / out-of-distribution score). High when the spread is large AND the model is confident AND the regime is well-represented in training; low otherwise.
• bid_offset = inverse of spread-magnitude confidence. Wide + confident spread → LOW bid_offset (bid near imbalance_forecast, capture more margin per MWh; only fill if the market really comes). Narrow OR uncertain spread → HIGH bid_offset (bid near da_forecast, accept smaller margin, ensure fill).

Worked examples for two canonical hours:

Delivery hour	DA forecast	Balance forecast	Spread	NWP agreement	Recommended size_signal	Recommended bid_offset	Why
Sunday h13 (sunny)	5 EUR/MWh	-10 EUR/MWh	-15 (short)	High (solar consensus)	0.85	0.4	Already short at -4 EUR/MWh after the give-up; well-understood regime
Monday h19 (after low-wind Sunday)	180 EUR/MWh	220 EUR/MWh	+40 (long)	Low (ICON-D2 disagrees on residual wind)	0.5	0.7	Want fill confirmation; balance tail risk real but you are buying the spread, not the absolute level

Alternative interpretations a trader's model might use instead:

• size_signal from an out-of-distribution score, calibrated direction-probability, RL bandit policy, or rank-percentile of expected P&L across the 24 hours.
• bid_offset from quantile-interval position, regime-conditional fixed scalars, or a function of recent fill rate.

All produce a number in [0, 1]. The server formula does not care where the number comes from. See docs/canonical-facts.yaml > submission for the full list of alternative interpretations the canonical contract recognizes.

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Evaluation Rules

• 5 pass criteria over the 28-day window: Sharpe > 1.0, cumulative P&L > 0, orthogonal alpha > 0, ≥ 20 of 28 FILLED days (days with at least one filled hour), forecast-accuracy criterion as published on the platform.
• Drawdown caps during evaluation (flat EUR, not percentages): €500 daily + €1,000 total. Breach of either ends the evaluation immediately.
• Submission window: one payload per day before T-1 11:55 CET for delivery on day T. The DA auction is sealed-bid.
• Retake: 24-hour cooldown between evaluation attempts. Each retake is a fresh €199.
• Full terms: website/trader-agreement.html.

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Round 1 specifics (2026-07-01 → 2026-07-29)

Round 1 is the first paid evaluation of the Ampion tournament. The rules below are specific to this round and live alongside the general-evaluation framing above. The canonical source is docs/round-1-rulebook.md; this section mirrors the SDK-facing parts.

bid_offset is frozen at 0

# This still works — bid_offset stays in the v0.4 contract for SDK
# back-compat, but during Round 1 the backend overrides the value.
preds["bid_offset"] = 0.5
napi.upload_predictions(preds, model_id=model["id"])
# Response:
# {"status": "accepted", "round_number": 1,
#  "bid_offset_override_applied": true,        # <- Round 1 freeze applied
#  ...}

The trader-submitted bid_offset is ignored; every bid is placed at imbalance_forecast (the max-margin / lowest-fill end of the forecast interval). Returns the v0.5.3 upload response field bid_offset_override_applied: true. From Round 2 onward, bid_offset is honoured again — start treating it as a working parameter when you see round_number == 2 in the upload response.

Six passing criteria (replacing the 5-criteria sandbox model)

#	Criterion	Threshold	SDK display via get_round_status()
1	Profit	profit_pct >= 5	criteria.profit_target
2	Max daily loss	|daily P&L %| <= 5	criteria.max_daily_loss
3	Max drawdown	peak-to-trough <= 10 %	criteria.max_drawdown
4	Days submitted	>= 20 of 28 FILLED days	criteria.days_submitted (null until settle)
5	CORR	Spearman > 0.05 (≥ 50 FILLED hours)	criteria.corr
6	Direction accuracy	>= 52 % of FILLED hours	criteria.direction_accuracy

Plus the 30 % single-day concentration forfeit: the portion of any single day's P&L that exceeds 30 % of total round P&L is forfeit when computing criterion 1. The forfeit only kicks in at evaluation time; your real-time profit_pct mid-round is the raw value.

Checking your progress

status = napi.get_round_status()                # current round, default
# Or explicitly:
status = napi.get_round_status(round_number=1)

print(status["round_status"])                   # 'in_progress' | 'qualified' | 'failed' | 'not_started'
print(status["profit_pct"], status["max_drawdown_pct"])
for name, crit in status["criteria"].items():
    print(name, crit["value"], "->", crit["threshold"], crit["passing"])

While the round is in progress, end-of-round-only criteria (days_submitted) return passing: null with a "Round in progress" note. Final pass/fail is determined when the round settles (round_close + 24 hours).

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API Reference

napi = AmpionAPI(api_key=None, base_url=None)     # env-var auth by default

# Datasets
napi.download_dataset(version, dest_path, save_file)
napi.dataset_info()                # public manifest: products, splits, schema, deadlines
napi.data_mode()                   # 'live' | 'placeholder' | 'unknown' (last download)
napi.health_data()                 # public pipeline health -- last live, last train, ticks pulse

# Predictions
napi.upload_predictions(predictions_df, model_id)
napi.list_submissions(model_id=None, limit=50)
napi.submission_status(submission_id)

# Models
napi.create_model(name, description)
napi.list_models()
napi.get_model_performance(model_id)
napi.get_model_scores(model_id, limit=90)

# Leaderboard + rounds
napi.get_leaderboard(top_n=50, window_days=28)    # public, no key needed
napi.get_round_info()                             # current round_date + 11:55 CET deadline

Data mode

Every download_dataset() response carries an X-Ampion-Data-Mode header (live or placeholder). The SDK stamps this on the client object so trader code can gate production submissions on real data:

df = napi.download_dataset("v1/train.parquet")
assert napi.data_mode() == "live", "Refusing to submit on placeholder data"

History offset for full-history downloads

The training parquet starts at 2021-01-01 (fixed) and ends at (today − 2 − 91 days). The 91 days at the end is the rolling validation slice. The upstream ingestion pulls 14 days before the first delivery row to populate the _lag7 feature columns (7-day lag + 1-day forecast lag + 6-day buffer). The offset is upstream of the trader; the file you download already starts at 2021-01-01 with all lag columns populated. See backend/market_data/tournament/orchestrator.py:52 and backend/market_data/tournament/schema.yaml > training_window.

Convenience helpers:

import pandas as pd
from ampion import get_live_data, get_training_data

live  = get_live_data(api_key)
train = get_training_data(api_key)
pred  = pd.DataFrame({
    "delivery_ts":        live["delivery_ts"],   # UTC ISO, matches live.parquet
    "da_forecast":        da_forecast_eur,       # EUR/MWh predicted DA clear
    "imbalance_forecast": imb_forecast_eur,      # EUR/MWh predicted settlement
    "size_signal":        size_signal,           # [0, 1]; 0 = forecast-only
    "bid_offset":         bid_offset,            # [0, 1]; server derives bid_price
})

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Installation

# Core (download data, submit predictions)
pip install git+https://github.com/RathishanM/Ampion.git#subdirectory=ampion-api

# With ML dependencies (numpy, scikit-learn)
pip install "git+https://github.com/RathishanM/Ampion.git#subdirectory=ampion-api[ml]"

# With Jupyter + ML for running the notebook ladder
pip install "git+https://github.com/RathishanM/Ampion.git#subdirectory=ampion-api[notebooks]"

PyPI release is pending. Once published, you'll be able to pip install ampion-api directly.

Requires Python 3.9+.

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Links

• Ampion Platform
• Leaderboard
• GitHub repo
• Report an issue

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License

MIT