Antecedent

Antecedent is an identification-first causal inference engine for Python (with a native Rust core). It takes an analysis from causal structure through estimation, diagnostics, interventions, and counterfactuals — without silently treating discovered graphs as ground truth.

Use it when you need a causal effect you can defend: identification is checked before anything is estimated, refuters run against the estimate by default, and uncertainty about the causal graph — a CPDAG, a PAG, a posterior over graphs — is carried through to the effect instead of being resolved by fiat.

Requires CPython 3.11–3.14. Install from PyPI:

pip install antecedent

Paste this block and run it. It simulates a confounded dataset, checks that the effect is identified, estimates it, and runs refuters against the estimate:

import numpy as np
from antecedent import AverageEffect, analyze

rng = np.random.default_rng(0)
n = 2000
season = rng.normal(size=n)                               # confounder
price = 0.7 * season + rng.normal(size=n)                 # treatment
sales = 1.5 * price + 2.0 * season + rng.normal(size=n)   # outcome, true effect = 1.5

result = analyze(
    data={"season": season, "price": price, "sales": sales},
    graph=[("season", "price"), ("season", "sales"), ("price", "sales")],
    query=AverageEffect(treatment="price", outcome="sales"),
)

print(result.identification)   # NonparametricallyIdentified via backdoor.adjustment, adjusting for season
print(result.estimate)         # ate=1.48, analytic and bootstrap standard errors
print(result.validation)       # refuters ran and passed

The same analyze() call scales from this to temporal dose × horizon ResponseCurve surfaces, pulse and sustained contrasts, Bayesian graph-posterior mixtures that report unidentified structure mass, mediation, counterfactuals, and root-cause attribution — see the project README for worked examples and the documentation for the full API.

Development

For local development you need a Rust 1.85 toolchain. CI builds and smoke-tests wheels for the supported CPython range on Linux x86_64/aarch64 (manylinux), macOS arm64, and Windows x86_64 (default faer path; no system BLAS). Tagged releases publish wheels to PyPI and GitHub Release assets (see docs/development.md).

cd python
uv venv && source .venv/bin/activate
uv sync --group dev
maturin develop
pytest

Lint and types (local gate only — not part of wheel CI):

bash ../scripts/gate_python_lint.sh   # ruff check/format + mypy

Public API

Primary entry point is the OO facade:

import antecedent

g = antecedent.Dag.from_edges(["z", "t", "y"], [("z", "t"), ("z", "y"), ("t", "y")])
result = antecedent.analyze(
    data,  # dict[str, array] or pandas DataFrame
    graph=g,  # or an edge list
    query=antecedent.AverageEffect(treatment="t", outcome="y"),
    inference=antecedent.Frequentist(),  # or antecedent.Bayesian(...)
)
print(result.identification, result.estimate, result.validation)

# Identify without estimating:
id_only = antecedent.identify(
    graph=g,
    query=antecedent.AverageEffect(treatment="t", outcome="y"),
    identifier=antecedent.Identifier.BACKDOOR_ADJUSTMENT,
)

gcm = antecedent.model.fit_gcm(["z", "t", "y"], columns, list(g.edges()))
draws = gcm.sample_do({"t": 1.0}, n=200)

# Or discover then fit (never invents orientations; refuses incomplete PAG/FCI):
fitted, edges = antecedent.gcm.fit_gcm_discovered(
    data, discovery=antecedent.discovery.PC(alpha=0.05)
)

The root namespace remains frozen at 49 names in 1.2. Temporal response attachments use existing query types without adding root exports. Everything else is reached through a stage module (antecedent.discovery, antecedent.priors, antecedent.errors, …).

Also exposed:

Typed graphs: Dag / Cpdag / Pag / Admg / TemporalDag (d_separated / latent_project on Dag; m_separated on Admg / Pag)
Identifier / Estimator enums (wire ids) plus string kwargs
identify(graph=…, query=AverageEffect(…)) — identify without estimating
Queries: AverageEffect, MediationEffect, Counterfactual, PulseEffect, SustainedEffect, InterventionalDistribution, PathSpecificEffect, ConditionalEffect, TemporalMediationEffect, InterventionResponse, plus the response family (ResponseCurve, AverageDerivative, PointDerivative, Elasticity, SemiElasticity, DirectionalDerivative, ResponseJacobian). Temporal dose × horizon uses the same ResponseCurve / InterventionResponse types with keyword-only horizons, policy, and treatment_lag (see examples/python/temporal_response_curve.py).
antecedent.discovery — PC, GES, LiNGAM, NOTEARS, FCI/RFCI, PCMCI family, Bayesian posteriors
antecedent.validation.validate_pcmci_* — discovery stability (block bootstrap, FPR, grids, …)
antecedent.model / antecedent.counterfactual — FittedGcm, sample_do, counterfactual_ite
antecedent.population — PopulationRegistry / target_* for named predicates and custom-distribution IPW
antecedent.gcm — fit_gcm_discovered / attribute_*_discovered discover-then-attribute composition
antecedent.state.CausalState — incremental state with retained batches, events, suff-stats, particle filter
refute="full"|"placebo"|False on static analyze (refute=True is a TypeError; leave it unset for the licensed default). Static and temporal ResponseCurve / InterventionResponse license validation none only; requesting a scalar refuter suite raises CausalUnsupportedError.
RD: estimator="rd.sharp" with running_variable / cutoff / bandwidth
Graph interchange on the classes: Dag.from_dot / .to_dot and the JSON / GML / NetworkX peers
Design / state examples: examples/python/rank_designs.py, examples/python/causal_state_workflow.py, examples/python/temporal_response_curve.py (see ADR 0016 — no auto-rerun); catalog in examples/README.md

Build artifacts (_native.*.so) are gitignored; always maturin develop (or install a wheel) on a fresh checkout.

In 1.2, antecedent.estimation.PreparedAnalysis also supports the licensed Bayesian conditional, temporal-mediation and response forms, and multi-step SustainedEffect(..., window=(-2, -1)). Choose the validation suite when preparing these analyses; second-click refute() remains AverageEffect-only. export_artifact() retains the fitted posterior or response, while export_artifact(payload="query") retains the original query kind and variable IDs. Scalar posterior exports do not include the complete assumption or validation ledger; retain the analysis result alongside them. See the 1.2 evidence ledger for model restrictions and evidence.

Typed exceptions (CausalError and subclasses) mirror Rust CausalError categories. The native module antecedent._native remains available for advanced FFI use (including the flat AteAnalysisResult DTO; prefer nested AnalysisResult).

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antecedent 1.2.0

Antecedent

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