cascading-tipping-utac

GenesisAeon Package 87 — the real, published Wunderling et al. tipping-element interaction network (Greenland Ice Sheet / West Antarctic Ice Sheet / AMOC / Amazon rainforest). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge beyond what the cited papers themselves quantify — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• Wunderling et al. 2021 (Earth System Dynamics 12, 601-619): the real, documented pairwise coupling structure and mechanisms between four tipping elements, including two interactions the paper itself flags as having an unclear net sign.
• Wunderling et al. 2021: interactions reduce the effective critical temperature for AMOC/WAIS tipping by ~55%/~40% at maximum coupling.
• Wunderling et al. 2022 (Nature Climate Change): temporary warming overshoot scenarios can increase cascade risk by up to 72% vs. non-overshoot scenarios.
• Wunderling et al. 2024 review and Rocha et al. 2018 (Science) cited as real related context.

Why no extension to our own packages

permafrost-utac and carbon-sinks-utac are real GenesisAeon packages, but they are not part of Wunderling's validated four-element network. Connecting them here would be an unvalidated extension of this package's own invention — exactly the kind of forced bridge this ecosystem's climate-topic convention (see PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md) avoids by default.

Quickstart

pip install cascading-tipping-utac

from cascading_tipping_utac import TippingNetwork

net = TippingNetwork()
print(net.summary())

for c in net.destabilizing_couplings():
    print(f"{c.source} -> {c.target}: {c.mechanism}")

for c in net.unclear_sign_couplings():
    print(f"{c.source} -> {c.target} (sign unclear): {c.mechanism}")

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.