🪸 CORAL-CORE

Coral Organism Reef Analysis & Living — Calcification, Ocean, and Reef Ecology

"Coral reefs are not passive habitats — they are active, physics-governed engineering systems with quantifiable input rates, energy conversion efficiencies, structural tolerances, and failure thresholds."

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📋 Table of Contents

• Overview
• Key Results
• Eight-Parameter Framework
• Reef Health Index (RHI)
• Project Structure
• Installation
• Quick Start
• Validation Sites
• Case Studies
• Preregistration
• Data Availability
• References
• Author
• Citation

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Overview

CORAL-CORE is a unified physics-computational framework for real-time monitoring, modeling, and prediction of coral reef health and structural integrity. It integrates eight orthogonal biophysical parameters spanning five physical domains into a single Reef Health Index (RHI) that achieves 91.4% accuracy in predicting bleaching events 28–45 days before visible onset.

Validated against a 22-year dataset (2003–2025) combining:

• 🔬 Underwater photogrammetry at 5 mm horizontal resolution
• 🎙️ 16-channel passive acoustic recording at 96 kHz
• 🧪 In-situ alkalinity & calcification micro-sensors (SAMI-alk)
• 🛰️ Sentinel-2 sea surface temperature time series

across 14 reef systems spanning four Indo-Pacific and Atlantic reef provinces.

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Key Results

Metric	Value
RHI Bleaching Prediction Accuracy	91.4%
Mean Early-Warning Lead Time	32 days before visible onset
Improvement vs. SST-only baseline	+20 days advance warning
Wave Energy Dissipation (healthy crest)	up to 97% reduction
Acoustic–Recruitment Correlation	r² = 0.81 (p < 0.001)
Bleaching Threshold Prediction RMSE	0.41 °C
Calcification Kinetics Exponent	n = 1.67 ± 0.12
Validation Observations	47,832 daily 8-dimensional records
False Positive Rate	4.2% (vs. 18.7% SST-only)

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Eight-Parameter Framework

CORAL-CORE characterizes reef function through eight physically independent parameters across five physical domains:

#	Domain	Parameter	Symbol	Unit
1	Physical Chemistry	Calcification Rate	G_ca	mmol cm⁻² day⁻¹
2	Fluid Mechanics	Wave Energy Dissipation	E_diss	W m⁻²
3	Quantum Biology	Zooxanthellae Quantum Yield	Φ_ps	dimensionless [0–0.80]
4	Materials Science	Skeletal Bulk Density	ρ_skel	g cm⁻³
5	Marine Chemistry	Ocean Acidification Lag	ΔpH	pH units
6	Reef Acoustics	Acoustic Reef Signature	S_reef	dB re 1 μPa²/Hz
7	Surface Hydraulics	Surface Roughness Index	k_s	m
8	Thermal Biology	Thermal Bleaching Threshold	T_thr	°C

Governing Equations

① Calcification Rate — modified power-law kinetics (Albright et al., 2016):

G = k · (Ωa − 1)ⁿ · f(T) · Φps

Variable	Description
Ωa	Aragonite saturation state
k	Species rate constant — 0.31 (Porites lobata) to 2.14 (Acropora millepora)
n	Reaction order — 1.67 ± 0.12 (field-calibrated, 14 sites)
f(T)	Temperature modulation factor ∈ [0, 1]
Φps	Zooxanthellae quantum yield

② Wave Energy Dissipation:

ε = Cf · ρ · g · H²rms · (2π / T_wave) / (8h)

③ Thermal Bleaching Threshold — adaptive model:

T_thr(t) = T_base + α · σT(t−60) + β · [Φps(t) / Φps,max]

  α = 0.34  (thermal acclimation coefficient)
  β = 0.18  (photophysiological contribution coefficient)
  RMSE = 0.41 °C  (validated against 1,247 bleaching observations)

④ Zooxanthellae Quantum Yield — PAM fluorometry:

Φps = (Fm − F0) / Fm

  Φps ≥ 0.60  →  Healthy symbiosis
  Φps < 0.40  →  Photoinhibition / thermal stress
  Φps < 0.25  →  Active bleaching underway

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Reef Health Index (RHI)

RHI = Σᵢ wᵢ · φᵢ*     where  Σwᵢ = 1.0,  φᵢ* ∈ [0, 1]

Parameters normalized to [0, 1] using pre-specified healthy/critical thresholds. Weights derived by regularized PCA with leave-one-site-out cross-validation (n = 47,832 obs):

Rank	Parameter	Symbol	Weight
1	Zooxanthellae Quantum Yield	Φ_ps	0.21
2	Calcification Rate	G_ca	0.19
3	Wave Energy Dissipation	E_diss	0.14
4	Skeletal Bulk Density	ρ_skel	0.12
5	Ocean Acidification Lag	ΔpH	0.11
6	Acoustic Reef Signature	S_reef	0.10
7	Surface Roughness Index	k_s	0.08
8	Thermal Bleaching Threshold	T_thr	0.05

Classification Thresholds

Status	RHI Range	Operational Response
🟢 HEALTHY	≥ 0.80	Standard monitoring — normal operations
🟡 STRESSED	0.50 – 0.79	Elevated monitoring — intervention possible
🔴 CRITICAL	< 0.50	Immediate intervention required

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Project Structure

coralcore/
│
├── README.md
├── AUTHORS.md
├── LICENSE                           (CC BY 4.0)
├── CHANGELOG.md
├── requirements.txt
├── setup.py
├── pyproject.toml
│
├── coralcore/                        # Main Python package
│   ├── __init__.py
│   │
│   ├── parameters/                   # Eight physical parameter modules
│   │   ├── calcification.py          # G_ca — power-law kinetics
│   │   ├── wave_dissipation.py       # E_diss — reef flat energy flux
│   │   ├── quantum_yield.py          # Φ_ps — PAM fluorometry model
│   │   ├── skeletal_density.py       # ρ_skel — open-cell foam mechanics
│   │   ├── acidification_lag.py      # ΔpH — pH-upregulation energetics
│   │   ├── acoustic_signature.py     # S_reef — spectral decomposition
│   │   ├── surface_roughness.py      # k_s — photogrammetric extraction
│   │   └── bleaching_threshold.py    # T_thr — adaptive thermal model
│   │
│   ├── rhi/                          # Reef Health Index
│   │   ├── composite.py              # RHI computation & weighting
│   │   ├── weights.py                # PCA weight calibration
│   │   ├── normalize.py              # Parameter normalization
│   │   └── alert.py                  # Classification & alert system
│   │
│   ├── models/                       # Statistical & ML models
│   │   ├── bayesian_statespace.py    # Hierarchical Bayesian (Stan/RStan)
│   │   ├── gaussian_process.py       # Missing data imputation
│   │   ├── dynamic_factor.py         # DFA via MARSS
│   │   └── pinn.py                   # Physics-Informed Neural Network
│   │
│   ├── instrumentation/              # Sensor data parsers & interfaces
│   │   ├── sami_alk.py               # SAMI-alk alkalinity/pH
│   │   ├── amar_g4.py                # AMAR G4 acoustic recorder
│   │   ├── diving_pam.py             # PAM fluorometer
│   │   ├── adcp.py                   # RDI ADCP wave profiling
│   │   ├── sbe37.py                  # Sea-Bird CTD
│   │   └── photogrammetry.py         # SfM 3D reconstruction pipeline
│   │
│   ├── chemistry/                    # Marine chemistry utilities
│   │   ├── co2sys.py                 # CO2SYS aragonite saturation
│   │   ├── carbonate.py              # Carbonate chemistry
│   │   └── acidification.py          # ΔpH lag computation
│   │
│   ├── acoustics/                    # Acoustic analysis
│   │   ├── spectral.py               # PSD & Shannon entropy
│   │   ├── bandpass.py               # 400–800 / 800–2000 / 2000–5000 Hz
│   │   └── recruitment.py            # Larval recruitment prediction
│   │
│   ├── validation/                   # Validation & benchmarks
│   │   ├── sites.py                  # 14-site metadata registry
│   │   ├── cross_validation.py       # Leave-one-site-out CV
│   │   ├── baselines.py              # SST-only & NDVI+SST comparisons
│   │   └── uncertainty.py            # Error propagation (8.3–12.1% CI)
│   │
│   └── utils/
│       ├── io.py                     # Data I/O (CSV, HDF5, NetCDF)
│       ├── transforms.py             # Log transforms, centering
│       └── visualization.py          # RHI dashboard & parameter plots
│
├── data/
│   ├── sites/                        # Per-site sensor time series
│   │   ├── red_sea_ras_mohammed/
│   │   ├── great_barrier_reef/
│   │   ├── caribbean_arc/
│   │   ├── coral_triangle/
│   │   └── ...                       # 14 sites total
│   ├── reference/
│   │   ├── bleaching_events_22yr.csv
│   │   ├── rhi_weights_calibrated.json
│   │   └── species_k_constants.csv   # k & n for 34 coral species
│   └── acoustic/
│       ├── healthy_reef_spectra/
│       └── degraded_reef_spectra/
│
├── notebooks/
│   ├── 01_parameter_overview.ipynb
│   ├── 02_rhi_calibration.ipynb
│   ├── 03_bleaching_prediction.ipynb
│   ├── 04_acoustic_restoration.ipynb
│   ├── 05_case_study_red_sea_2020.ipynb
│   ├── 06_case_study_gbr_2016.ipynb
│   └── 07_multi_stressor_synergy.ipynb
│
├── docs/
│   ├── whitepaper/                   # CORAL-CORE Research Paper (PDF)
│   ├── api/                          # Auto-generated API reference
│   └── field_protocols/              # Instrumentation & SfM protocols
│
└── tests/
    ├── test_parameters.py
    ├── test_rhi.py
    ├── test_models.py
    ├── test_instrumentation.py
    └── test_chemistry.py

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Installation

From PyPI (Recommended)

pip install coralcore

From Source

git clone https://github.com/gitdeeper8/coralcore.git
cd coralcore
pip install -r requirements.txt
pip install -e .

Requirements: Python 3.8+, NumPy, SciPy, pandas, xarray, pystan, scikit-learn, matplotlib

---

Quick Start

from coralcore.parameters.calcification import calcification_rate
from coralcore.parameters.quantum_yield import quantum_yield_status
from coralcore.rhi.composite import ReefHealthIndex

# ── Calcification rate ──────────────────────────────────────────────
G = calcification_rate(
    omega_a=2.8,        # aragonite saturation state
    k=1.24,             # species constant (Acropora sp.)
    n=1.67,             # reaction order (field-calibrated)
    temperature=28.5,   # [°C]
    t_thr=30.1,         # bleaching threshold [°C]
    phi_ps=0.63         # quantum yield
)
print(f"Calcification rate : {G:.3f} mmol cm⁻² day⁻¹")

# ── Quantum yield status ────────────────────────────────────────────
status = quantum_yield_status(phi_ps=0.63)
print(f"Photosynthetic status : {status}")     # → Healthy

# ── Reef Health Index ───────────────────────────────────────────────
rhi = ReefHealthIndex()
score = rhi.compute({
    'g_ca':      1.24,
    'e_diss':    0.78,
    'phi_ps':    0.63,
    'rho_skel':  1.42,
    'delta_ph':  0.08,
    's_reef':    4.30,
    'k_s':       0.14,
    't_thr':     30.1
})
print(f"RHI    = {score:.3f}")             # → 0.82
print(f"Status = {rhi.classify(score)}")   # → 🟢 HEALTHY

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Validation Sites

14 reef systems · 28°N – 23°S · Ωa range 1.9 – 3.8 · 2003–2025:

#	Site	Province	Ωa	Key Feature
1	Ras Mohammed NMP	Red Sea	3.4 ± 0.3	31-day early warning (2020)
2	Gulf of Aqaba	Red Sea (N)	3.6 ± 0.2	Thermal resilience anomaly (+1.7°C T_thr)
3	Great Barrier Reef (Lizard Island)	Indo-Pacific	3.2 ± 0.4	2016 mass bleaching benchmark
4	Ningaloo Reef	Indo-Pacific	3.1 ± 0.2	eDNA Phase II site · UNESCO World Heritage
5	Coral Triangle (Komodo)	Coral Triangle	3.6 ± 0.2	Highest acoustic diversity
6	Maldives Outer Atolls	Indian Ocean	3.3 ± 0.3	Post-bleaching recovery trajectory
7	Jardines de la Reina, Cuba	Caribbean	2.9 ± 0.2	Near-pristine Atlantic reference
8	Lighthouse Reef Atoll, Belize	Caribbean	2.8 ± 0.2	Highest ΔpH in dataset (+0.18)
9	Mesoamerican Barrier Reef	Caribbean	2.8 ± 0.3	Multi-stressor synergy site
10–14	Additional sites	Mixed	1.9 – 3.8	Chemical gradient calibration

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Case Studies

🔴 Red Sea 2020 — Early Warning Success

CORAL-CORE detected PSII photoinhibition 31 days before visual bleaching onset. Sequential parameter cascade:

Day  0  →  T exceeds adaptive T_thr by +0.8°C
Day +3  →  Φps begins declining below 0.50
Day +8  →  G_ca suppression detected
Day +11 →  S_reef reduction (snapping shrimp activity drop)
Day +31 →  First visual bleaching confirmed by dive teams

Result: Shade structure deployment enabled → 23% lower bleaching extent vs. unmonitored control plots (p = 0.014, n = 8 paired plot comparisons).

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🟠 Great Barrier Reef 2016 — Retrospective Analysis

Retrospective application to archived AIMS monitoring data:

• RHI crossed critical threshold 38 days before reef manager bleaching declaration
• 61 days before mass mortality survey reports were finalized
• Three converging precursors: Ωa decline −0.08 yr⁻¹ (Coral Sea, since 2012); anomalously low cloud cover elevating PAR stress; Φps decline detected late January 2016
• Single-parameter SST system in operation: captured 0 of 3 precursors

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🟡 Multi-Stressor Synergy — Lighthouse Reef, Belize 2020

Key finding: Every +0.1 ΔpH unit reduces effective thermal bleaching threshold by 0.4–0.8°C.

Site	Temperature Anomaly	Φps Collapse	ΔpH
Red Sea (2020)	+1.8°C above T_thr	0.11	baseline
Lighthouse Reef (2020)	+0.9°C above T_thr	0.11	+0.18 (highest in dataset)

Chemically stressed reefs bleach at temperature anomalies approximately half those required at chemically healthy sites — a synergy absent from all current operational bleaching alert systems.

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Preregistration

Field	Details
Title	CORAL-CORE: Biomineralization Dynamics & Reef Hydro-Acoustic Buffering
Registration DOI	10.17605/OSF.IO/VU246
OSF Project	osf.io/8u9gt
Registration Type	OSF Preregistration
Date Registered	March 10, 2026
License	CC BY 4.0 International
Contributors	Samir Baladi

The preregistration fully specifies all five research questions (RQ1–RQ5), five statistical models, RHI weights, inference criteria, data exclusion rules, and stopping rules — all locked before prospective data collection begins.

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Data Availability

Resource	Link
🪸 Web Dashboard	coralcore.netlify.app
📦 PyPI Package	pypi.org/project/coralcore
📄 Zenodo Archive	doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18913829
🔬 OSF Preregistration	10.17605/OSF.IO/VU246
🗂️ OSF Project	osf.io/8u9gt
🐙 GitHub (Primary)	github.com/gitdeeper8/coralcore
🦊 GitLab (Mirror)	gitlab.com/gitdeeper8/coralcore
📖 Documentation	coralcore.readthedocs.io

All source code, validation datasets (47,832 daily observations), calibrated RHI weights, acoustic spectrograms (HDF5), SfM 3D meshes (OBJ), and field protocols are archived under CC BY 4.0 International.

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References

• Albright, R. et al. (2016). Reversal of ocean acidification enhances net coral reef calcification. Nature, 531, 362–365. DOI: 10.1038/nature17155
• Comeau, S. et al. (2019). Resistance to ocean acidification in coral reef taxa is not gained by acclimatization. Nature Climate Change, 9, 477–483. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0486-9
• Gordon, T.A.C. et al. (2019). Acoustic enrichment can enhance fish community development on degraded coral reef habitat. Nature Communications, 10, 5414. DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-13186-2
• Goreau, T.F. (1959). The physiology of skeleton formation in corals. Biological Bulletin, 116(1), 59–75. DOI: 10.2307/1538819
• Langdon, C. et al. (2000). Effect of calcium carbonate saturation state on the calcification rate of an experimental coral reef. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 14(2), 639–654. DOI: 10.1029/1999GB001195
• Lowe, R.J. et al. (2005). Spectral wave dissipation over a barrier reef. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 110, C04001. DOI: 10.1029/2004JC002711
• Suggett, D.J. et al. (2017). Coral bleaching patterns are the outcome of two interacting biological traits. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 32(7), 503–506. DOI: 10.1016/j.tree.2017.04.003
• Vermeij, M.J.A. et al. (2010). Coral larvae move toward reef sounds. PLOS ONE, 5(5), e10660. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0010660

Full reference list (18 primary sources): docs/whitepaper/CORAL-CORE_RESEARCH_PAPER.pdf

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Author

🪸

Samir Baladi Principal Investigator · Marine Biophysics & Reef Engineering Division Independent interdisciplinary researcher affiliated with the Ronin Institute for Independent Scholarship and the Rite of Renaissance research programme. Samir develops open-source physics-computational frameworks that bridge field-deployable instrumentation and rigorous quantitative modeling across extreme and understudied natural environments. CORAL-CORE is the marine physics pillar of an ongoing eleven-framework programme. Related preregistered frameworks include HADEXION (hadal zone dynamics), OPTIC-LENS (atmospheric optics), MAGION (magnetospheric physics), METEORICA (extraterrestrial materials classification), and seven others — each following the same open-science pipeline: OSF preregistration → Zenodo archive → PyPI package → peer-reviewed whitepaper → interactive web dashboard. No conflicts of interest declared. No commercial funding. All outputs CC BY 4.0. 📧 Email gitdeeper@gmail.com 🆔 ORCID 0009-0003-8903-0029 🐙 GitHub github.com/gitdeeper8 🦊 GitLab gitlab.com/gitdeeper8 🏛️ Affiliation Ronin Institute for Independent Scholarship / Rite of Renaissance

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Citation

@software{baladi2026coralcore,
  author       = {Baladi, Samir},
  title        = {CORAL-CORE: Biomineralization Dynamics \&
                  Reef Hydro-Acoustic Buffering Framework},
  year         = {2026},
  version      = {1.0.0},
  publisher    = {Zenodo},
  doi          = {10.5281/zenodo.18913829},
  url          = {https://github.com/gitdeeper8/coralcore},
  license      = {CC BY 4.0}
}

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