cross-signal-data

The labeled Polymarket crash-recovery dataset behind a 79.8% win-rate live trading bot.

308 closed trades. Real Polymarket markets. Real entry triggers. Real outcomes. Public for anyone who wants to build their own mean-reversion bot, replicate our results, or prove us wrong.

What's in here

A single CSV (data/crashes_v1.csv) with one row per closed trade on Polymarket where the crash-recovery bot entered. Each row has:

• The market (public Polymarket market_id and question text)
• The signal (pre_crash_high, entry_price, drop_pct)
• The outcome (exit_price, exit_reason, pnl_usd, is_profitable)
• Time features (entry_hour_utc, entry_dow, hold_hours)

Stat	Value
Total trades	308
Profitable	247 (80.2%)
Date range	March 2026 – April 2026
Median hold	~3 hours
Avg drop_pct at entry	~22%
Avg recovered_to_pct_of_high	~85%

Exit reason	Count
RECOVERY (price came back)	235
TIMEOUT_48H (held 48h, exited)	62
TIMEOUT (early TIMEOUT exit)	11

Why this exists

Most prediction-market datasets are either:

• Synthetic (generated for academic papers, no real money behind them), or
• Aggregate (volume, liquidity at hourly resolution — useless for tactical signals)

This is neither. It's the actual labeled examples of a single specific signal — Polymarket markets that crashed N% from a recent high — paired with the actual outcome of trading the recovery. If you want to study whether mean-reversion works on prediction markets, this is the data.

Install

pip install cross-signal-data

Quick use (Python)

from cross_signal_data import load

df = load()
print(df.shape)              # (308, 19)
print(df.columns.tolist())   # full list of fields

# Filter to RECOVERY-only trades
recovered = df[df["exit_reason"] == "RECOVERY"]

# What entry-price bucket has the best win rate?
buckets = df.groupby(df["entry_price"].round(2)).agg(
    n=("trade_id", "count"),
    win_rate=("is_profitable", "mean"),
)
print(buckets)

If you don't have pandas:

from cross_signal_data import load
rows = load(as_pandas=False)  # list of dicts
print(len(rows), rows[0])

Quick use (any language)

The file is plain CSV. Just download it:

curl -o crashes_v1.csv https://raw.githubusercontent.com/LuciferForge/cross-signal-data/main/data/crashes_v1.csv

Schema

See docs/schema.md for full column-by-column documentation.

Key columns:

• entry_price — the price-per-share when the bot entered (0–1)
• pre_crash_high — the recent local-window high
• drop_pct — (pre_crash_high − entry_price) / pre_crash_high × 100
• exit_reason — RECOVERY, TIMEOUT_48H, TIMEOUT, or STOP
• is_profitable — 1 if pnl_usd > 0 else 0
• recovered_to_pct_of_high — exit_price / pre_crash_high × 100

Methodology

See docs/methodology.md for:

• How the crash signal is defined
• Entry/exit rules
• Known biases (survivorship: only triggers that fired are recorded; a different threshold might surface different examples)
• What's NOT in the data (slippage cost — see pnl-truthteller for the slippage layer)

Reproducibility

The script that generated this dataset is in scripts/extract.py. Anyone with the source positions.json from the bot can rerun it:

python scripts/extract.py \
    --positions /path/to/positions.json \
    --output data/crashes_v1.csv

Baseline notebook

notebooks/baseline_model.py trains a logistic regression and random forest on the dataset to predict is_profitable.

Result: ~79.9% cross-validated accuracy with simple features — essentially matching the bot's 80.2% WR. Translation: most of the alpha is in the entry trigger itself (which already filters to high-WR setups), not in further feature engineering. If you want to beat this dataset, you almost certainly need features the bot doesn't currently log (orderbook depth, market category, time-to-resolution).

Top feature importances from the random forest:

Feature	Importance
drop_pct	0.254
shares	0.200
entry_price	0.174
pre_crash_high	0.171
entry_hour_utc	0.110
entry_dow	0.059

A clean, exploitable insight from the diurnal column: win rate at hours 16, 21, 22 UTC reaches ~100% (small samples though); hour 8 UTC dips to ~55%. Off-peak hours are punishing. Adjust your live-firing schedule accordingly.

pip install cross-signal-data[ml]
python notebooks/baseline_model.py

Versioning

Version	Date	Trades	Notes
v1	2026-04-28	308	Initial public release

Future versions will add more trades, more features (orderbook depth at entry, market category, time-to-resolution) and possibly per-market metadata. Pin to a specific version if reproducibility matters: load(version="v1").

License

Code: MIT. Use the loader, the extraction script, and the baseline notebook however you want.

Data: MIT. Public on-chain prediction market data, transformed into a labeled dataset. Cite if you use it in research.

Citation

@dataset{cross_signal_data_2026,
    title  = {cross-signal-data: Polymarket crash-recovery labeled dataset},
    author = {LuciferForge},
    year   = {2026},
    url    = {https://github.com/LuciferForge/cross-signal-data}
}

About the author

Built by LuciferForge, running a public-audited Polymarket crash bot (308 closed trades, 80.2% WR, all data here). Also runs:

• polymarket-mcp — MCP server for live Polymarket data
• pnl-truthteller — slippage audit tool
• polymarket-v2-migration — V1→V2 cookbook
• protodex.io — public MCP-server index