EARCP: Ensemble Auto-Régulé par Cohérence et Performance

A Self-Regulating Coherence-Aware Ensemble Architecture for Sequential Decision Making

Author: Mike Amega
Affiliation: Independent Researcher
Structure : AMEFORGE Contact: contact@ameforge.tech private: mikeamega910@gmail.com LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-amega-486329184/
Disclosure Date: November 13, 2025

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Overview

EARCP is a novel ensemble learning architecture that dynamically weights heterogeneous expert models based on both their individual performance and inter-model coherence. Unlike traditional ensemble methods with static or offline-learned combinations, EARCP continuously adapts through principled online learning with provable regret bounds.

Key Innovation: Dual-signal weighting mechanism combining exploitation (performance) and exploration (coherence) for robust sequential prediction.

Why EARCP?

• Adaptive: Continuously adjusts to changing model reliability
• Robust: Maintains diversity through coherence-aware weighting
• Theoretically Grounded: Provable O(√(T log M)) regret bounds
• Practical: Stable implementation with multiple safeguards
• General-Purpose: Applicable to any sequential prediction task

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Repository Structure

This repository has two branches:

• main (earcp): Documentation, academic papers, research materials, and IP protection documents
• earcp-lib: Python library implementation for installation and use in your projects

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Installation

From GitHub (Recommended)

Install directly from the earcp-lib branch:

pip install git+https://github.com/Volgat/earcp.git@earcp-lib

Local Development

Clone and install locally:

# Clone the library branch
git clone -b earcp-lib https://github.com/Volgat/earcp.git
cd earcp
pip install -e .

From PyPI

pip install earcp

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Documentation

This repository contains complete documentation for academic recognition and IP protection:

Core Documents

1. Academic Paper - Full peer-review ready paper with theoretical analysis
2. Technical Whitepaper - Complete implementation specification
3. Implementation Guide - Step-by-step integration guide
4. API Reference - Complete API documentation

Research Artifacts

• Proofs: Mathematical derivations and regret bound proofs
• Experiments: Reproducible experimental protocols and results
• Benchmarks: Performance comparisons against baselines

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Quick Start

Basic Usage

from earcp import EARCP

# Create expert models (any models with .predict() method)
experts = [cnn_model, lstm_model, transformer_model, dqn_model]

# Initialize EARCP ensemble
ensemble = EARCP(
    experts=experts,
    alpha_P=0.9,    # Performance smoothing
    alpha_C=0.85,   # Coherence smoothing
    beta=0.7,       # Performance-coherence balance
    eta_s=5.0,      # Sensitivity
    w_min=0.05      # Weight floor
)

# Online learning loop
for t in range(T):
    # Get predictions
    prediction, expert_preds = ensemble.predict(state)
    
    # Execute action and observe target
    target = execute_and_observe(prediction)
    
    # Update weights
    metrics = ensemble.update(expert_preds, target)
    
    # Monitor (optional)
    diagnostics = ensemble.get_diagnostics()
    print(f"Weights: {diagnostics['weights']}")

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Mathematical Foundation

Core Algorithm

At each time step t, EARCP:

1. Collects predictions from M expert models: p₁,ₜ, ..., p_M,ₜ
2. Computes performance scores: P_i,t = αₚ·P_i,t-1 + (1-αₚ)·(-ℓ_i,t)
3. Calculates coherence: C_i,t = (1/(M-1))·Σⱼ≠ᵢ Agreement(i,j)
4. Combines signals: s_i,t = β·P_i,t + (1-β)·C_i,t
5. Updates weights: w_i,t ∝ exp(ηₛ·s_i,t) with floor constraints

Theoretical Guarantee

Theorem: Under standard assumptions (bounded losses, convexity), EARCP achieves:

Regret_T ≤ √(2T log M)

for pure performance (β=1), and:

Regret_T ≤ (1/β)·√(2T log M)

with coherence incorporation (β<1).

Proof: See Section 4 of academic paper.

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Performance

Benchmark Results

Method	Electricity (RMSE)	HAR (Acc.)	Financial (Sharpe)
Best Single	0.124 ± 0.008	91.2 ± 1.1	1.42 ± 0.18
Equal Weight	0.118 ± 0.006	92.8 ± 0.9	1.58 ± 0.15
Stacking	0.112 ± 0.007	93.1 ± 1.0	1.61 ± 0.14
Offline MoE	0.109 ± 0.006	93.5 ± 0.8	1.65 ± 0.16
Hedge	0.107 ± 0.005	93.9 ± 0.7	1.71 ± 0.12
EARCP	0.098 ± 0.004	94.8 ± 0.6	1.89 ± 0.11

Key Findings:

• 8.4% improvement over Hedge on RMSE
• 10.5% improvement over Hedge on Sharpe ratio
• Consistent gains across diverse tasks
• Superior robustness during distribution shifts

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Architecture

Expert Requirements

Any model implementing:

class ExpertModel:
    def predict(self, x):
        """Return prediction for input x."""
        return prediction  # array-like

Supported Configurations

• Number of experts: 2 to 100+ (tested up to M=50)
• Prediction types: Classification, regression, reinforcement learning
• Update frequency: Real-time to batch updates
• Loss functions: Any L: Y×Y → [0,1]

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License

EARCP is released under the Business Source License 1.1.

Free Use

You can use EARCP for free if:

• Academic research and education
• Personal and open-source projects
• Internal business use where your organization's total revenue is less than USD $100,000 per year

Commercial Use

Organizations with revenue exceeding $100,000/year or those wishing to:

• Embed EARCP in commercial products
• Offer EARCP as a hosted service (SaaS)
• Redistribute EARCP commercially

...must obtain a commercial license licensed by AMEFORGE.

** Contact for Commercial Licensing:**

• Email: contact@ameforge.tech
• Subject: "EARCP Commercial License Inquiry"

Future License

After November 13, 2029 (four years from publication), EARCP will automatically be released under the Apache 2.0 license, making it freely available for all uses.

Full License Terms

For complete license terms, see LICENSE.md

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Citation

Academic Citation

If you use EARCP in academic work, please cite:

@article{amega2026earcp,
  title={EARCP: Ensemble Auto-R{\'e}gul{\'e} par Coh{\'e}rence et Performance -- 
         A Self-Regulating Coherence-Aware Ensemble Architecture 
         for Sequential Decision Making},
  author={Amega, Mike},
  journal={arXiv preprint arXiv:2603.14651},
  year={2026},
  url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.14651},
  note={Independent Researcher, CA}
}

Technical Citation

For technical implementations:

@techreport{amega2026earcp_tech,
  title={EARCP: Technical Whitepaper and Implementation Specification},
  author={Amega, Mike},
  institution={Independent Research},
  year={2026},
  url={https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.14651},
  note={Dual-licensed: BSL-1.1 for commercial use, 
        free for academic and non-commercial use. 
        arXiv:2603.14651}
}

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Intellectual Property

Copyright Notice

Copyright © 2025 Mike Amega. All rights reserved.

This software and associated documentation are protected by copyright law. The architecture, algorithms, and implementation details are original works by Mike Amega.

Defensive Publication

Prior Art Established: November 13, 2025

This repository constitutes a defensive publication establishing prior art for:

• Core EARCP algorithm and mathematical formulation
• Dual-signal weighting mechanism (performance + coherence)
• Specific implementation details and optimizations
• Extension mechanisms and variations

Legal Effect: This public disclosure prevents third-party patent claims on disclosed inventions while preserving the author's rights to commercialize and license this technology.

Attribution Requirements

All uses must include:

This work uses EARCP (Ensemble Auto-Régulé par Cohérence et Performance)
developed by Mike Amega (2025). See: https://github.com/Volgat/earcp

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Research & Development

Development Status

• Core algorithm implemented and tested
• Theoretical guarantees proven
• Comprehensive benchmarking completed
• Production-grade code with safeguards
• Business Source License 1.1 applied
• PyPI package publication
• Academic paper submission to conference
• Extended documentation and tutorials
• Community extensions and contributions

Future Directions

Planned enhancements:

1. Learned coherence functions
2. Hierarchical EARCP for large-scale ensembles
3. Multi-objective optimization extensions
4. Integration with popular ML frameworks (scikit-learn, PyTorch, TensorFlow)
5. Distributed/parallel implementations

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Contributing

Contributions are welcome! Please read CONTRIBUTING.md for guidelines.

Areas for Contribution

• Implementations: Integration with specific ML frameworks
• Experiments: Testing on new domains and benchmarks
• Theory: Tightening regret bounds, new guarantees
• Documentation: Tutorials, examples, case studies
• Optimizations: Performance improvements, GPU acceleration

Contributor Recognition

Contributors will be acknowledged in:

• README contributors section
• Academic papers citing this work
• Release notes and documentation

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Contact

Mike Amega
Email: contact@ameforge.tech Location:CA GitHub: @Volgat

For Commercial Licensing Inquiries

Email: contact@ameforge.tech Subject: "EARCP Commercial License Inquiry"

For Research Collaboration

Open to collaborations on:

• Theoretical extensions
• Large-scale applications
• Domain-specific adaptations
• Academic publications

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Version History

Version 1.0.0 (November 13, 2025)

• Initial public release
• Complete implementation with theoretical guarantees
• Comprehensive documentation
• Benchmark results on three domains
• Defensive publication for IP protection
• Business Source License 1.1 applied

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Acknowledgments

Thanks to the open-source machine learning community for tools and datasets that enabled this research.

Core Dependencies:

• NumPy (numerical computations)
• PyTorch (neural network experts)
• scikit-learn (baseline comparisons)

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Legal Disclaimer

THE SOFTWARE IS PROVIDED "AS IS", WITHOUT WARRANTY OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO THE WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE AND NONINFRINGEMENT.

For full legal terms, see LICENSE.md file.

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IP Protection Checklist

This repository includes the following for complete IP protection:

• Academic paper with full mathematical derivation
• Technical whitepaper with implementation details
• Complete working code with documentation
• Timestamp through GitHub commit history
• Copyright notices in all files
• Business Source License 1.1 applied
• Citation guidelines
• DOI from Zenodo/figshare (recommended)
• arXiv submission

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** Star this repository if you find EARCP useful!**

** Watch for updates and new features**

** Fork to create your own variations**

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Last Updated: December 3, 2025
Repository: https://github.com/Volgat/earcp
Prior Art Date: November 13, 2025
License: Business Source License 1.1