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Epistemic Integrity Framework - the scientific method applied to AI agent reasoning

Project description

EIF - Epistemic Integrity Framework
Apply the scientific method to every assumption your AI agent makes.

License: MIT Python 3.11+ MCP Compatible tests ComplyEdge runtime enforcement


The problem

AI agents compound errors. Each assumption that goes unchallenged becomes the foundation for the next one. A 90%-accurate agent running 10-step tasks produces correct output only 35% of the time - that's the compound error curve. That 0.9^10 curve is an upper bound: it assumes independent, non-recoverable per-step errors, whereas real pipelines have correlated and recoverable steps, so EIF's value is framed as reducing the error rate per load-bearing step rather than as the literal compound figure. In high-stakes domains (compliance, engineering decisions, financial advice), this translates to real cost.

Enterprise losses from AI hallucinations are estimated at $67.4B/year (AllAboutAI 2025, as synthesized in the PromptFluent State of AI Debt Report 2026) - and the dominant source is not hallucinated facts, but unchallenged assumptions that are never tested against evidence.


What EIF does

EIF is a Python library and MCP server that runs an 8-phase scientific-method pipeline on every load-bearing assumption in an agent's response:

DECLARE          → name every assumption: KNOWN / ASSUMED / GUESSED
FALSIFY          → collect independent evidence via P1 code, P2 tools, P3 web search
CAUSAL_GATE      → check Pearl causal level; flag confounders and disjunctive bias
CALIBRATE        → Bayesian posterior update (prior × likelihood → route)
CHALLENGE        → adversarial critic produces counter-evidence and competing hypothesis
UPDATE           → sequential Bayes update; EIG stopping rule
EXPLAIN          → hard-to-vary check (Deutsch): every detail must be functionally irreplaceable
RECORD           → provenance record with EU AI Act compliance mapping

Plus auxiliary gates that run before/after the core loop:

INPUT_GUARD      → detect adversarial or manipulative inputs before the pipeline runs
SYCOPHANCY_GATE  → detect position drift, unfaithful CoT, and face-preserving framing
HYPOTHESIS_AGENDA → rank claims by Expected Information Gain before FALSIFY
REPLICATE        → pre-registered replication protocol for cross-session reproducibility
PROGRAMME        → Lakatos health monitor: PROGRESSIVE / STABLE / DEGENERATIVE

At the end of each turn, EIF routes the agent's output:

  • ACT - posterior ≥ threshold, evidence supports, safe to proceed
  • REVISE - some assumptions unresolved, moderate confidence
  • HALT - evidence contradicts a HIGH-consequence claim; do not proceed

Corpus evidence

EIF was validated against 14 multi-agent conversation scenarios across 5 domains (clinical, engineering, compliance, investment, M&A).

Scope note: the 14-scenario corpus is constructed and illustrative - it demonstrates the mechanisms, not field results. The "cost saved" figures are modeled estimates (per-HALT incremental reversal cost with domain multipliers, detailed in validation/CORPUS_REPORT.md), not measured production savings. A separate field-validation track on real agent traffic is the basis for production false-positive measurement.

Scenario Domain Turns HALT REVISE ACT Cost saved
S8v31 ML Model Deployment (FDA SaMD) clinical 6 6 0 0 $3,000,000
S7v31 Code Review / API Security engineering 6 5 1 0 $780,000
S6v31 Investment Decision - Series A investment 6 5 1 0 $260,000
S10 Sycophancy Validation investment 6 5 1 0 $260,000
S11 Sycophancy Market Gap investment 9 4 2 0 $220,000
S20 Sycophancy Full-Signal compliance 6 4 0 2 $400,000
S18 Reasoning Theater compliance 6 2 1 3 $220,000
S19b Model Scaling Ablation (gpt-4o) investment 6 2 3 1 $130,000
S16 REVERSED CEP - Beta-carotene/CARET clinical 3 1 2 0 $700,000
S15 CAUSAL_GATE v4 - Phase 3 Protocol clinical 6 1 1 4 $600,000
S9v31 M&A Due Diligence manda 6 0 4 2 $200,000
S14 EXPLAIN Cold-Start Baseline engineering 6 0 0 0 $0
S17 Disjunctive Bias - clinical supplements clinical 6 0 4 2 $400,000
S19a Model Scaling Ablation (gpt-4o-mini) investment 6 0 5 1 $50,000
TOTAL 84 35 25 15 $7,220,000 (modeled)

P4 (circular LLM self-validation) rate: 0.0% across all 14 scenarios. Every piece of evidence came from an independent source - executable code, coordinator tool outputs, or live web search.

Full evidence: validation/CORPUS_REPORT.md. Per-scenario reports available on request via GitHub Discussions.


Quick start

pip install -e ".[mcp]"   # local dev (the MCP extra powers the examples below)
# or: uvx eif-engine      # once published to PyPI

Two-tool path (recommended for first session)

import asyncio
from eif import session as session_store
from eif.mcp_server.server import eif_extract_claims_from_decision, eif_verify

async def run():
    sess = await session_store.new_session()
    sid = sess.session_id

    # Step 1: Describe the agent's decision in plain English.
    # EIF extracts 2-4 load-bearing claims automatically (no JSON required).
    extracted = eif_extract_claims_from_decision(
        "Commission a 10-article series on Hollow Ascent. "
        "The game has 5,000+ IGDB hype followers and strong community demand."
    )

    # Step 2: Run the full pipeline - declare, falsify, calibrate, route.
    # If a claim is HALT-routed, halt_cards shows the blocked claim + evidence.
    result = await eif_verify(
        session_id=sid,
        decision="Commission content series based on IGDB metrics",
        claims=extracted["claims"],
    )

    print(f"Verdict: {result['verdict']}")  # "HALT" or "PASS"
    for card in result["halt_cards"]:
        print(card)

asyncio.run(run())

Register a P0 host tool (highest-accuracy evidence tier)

When your agent has access to an authoritative data source (IGDB, your database, an internal API), register it as a P0 host tool. EIF calls it directly - no web search, no guessing.

from eif.falsify.evidence_collector import HostTool, HostToolRegistry

# One function: takes a query string, returns the raw data as a string.
def igdb_lookup(query: str) -> str:
    import requests
    resp = requests.get("https://api.igdb.com/v4/games", ...)  # your IGDB call
    return str(resp.json())

registry = HostToolRegistry([
    HostTool(
        name="igdb_api",
        description="IGDB game database - hype count, ratings, community size",
        capability_keywords=["igdb", "hype", "game", "demand", "followers"],
        fn=igdb_lookup,
        data_scope="PUBLIC",
    )
])

# Pass the registry to eif_verify via host_tool_outputs (MCP path)
# or directly to collect_evidence() in the Python integration layer.

P0 is the highest-priority evidence tier. Without a registered tool, EIF falls back to web search (P3), which can return false-positive SUPPORTS for specific numeric metrics. For production use, register the tool.

See examples/quickstart.py for a complete end-to-end example (a different scenario, an infrastructure-migration decision, walking DECLARE through EXPLAIN in one script).


MCP server (Cursor / Claude Desktop integration)

Option A - hosted endpoint (private alpha, zero install):

Request a key by opening a Discussion, then add the config for your client.

Cursor (~/.cursor/mcp.json) and Claude Desktop (~/Library/Application Support/Claude/claude_desktop_config.json):

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "eif": {
      "url": "https://eif.leocelis.com/sse",
      "headers": { "Authorization": "Bearer YOUR_KEY_HERE" }
    }
  }
}

VS Code / GitHub Copilot (.vscode/mcp.json): use "servers" (not "mcpServers") and add "type": "http" to the entry.

The hosted endpoint is in private alpha. Everything below runs fully on your own machine with no key.

Option B - local venv (works today, fully self-hosted):

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "eif": {
      "command": "/path/to/venv/bin/python",
      "args": ["-m", "eif.mcp_server.server"]
    }
  }
}

Option C - uvx (once eif-engine is published to PyPI):

{
  "mcpServers": {
    "eif": {
      "command": "uvx",
      "args": ["eif-engine"]
    }
  }
}

EIF exposes 24 tools your agent can call:

Core pipeline (8 tools):

Tool Phase What it does
eif_get_context - Load EIF principles into agent context
eif_declare DECLARE Register and classify every assumption
eif_falsify FALSIFY Collect independent evidence; run SPRT
eif_causal_gate CAUSAL_GATE Check Pearl causal level; flag confounders
eif_calibrate CALIBRATE Bayesian posterior; compute routing
eif_challenge CHALLENGE Adversarial critic with counter-evidence
eif_update UPDATE Sequential posterior update; EIG stopping
eif_explain EXPLAIN Hard-to-vary check on the mechanism

Gates and monitors (5 tools):

Tool What it does
eif_input_guard Detect adversarial or manipulative inputs
eif_sycophancy_gate Detect position drift, unfaithful CoT, face-preserving framing
eif_programme_health Lakatos health monitor for the session
eif_record Write provenance record; EU AI Act compliance mapping
eif_replicate Pre-registered replication protocol

Calibration and agenda (4 tools):

Tool What it does
eif_record_outcome Log a session's labeled outcome (true/false) for cross-session ECE calibration
eif_calibration_report Return ECE state, empirical prior, and sessions-to-grounded count
eif_catch_rate_report Empirical HALT catch-rate across all sessions for a domain
eif_hypothesis_agenda Rank outstanding hypotheses by Expected Information Gain before FALSIFY

Utilities (7 tools):

Tool What it does
eif_verify One-call full pipeline: declare → falsify → calibrate → route
eif_extract_claims_from_decision Extract structured claims from free-form agent text
eif_compliance_report Generate EU AI Act compliance report for a session
eif_provenance Retrieve the full provenance chain for a session
eif_get_session Inspect current session state
eif_demo Zero-setup HALT example (Manor Lords / IGDB)
eif_check_rules_installed Verify the EIF agent-rules block (see below) is installed in your instruction files

Recommended agent loop (in your system prompt or MCP server instructions):

1. eif_get_context              - once per session
2. eif_input_guard              - before processing any user input
3. eif_declare                  - after every response with load-bearing claims
4. eif_falsify                  - for ASSUMED/GUESSED HIGH-consequence claims
5. eif_causal_gate              - if any claim asserts X causes Y
6. eif_calibrate                - route: ACT / REVISE / HALT
7. eif_challenge + eif_update   - when routing is REVISE or HALT
8. eif_sycophancy_gate          - if the agent changed position under pressure
9. eif_explain                  - before sharing final recommendation
10. eif_record                  - write the provenance record

Paste the block below into an agent instruction file (.cursorrules, CLAUDE.md, AGENTS.md, or .cursor/rules/eif.mdc) so eif_check_rules_installed can confirm it is present and your agent picks up the loop automatically:

# <BEGIN-EIF v1.0>
# EIF - verify before acting on load-bearing claims.
# 1. eif_get_context once per session.
# 2. Before acting on a decision with load-bearing factual/causal claims, call
#    eif_verify(decision, claims). Use eif_extract_claims_from_decision if you
#    don't already have structured claims.
# 3. Pass data you already fetched (DB rows, API results, tool output) as
#    host_tool_outputs - that is P0 evidence, the highest tier.
# 4. HALT verdict: do not act; surface halt_cards to the user.
#    REVISE: gather more evidence before acting. ACT: proceed.
# Do not call eif_verify on every reply - reserve it for consequential decisions.
# <END-EIF v1.0>

Evidence collection tiers

EIF's FALSIFY phase collects evidence from independent sources, prioritised:

Tier Trigger Source
P0 HOST_TOOL Host agent has a registered tool for this data source Calls the authoritative data API directly (e.g. IGDB, EHR, internal DB)
P1 CODE_EXECUTION Numerical/metric claims Executes Python against public benchmark data
P2 TOOL_OUTPUT Agent tool calls available Parses coordinator web search / API results
P3 WEB_SEARCH Regulatory / temporal claims Live web search via DDGS native or OpenAI responses API
P4 PARAMETRIC All else (capped) LLM parametric probe - fallback only

P0 is the highest-priority tier and is the mechanism used in the Manor Lords / IGDB demo. P4 is never used for company-specific claims. In the validation corpus, P4 rate was 0.0% across all 14 scenarios.


Architecture

eif/
├── schemas.py                  Pydantic v2 models (dependency root)
├── session.py                  Async in-memory session store
├── declare/
│   ├── registry.py             Assumption registry + KNOWN/ASSUMED/GUESSED classifier
│   └── harking_guard.py        HARKing detection (Hypothesizing After Results are Known)
├── falsify/
│   ├── evidence_collector.py   Five-tier evidence collection (P0–P4)
│   ├── native_tools.py         Self-sufficient P1+P3 tools (DDGS + code sandbox)
│   ├── sprt.py                 Sequential Probability Ratio Test
│   ├── condition.py            Falsification condition parser
│   ├── hard_to_vary.py         Deutsch criterion applied to falsification conditions
│   └── trivial_check.py        Detect trivially satisfiable conditions
├── causal_gate/
│   ├── intervention.py         Pearl causal levels (L1/L2/L3) + intervention check
│   ├── confound.py             Confounder and disjunctive bias detection
│   ├── direction.py            Temporal direction heuristic
│   ├── evidence_probe.py       Causal Evidence Probe (CEP) - v4
│   └── verdict.py              CausalVerdict → posterior adjustment
├── calibrate/
│   ├── bayesian.py             Bayesian posterior: P(H|E) = P(E|H)×P(H) / P(E)
│   ├── ece.py                  Expected Calibration Error
│   ├── conformal.py            Conformal prediction coverage
│   └── prior_strategy.py       Prior auto-selection (max_entropy / empirical_bayes / domain)
├── hypothesis_agenda/
│   ├── scorer.py               EIG × consequence × boundary × uncertainty priority score
│   └── agenda.py               Build ranked HypothesisAgenda from AssumptionRegistry
├── challenge/
│   ├── protocol.py             Adversarial critic protocol builder
│   ├── multi_critic.py         Multi-critic with actual LLM calls + independence check
│   └── diversity.py            Critic independence classifier
├── update/
│   ├── posterior.py            Sequential Bayesian posterior update
│   ├── eig.py                  Expected Information Gain (KL divergence)
│   └── stopping.py             EIG / SPRT / cost stopping rules
├── explain/
│   ├── hard_to_vary.py         Deutsch hard-to-vary check + domain-specificity anchor gate
│   ├── artifact.py             ExplanationArtifact builder
│   └── reach.py                LOCAL vs BROADER scope classifier
├── sycophancy/
│   ├── detector.py             Orchestrates M1–M4 sycophancy detectors
│   ├── drift.py                M2: Position drift detector
│   ├── faithfulness.py         M3: Unfaithful CoT detector
│   ├── framing.py              M1/M4: Agreement-before-evidence + face-preserving framing
│   └── cost_model.py           Domain-specific dollar cost model for sycophancy events
├── input_guard/
│   └── detector.py             Adversarial input detection (D1–D5)
├── record/
│   ├── provenance.py           Build ProvenanceRecord from session state
│   ├── compliance.py           Map ProvenanceRecord → EU AI Act articles
│   └── chain.py                Append record to session provenance chain
├── replicate/
│   ├── protocol.py             Pre-registered replication protocol generator
│   └── divergence.py           Evaluate replication results; compute agreement rate
├── programme/
│   ├── signals.py              Compute ProgrammeSignals from provenance chain
│   ├── monitor.py              PROGRESSIVE / STABLE / DEGENERATIVE classifier
│   └── status.py               Human-readable status + recommendation
├── cost_model/
│   ├── cost_ledger.py          Cumulative modeled-savings ledger (~/.eif/)
│   └── catch_rate_empirical.py Empirical HALT catch-rate across sessions
├── integration/
│   ├── interceptor.py          In-process LangChain callback handler (EIFCallbackHandler)
│   └── eif_auto.py             Generic guard decorator/context manager (eif_guard)
├── sdk/
│   ├── interceptor.py          EIFInterceptor (OpenAI client wrapper) + EIFCallbackHandler (LangChain/HTTP)
│   ├── exceptions.py           EIFHaltError + HaltRecord - raised when verdict = HALT
│   └── __init__.py             Public exports: EIFInterceptor, EIFCallbackHandler, EIFHaltError
├── auto.py                     Zero-config import hook (import eif.auto → intercepts all OpenAI + Anthropic)
├── reporting/
│   └── pdf_renderer.py         PDF compliance report via fpdf2
└── mcp_server/
    ├── server.py               FastMCP server - 24 tools + 5 resources (stdio)
    ├── http_server.py          HTTP/SSE transport (self-hosted)
    ├── auth.py                 Optional API key authentication (single shared key)
    └── resources.py            MCP resources (context, corpus, schema, compliance)

research/
├── foundations/                Scientific method history, philosophy, and statistics (7 files)
├── ai_agents/                  AI agent research - hypothesis generation, causal reasoning,
│                               calibration, multi-agent review, provenance (6 files)
└── sycophancy_bias_research.md Canonical sycophancy literature review

Research foundation

EIF integrates findings from:

Paper Contribution
Popper (1959) Logic of Scientific Discovery Falsifiability as the demarcation criterion
Deutsch (2011) Beginning of Infinity Hard-to-vary explanations as quality signal
Pearl (2009) Causality Causal ladder L1/L2/L3 for intervention claims
Wald (1945) SPRT Sequential hypothesis testing for streaming evidence
Sharma et al. (2023) arXiv:2310.13548 Sycophancy in LLMs - larger models are more sycophantic
Truth Decay arXiv:2503.11656 (2025) Multi-turn position erosion: ~12–18% confidence drop per pushback turn
ELEPHANT arXiv:2505.13995 (2025) Five face-preserving behaviours in LLM responses
ERM arXiv:2602.11675 (2025) LLMs substitute P(Y|X) for P(Y|do(X)) - causal rung collapse
IFScale (2025) 68% accuracy at high constraint density - segmented implementation required
FActScore (Min et al., 2023) Atomic claim decomposition and verification

Full research citations: docs/research_foundation.md

Primary-source literature reviews (15 documents, ~3,800 lines): research/


Production Integration

Three surfaces for intercepting LLM responses in your code - all run locally (your responses never leave your machine).

A) EIFInterceptor - wrap an existing OpenAI client

from openai import OpenAI
from eif.sdk import EIFInterceptor, EIFHaltError

client = OpenAI()
eif = EIFInterceptor(api_key="eif-...", client=client)

try:
    response = eif.chat.completions.create(
        model="gpt-4o",
        messages=[{"role": "user", "content": "Evaluate this plan: ..."}],
    )
    print(response.choices[0].message.content)
except EIFHaltError as e:
    print("HALT:", e.halt_record)
    # Do not act on this response - EIF found a claim without independent evidence.

Install (from a source checkout until the PyPI release): pip install -e ".[sdk]"

Note: on any EIF server error the SDK fails open (the response passes through unverified) so your agent never blocks on EIF availability. Treat EIFHaltError as the only enforcement signal.

B) eif.auto - zero-config import hook

import eif.auto  # add once at your agent's entry point

# All subsequent OpenAI and Anthropic calls are intercepted automatically.
# EIFHaltError is raised if a HALT verdict is reached.

Configure via environment:

export EIF_API_KEY="eif-..."
export EIF_SERVER_URL="http://localhost:8080"   # default
export EIF_HALT_MODE="raise"                    # raise | log | callback

Start the HTTP server: eif-mcp-http-server

C) EIFCallbackHandler - LangChain / LangGraph

from langchain.agents import AgentExecutor
from eif.sdk import EIFCallbackHandler, EIFHaltError

handler = EIFCallbackHandler(api_key="eif-...")
agent = AgentExecutor(agent=agent, tools=tools, callbacks=[handler])

try:
    result = agent.invoke({"input": task})
except EIFHaltError as e:
    print("HALT:", e.halt_record)

For in-process LangChain integration (no HTTP server required), use the original integration layer:

from eif.integration import EIFInterceptor, EIFHaltError
interceptor = EIFInterceptor(session_id="my-session")
chain = my_chain.with_config(callbacks=[interceptor])

Design principles

  1. No LLM calls in the engine - all computation is deterministic local math; LLM calls happen only in evidence collection (P3/P4) and claim extraction (integration layer)
  2. Pydantic v2 throughout - every input and output is a typed, validated model
  3. H₀ = claim-is-TRUE - Popper orientation: REJECT means the claim fails
  4. EIG stopping rule - stop gathering evidence when KL(posterior ∥ prior) < 0.01 nats
  5. IMP4 direction law - CONTRADICTS evidence must use low P(E|H), not the same likelihood as SUPPORTS
  6. P4 = 0% target - parametric self-validation is never used for company-specific or causal claims

Validation corpus

Full corpus: validation/

File Description
CORPUS_REPORT.md Aggregated results across 14 scenarios, 84 agent turns
EIF_INVESTMENT_V31_EVIDENCE.md Sample: Investment decision - Series A, 6 turns
aggregate_corpus.py Aggregator script - regenerates CORPUS_REPORT.md

Additional per-scenario evidence reports (S6v31–S20) available on request via GitHub Discussions.


Development

git clone https://github.com/leocelis/eif && cd eif
python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -e ".[dev,mcp]"
pytest -q

See CONTRIBUTING.md for the repo layout, code style, and PR checklist. CI runs the test suite (Python 3.11 and 3.12) plus a TrustLint EU AI Act screen over the intent artifacts (./scripts/compliance/check.sh). See docs/integrations/COMPLYEDGE.md for the full setup and the live trust surface.


Community


Legal

Document Covers
LICENSE MIT license for the code
LEGAL.md What EIF is and is not, performance-claim scope, limitations, deployer obligations
TERMS_OF_SERVICE.md Use of the repository, docs, and project site
PRIVACY_POLICY.md No telemetry; categorical no-collection when self-hosted; what the optional hosted alpha does with your claim text
DATA_PROCESSING_AGREEMENT.md Template (not in force) for internal enterprise deployments
SECURITY.md Vulnerability reporting
NOTICE Third-party attributions

Performance and market figures in this README are modeled or third-party estimates, not measured production results: see LEGAL.md.


License

MIT - see LICENSE. Maintained by Leo Celis.

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