el-nino-amplification-utac

GenesisAeon Package 118 — real coral-paleorecord evidence that El Nino events over the last 40 years are measurably stronger than the pre-industrial millennium baseline, plus a real complication from the same research group's deeper paleorecord. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md for why.

Where this package came from

Johann shared a scinexx.de article on Cole et al. (2026, Science). A broad DeepResearch pass then confirmed this topic was genuinely uncovered in this ecosystem's climate/ecology series (checked directly against PACKAGE_REGISTRY.md) and surfaced two companion candidates (marine heatwaves, Antarctic ice shelf mass loss) built alongside this one. Every citation here was independently verified via direct WebFetch against publisher/press-release pages before being written into code.

What's real here

• Cole et al. (2026, Science) — El Nino events measured over the last 40 years are ~40% stronger than the pre-industrial (pre-~1850) millennium baseline, exceeding the full range of variability in that 1000-year paleorecord. Method: 13 Galapagos coral cores (living + subfossil), Sr/Ca ratio and oxygen-isotope proxies, 1mm sampling resolution, minimum 20-year span per core.
• Tripp et al. (2026, GRL) — the same method extended to ~4000 years before present: real, substantial ENSO variability existed then too (comparable in magnitude to 1959-1979 CE), but skewed toward stronger La Nina (cold) events — the opposite polarity of today's El Nino-skewed record.

Deliberately not one-sided

does_skew_direction_match_modern() returns False — the 4000-BP record's dominant ENSO polarity does not match today's. The paleorecord does not tell a simple "monotonically getting stronger" story: it shows the modern 40-year window as anomalous against the full millennium range, with a real, differently-shaped precedent further back.

amplification_is_a_comparison_not_a_forecast() always returns True — this package documents a measured historical comparison, not a prediction about any specific future El Nino event.

Installation

pip install el-nino-amplification-utac

Quick start

from el_nino_amplification_utac import (
    modern_amplification_pct,
    is_modern_enso_unprecedented_in_millennium,
    does_skew_direction_match_modern,
)

modern_amplification_pct()  # 40.0
is_modern_enso_unprecedented_in_millennium(40.0)  # True
does_skew_direction_match_modern()  # False -- the honesty check

License

Code: MIT. Documentation/data notes: see DISCLAIMER.md.

Citation

See CITATION.cff.