eqpredict — Research-grade global earthquake probabilistic nowcasting

Important scientific caveat
As of 2025-10-13, no agency or research group can predict the exact time, place, and magnitude of a future large earthquake. This repository provides an exploratory, research-grade pipeline for probabilistic nowcasting/forecasting of earthquake occurrence rates using historical seismicity plus optional solar and planetary features. Do not use outputs for public alerts, emergency decisions, or safety-critical applications. See the sources linked below and DISCLAIMER.md.

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What this project does

• Downloads global historical earthquakes (USGS ComCat by default), with optional ISC‐GEM and Global CMT catalogs for robustness.
• Builds a global spatio‑temporal grid (default 1° × 1°, 7‑day time steps) and constructs features:
  • classical seismicity features (recent counts, Gutenberg–Richter summaries),
  • simple ETAS-like cluster intensity proxy,
  • optional tectonic context (distance to plate boundaries, active faults; requires GeoPandas),
  • solar/space‑weather features (sunspot number, F10.7 radio flux),
  • Sun–Moon–and planets geometry features using NASA JPL ephemerides via skyfield (lunar phase, Earth–Moon/Sun distances, crude "alignment index").
• Trains baseline probabilistic models (logistic regression, gradient boosting) to forecast the probability that ≥1 event with M ≥ M0 occurs in the next Δt in each grid cell.
• Evaluates with CSEP‑style metrics (log‑likelihood, Brier score, information gain vs. uniform) and rare‑event metrics (ROC‑AUC, PR‑AUC).

This is intended for hypothesis testing (e.g., "do solar or planetary features add information beyond recent seismicity?") — not for operational prediction.

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Installation

Prerequisites

• Python 3.9+ (tested on 3.11)
• pip or conda for package management

Option 1: pip (virtualenv)

# Clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/yourusername/eqpredict.git
cd eqpredict

# Create virtual environment
python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate  # On Windows: .venv\Scripts\activate

# Install in development mode (recommended)
pip install -e .

# For tests and tooling
pip install -e .[dev]

# Optional tectonics/geospatial features
pip install -e .[tectonics]
# or: pip install -r requirements-tectonics.txt

Option 2: Conda (recommended for GeoPandas)

GeoPandas can be tricky to install with pip on some systems. Conda handles the spatial dependencies more reliably:

# Create conda environment
conda create -n eqpredict -c conda-forge python=3.11 \
    geopandas shapely pyproj scikit-learn numpy pandas scipy \
    requests skyfield tqdm matplotlib pytest

conda activate eqpredict

# Clone and install
git clone https://github.com/yourusername/eqpredict.git
cd eqpredict
pip install -e .

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Quickstart

# 1) Activate your environment
source .venv/bin/activate  # or: conda activate eqpredict

# 2) Download data (defaults: 2010..2024, global, M>=5.0)
# Note: date-only --end is treated as inclusive.
python scripts/download_usgs.py --start 2010-01-01 --end 2024-12-31 --minmag 5.0

# Optional: sunspots + daily F10.7
python scripts/download_solar.py --start 2009-01-01 --end 2025-12-31

# 3) Build grid dataset (1° grid, 7-day steps, target=M>=5.0)
python scripts/build_dataset.py --grid_deg 1.0 --timestep_days 7 --minmag 5.0

# 4) Train a model
python scripts/train.py --model gradient_boosting --n_estimators 300

# 5) Evaluate (CSEP-like and rare-event metrics)
python scripts/evaluate.py

# 6) Produce a probabilistic forecast map for the next week (illustrative)
python scripts/predict.py

Outputs are stored under artifacts/ (trained models, metrics, figures, and per‑cell probability grids as CSV).

Planetary features prefer the packaged src/eqpredict/data/de440s.bsp file (if present). If it is missing, Skyfield will download the ephemeris to ~/.skyfield.

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Project Structure

eqpredict/
├── README.md              # This file
├── DISCLAIMER.md          # Scientific/ethical disclaimers
├── DATA_SOURCES.md        # Data sources, licenses, APIs
├── LICENSE                # GNU AGPL-3.0-or-later
├── NOTICE                 # Attribution notice for derivatives
├── requirements.txt       # Python dependencies
├── pytest.ini             # pytest configuration
│
├── src/eqpredict/         # Main package
│   ├── __init__.py
│   ├── data/              # Data fetching modules
│   │   ├── usgs.py        # USGS earthquake catalog
│   │   ├── solar.py       # Solar/space weather data
│   │   └── planetary.py   # Planetary geometry features
│   ├── features/          # Feature engineering
│   │   └── build.py       # Grid creation, ETAS, dataset building
│   ├── models/            # ML models
│   │   ├── ml.py          # Gradient boosting, logistic regression
│   │   └── baselines.py   # Uniform rate baseline
│   ├── evaluation/        # Evaluation metrics
│   │   └── csep.py        # CSEP-style information gain
│   └── utils/             # Utilities
│       ├── io.py          # File I/O
│       └── logger.py      # Structured logging
│
├── scripts/               # CLI entry points
│   ├── download_usgs.py   # Download earthquake data
│   ├── download_solar.py  # Download solar data
│   ├── build_dataset.py   # Build training dataset
│   ├── train.py           # Train models
│   ├── evaluate.py        # Evaluate model performance
│   └── predict.py         # Generate forecasts
│
├── tests/                 # Unit tests
│   ├── test_features.py
│   ├── test_models.py
│   ├── test_evaluation.py
│   └── test_utils.py
│
└── artifacts/             # Created on first run
    ├── data/              # Downloaded and processed data
    ├── models/            # Trained models (.joblib)
    ├── metrics/           # Evaluation metrics (.json)
    └── figures/           # Generated plots

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Running Tests

# Install test dependencies
pip install -e .[dev]

# Run all tests
pytest tests/ -v

# Run specific test file
pytest tests/test_features.py -v

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Data Sources

See DATA_SOURCES.md for complete information. Key sources:

• USGS Earthquake Catalog (ComCat, FDSN event service) — global historical earthquake parameters
• ISC‑GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (optionally merged)
• Global CMT (moment tensors for M≥~5 since 1976; optional)
• Plate boundaries (PB2002) and GEM Global Active Faults (optional tectonic context)
• Solar & geomagnetic: SILSO daily sunspot number; NOAA SWPC F10.7; GFZ/NOAA Kp index
• Planetary geometry: NASA JPL DE ephemerides via skyfield

⚠️ Licenses vary by dataset (e.g., ISC‑GEM is CC‑BY‑SA, GFZ Kp is CC‑BY‑4.0). Review DATA_SOURCES.md and each dataset's terms before redistribution.

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Contributing

Contributions are welcome! Here's how to get started:

Development Setup

# Fork and clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/yourusername/eqpredict.git
cd eqpredict

# Create development environment
python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
pip install -e .[dev]

# Install development dependencies
pip install pytest pytest-cov black isort mypy

Code Style

• Format code with black and isort
• Add type hints to all functions
• Write docstrings for public functions
• Keep line length under 100 characters

Submitting Changes

1. Create a feature branch: git checkout -b feature/your-feature
2. Make your changes with clear commit messages
3. Run tests: pytest tests/ -v
4. Push and open a pull request

Reporting Issues

Please include:

• Python version and OS
• Steps to reproduce
• Expected vs actual behavior
• Error messages/tracebacks

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Security note on model loading

The CLI scripts scripts/evaluate.py and scripts/predict.py load models via joblib, which uses Python pickle under the hood. Only load models you created yourself or otherwise fully trust.

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Scientific/Ethical Notes

• The USGS states plainly that earthquakes cannot be predicted; only probabilities can be estimated over windows of time and space. This project therefore focuses on probabilistic outputs and CSEP‑style evaluation.
• Evidence for lunar/solar tidal triggering exists in specific contexts, but effects are small and not reliably predictive. Evidence for planetary alignments beyond Sun/Moon is weak or disputed. Treat those features as exploratory; expect them to contribute little beyond recent seismicity.
• Always defer to official sources (USGS, EMSC, JMA, GFZ) for situational awareness, and never use these outputs for safety decisions.

See DISCLAIMER.md for more detail and citations.

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Reproducibility

• Deterministic seeds are used where applicable
• All preprocessing logic lives under src/eqpredict/ and is covered by unit tests
• The pipeline uses only public endpoints and avoids fragile scrapers

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License

GNU AGPL-3.0-or-later. See LICENSE for the full license text and NOTICE for the project attribution notice that derivatives must preserve.

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Changelog

2026-01-02

• Added comprehensive unit tests (44 tests)
• Implemented structured logging system
• Added input validation to all CLI scripts
• Vectorized ETAS intensity calculation for performance
• Added memory-efficient chunked dataset building
• Added retry logic with exponential backoff to solar fetchers
• Added planetary feature caching
• Added comprehensive type hints
• Added model validation for secure loading
• Improved documentation

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Citations (selected)

• Ogata, Y. "Space–time ETAS models…" (see DATA_SOURCES.md for links)
• CSEP testing framework (pyCSEP)
• USGS FAQs on earthquake prediction; SILSO; NOAA SWPC; GFZ Kp; JPL DE ephemerides / Skyfield

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