falsification-ledger

A hash-chained, append-only ledger for research claims: pre-register the hypothesis and the evidence that would kill it before the study runs, then adjudicate honestly and measure your hit rate against a random baseline. Python 3.11+, one dependency (jsonschema), Windows / Linux / macOS.

Status: v0.1 鈥?alpha. The ledger semantics are distilled from a production research pipeline, but this standalone package is new: expect the CLI and schemas to shift before v1.0.

Why this exists

Quantitative research has a self-deception problem: you test 500 factor ideas, remember the 3 that worked, and forget the 497 that died. By the time you "validate" the lucky survivors, the evidence is already contaminated by what you saw. Every backtest-hygiene tool on the market attacks the statistics of this problem (deflated Sharpe, PBO, multiple-testing corrections). falsification-ledger attacks the process: it makes you write down, before seeing evidence:

• what you expect (support / against / uncertain), and
• what evidence would kill your claim (the falsification contract).

Then it keeps the receipts. Every event lands in an append-only JSONL hash chain 鈥?any edit after the fact is detected by fl verify 鈥?and the report answers the only question that matters: do your pre-registered beliefs actually hit, or is your hit rate indistinguishable from a random baseline? (Wilson 95% CI vs the most common actual verdict.)

Philosophy

Research is a promise; the ledger keeps it.

• Falsifiability is the default, not the exception. Popper's criterion 鈥?a claim is scientific only if something could count against it 鈥?is usually invoked as a lecture. Here it is a required JSON field (falsification_contract on preregister).
• Pre-analysis plans have known costs and benefits. Olken (2015), "Promises and Perils of Pre-Analysis Plans" (JEP 29(3)) documents both; this tool implements the benefits (frozen expectations, audit trail) while keeping the costs explicit (uncertain verdicts and exploratory source types are first-class, so you can register what you genuinely do not know).
• Moderation beats total freezing. Banerjee & Duflo, "In Praise of Moderation" argue for layered pre-registration; source_type (paper / business / cross_domain / pipeline / other) exists so confirmatory and exploratory claims are never mixed in the same bucket.
• Finance can become scientific. L贸pez de Prado (2023), Causal Factor Investing asks whether factor investing can become a science; this ledger is one concrete answer 鈥?evidence with a chain of custody, adjudicated against a pre-registered expectation.
• Automated research needs machine-checkable evidence. EviBound (arXiv:2511.05524) and ECLIPSE v2.0 argue that agentic research pipelines must eliminate false claims through verifiable evidence; fl submit validates falsification reports against a JSON Schema and computes content IDs, so gates can trust the evidence without trusting the messenger.

Quick start

# install from PyPI (once published)
pip install falsification-ledger

# or run without installing anything:
#   PYTHONPATH=src python -m falsification_ledger --help

# try the full loop on a scratch ledger (creates files under a temp dir)
python examples/demo.py

The manual loop:

fl init --state-dir ~/.research-ledger

# 1. BEFORE running the study: register what you expect,
#    and what evidence would kill the claim.
fl preregister --state-dir ~/.research-ledger \
  --case-id MOMENTUM-OOS-2026Q3 \
  --verdict support \
  --reason "momentum rank IC stays positive OOS" \
  --source-type paper \
  --contract kill-criteria.json

# 2. When an independent check produces evidence, submit it:
fl submit --report falsification-report.json
# -> {"content_id": "sha256:...", "evidence_status": "valid", ...}

# 3. AFTER the study: adjudicate honestly.
fl adjudicate --state-dir ~/.research-ledger \
  --case-id MOMENTUM-OOS-2026Q3 --verdict support

# 4. Measure whether you are better than a coin flip.
fl report --state-dir ~/.research-ledger --min-cases 20

# 5. Any time: prove nobody rewrote history.
fl verify --state-dir ~/.research-ledger

Commands

Global flag: --state-dir on every stateful command (default: none 鈥?the ledger path is always explicit, so a git add . can never sweep it into version control).

Ledger format

The ledger is a JSONL file at <state-dir>/ledger.jsonl. Every line is one event:

{"schema_version": "falsification_ledger.prediction_event.v1",
 "event": "register", "record_id": "...", "case_id": "CASE-1",
 "expected_verdict": "support", "expected_reason": "...",
 "source_type": "paper", "falsification_contract": {...},
 "actual_verdict": null, "recorded_at": "...", "concluded_at": null,
 "prev_hash": null,
 "event_hash": "sha256(prev_hash || 0x00 || canonical payload)"}

verify recomputes every event_hash and checks each prev_hash link. Any tampering 鈥?editing a reason, deleting a line, reordering events 鈥?breaks the chain at a specific line number.

Falsification reports

A falsification report is the machine-readable evidence produced by an independent check (null-model randomization, OOS rank IC, FDR correction, protocol deviation, effect CI, cost sensitivity, ...). The contract:

• schema: schema/falsification-report.schema.json (draft 2020-12, additionalProperties: false, fail-closed);
• content ID: sha256: over domain-prefix || 0x00 || canonical JSON 鈥? the same report always yields the same ID, a one-field change yields a different ID;
• evidence status (fail-closed for gates):
  • valid 鈥?conformant, conclusion not_falsified, consistency intact;
  • invalid 鈥?non-conformant, or conclusion falsified, or explicitly inconsistent;
  • missing 鈥?conclusion inconclusive: treated as absent evidence.

Verification model

fl verify is the tamper-evidence layer: it re-derives the entire chain from the file bytes and reports the first bad line. Combined with preregister (frozen expectations) and submit (content-addressed evidence), a research pipeline can prove to itself 鈥?and to reviewers 鈥?that the expectation existed before the evidence did. Nothing here trades, prices, or decides.

Development

python -m pip install -e . pytest
python -m pytest

CI runs the full test suite on Ubuntu, Windows and macOS with Python 3.11 and 3.12. Issues are handled on weekends; pull requests are welcome.

Related work

• Olken (2015), Promises and Perils of Pre-Analysis Plans 鈥?the economics of freezing expectations
• Banerjee & Duflo, In Praise of Moderation 鈥?layered pre-registration
• L贸pez de Prado (2023), Causal Factor Investing 鈥?can factor investing become scientific?
• EviBound: Evidence-Bound Autonomous Research (arXiv:2511.05524) 鈥?governance for agentic research
• ECLIPSE v2.0: A Systematic Falsification Framework 鈥?enforce falsifiability integrity

Project family

Part of Foolproof Labs — a toolchain against self-deception in quantitative research:

• pit-adjuster — PIT back-adjustment with static forward-adjustment drift detection
• falsification-ledger — pre-registration and falsification ledger
• factor-qc — fail-closed backtest quality gate
• lesson-book — tuition memory for traders
• lookahead-free — verifiable look-ahead-freedom checks
• ashare-data-immunity — data immunity for A-share daily bars

License

MIT