fawp-index 0.8.0

FAWP Alpha Index — Information-Control Exclusion Principle detector

fawp-index

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Your model still predicts. But you've already lost control.

fawp-index detects the moment when a system crosses into the Information-Control Exclusion Principle regime — where predictive information persists but the ability to act on it has collapsed.

This happens more than you think:

Domain	What predicts	What collapses
📈 Quant finance	Factor alpha signal	Market execution edge (crowding)
🌀 Dynamical systems	State forecasts	Stabilizing control authority
🌊 Weather / climate	Forecast skill	Intervention window
🌍 Seismic	Precursor signal	Stress release control
🤖 ML systems	Model predictions	Ability to retrain / intervene

This is not a failure of prediction. It is a structural decoupling — and it has a precise information-theoretic signature.

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Install

pip install fawp-index                  # core (numpy + pandas)
pip install fawp-index[plot]            # + matplotlib figures
pip install fawp-index[finance]         # + Yahoo Finance loader
pip install fawp-index[weather]         # + requests (weather feeds)
pip install fawp-index[sklearn]         # + scikit-learn (FAWPTransformer)
pip install fawp-index[all]             # everything

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60-second quickstart

import numpy as np
from fawp_index import FAWPAlphaIndex

pred    = np.random.randn(5000)
future  = pred[20:] + np.random.randn(4980) * 0.3
action  = np.random.randn(4980) * 0.001   # near zero = FAWP
obs     = np.random.randn(4980) * 0.1

result = FAWPAlphaIndex().compute(pred[:4980], future, action, obs)
print(result.summary())
result.plot()   # requires: pip install fawp-index[plot]

==================================================
FAWP Alpha Index v2.1 — Results Summary
==================================================
Agency Horizon (tau_h):  4
Peak Alpha Index:        2.2326
Peak Alpha at tau:       9
FAWP regime detected:   YES
FAWP tau range:          [4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12]
==================================================

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Works natively with DataFrames

import pandas as pd
from fawp_index import fawp_from_dataframe

df = pd.read_csv("my_data.csv")

result = fawp_from_dataframe(
    df,
    pred_col   = "factor_score",
    action_col = "trade_size",
    future_col = "forward_return",
)
print(result.summary())

Rolling regime detection

from fawp_index import fawp_rolling

df_annotated = fawp_rolling(df, pred_col="returns", action_col="volume")
df_annotated[df_annotated["fawp_in_regime"]]

Adds columns: fawp_pred_mi, fawp_steer_mi, fawp_gap, fawp_in_regime

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Sklearn compatible

from fawp_index.sklearn_api import FAWPTransformer
from sklearn.pipeline import Pipeline

pipe = Pipeline([
    ("fawp", FAWPTransformer(pred_col=0, action_col=1, delta=20)),
])
pipe.fit(X)
score = pipe.score(X)   # peak FAWP alpha index

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Feature importance

from fawp_index.features import FAWPFeatureImportance

fi = FAWPFeatureImportance(action_col="trade_size", delta=21)
result = fi.fit(df, feature_cols=["momentum", "value", "quality", "carry"])
print(result.summary())
result.plot()

Rank     Feature    Alpha  Pred MI  Steer MI   FAWP
   1    momentum   1.8823   2.1034    0.0003  ✓
   2       carry   0.4211   0.5102    0.0041  ✓
   3       value   0.0000   0.0823    0.1204
   4     quality   0.0000   0.0412    0.2891
2/4 features in FAWP regime

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Quant finance

from fawp_index.quant import (
    FAWPRegimeDetector,     # rolling market breakdown flag
    MomentumDecayDetector,  # crowded trade detection
    RiskParityWarning,      # vol-targeting failure warning
    EventStudyFAWP,         # pre/post announcement analysis
)

detector = FAWPRegimeDetector(window=252, step=21)
result = detector.detect(returns, volumes)
print(result.summary())

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Command line

fawp-index mydata.csv --state price --action trade_size --plot

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Reproduce published figures

The real E8 experimental data is bundled with the package:

python examples/reproduce_e8.py --save

Exactly reproduces figures from:

"Forecasting Without Power: Agency Horizons and the Leverage Gap" Ralph Clayton (2026) · doi:10.5281/zenodo.18663547

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The mathematics

The FAWP Alpha Index v2.1:

α₂(τ) = I[τ≥1] · g(τ) · (Sₘ(τ) − Ĩ_steer(τ)) · (1 + κ · R_log(τ))

• g(τ) — gate: fires when pred MI > η AND steer MI ≤ ε
• Sₘ(τ) — windowed-min corrected predictive MI (persistence)
• Ĩ_steer(τ) — null-corrected steering MI: I(action_t ; obs_{t+τ+1})
• R_log(τ) — log-slope resonance amplifier near the horizon

The agency horizon τ_h is where steering MI first falls below ε. Near τ_h, predictive MI does not fall — it surges. This resonance ridge is the empirical signature of the Information-Control Exclusion Principle.

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What this is not

• ❌ Not a forecasting model
• ❌ Not a trading signal
• ✅ A diagnostic: tells you when your model is in an irrecoverable information regime

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Citation

@software{clayton2026fawpindex,
  author    = {Ralph Clayton},
  title     = {fawp-index: FAWP Alpha Index v2.1},
  year      = {2026},
  url       = {https://github.com/DrRalphClayton/fawp-index}
}

@article{clayton2026agency,
  author = {Ralph Clayton},
  title  = {Forecasting Without Power: Agency Horizons and the Leverage Gap},
  year   = {2026},
  doi    = {10.5281/zenodo.18663547}
}

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Links

• 📦 PyPI: pypi.org/project/fawp-index
• 📂 GitHub: github.com/DrRalphClayton/fawp-index
• 📄 Paper (E1-E7): doi:10.5281/zenodo.18663547
• 📄 Paper (E8): doi:10.5281/zenodo.18673949
• 📗 Book: Forecasting Without Power — Ralph Clayton (2026)

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MIT License · Ralph Clayton · 2026