Real-time Forecast Package

A Python package for real-time orchestration of forecasting models.

Installation

pip install "forecast-realtime[models]"

Import your data

Outturns use a long-form DataFrame with date, frequency, variable, value, vintage_date and metric columns. This walkthrough uses the bundled data generator; replace sample_data with your own DataFrame.

import forecast_evaluation as fe
import forecast_realtime as rt

sample_data = rt.generate_synthetic_data(
    N=2,
    first_period="2015-01-31",
    endpoint="2024-12-31",
)
print(sample_data.head().to_string(index=False))
forecast_data = fe.NowcastData(outturns_data=sample_data)

The first five generated outturn rows are:

        date frequency  variable      value vintage_date metric
2015-01-31         M monthly_1 101.577869   2024-01-31 levels
2015-01-31         M monthly_2 101.256092   2024-01-31 levels
2015-02-28         M monthly_1 101.293703   2024-01-31 levels
2015-02-28         M monthly_1  -0.279752   2024-01-31    pop
2015-02-28         M monthly_2  98.456195   2024-01-31 levels

Use an existing model

existing_model = rt.models.ForecastRidge(label="Ridge", cv=5, scale=True)

Add your own model

Subclass ForecastModel and implement _fit() and _forecast(). y and X arrive as pandas DataFrames.

import numpy as np


class MyOLS(rt.ForecastModel):
    """Small OLS model showing the custom-model authoring pattern."""

    def _fit(self, y, X=None, **kwargs):
        # y and X are passed as pandas DataFrames
        if X is None:
            raise ValueError("MyOLS requires X")
        X = X.to_numpy(dtype=float)
        y = y.to_numpy(dtype=float)

        # OLS estimate: beta = (X'X)^-1 X'y
        self.beta = np.linalg.inv(X.T @ X) @ X.T @ y

        return self

    def _forecast(self, steps, X=None, y=None, **kwargs):
        if X is None:
            raise ValueError("MyOLS requires future X")
        # ForecastModel passes the historical and future design rows.
        future_X = X.loc[X.index > self.last_y_fit_date].iloc[:steps]
        return future_X.to_numpy(dtype=float) @ self.beta


custom_model = MyOLS(label="My OLS")

Forecast

Pass one or more models to RealTimeModel, then call forecast():

rt_model = rt.RealTimeModel(
    data=forecast_data,
    models=[existing_model, custom_model],
)

rt_model.forecast(
    y_variables=["quarterly_1"],
    X_variables=["quarterly_2"],
    data_transformation={"quarterly_1": "pop", "quarterly_2": "pop"},
    steps=2,
    X_imputation="last",
    first_vintage="2024-01-31",
    last_vintage="2024-06-30",
)
print(rt_model.data.forecasts.head().to_string(index=False))

Documentation

• docs/index.md — how ForecastModel and RealTimeModel work.
• docs/models.md — built-in models and R/MATLAB/Julia wrappers.
• docs/usage.md — lags, dummies, imputation, transformations, news decomposition and parallel execution.
• adding_a_model.md — the full ForecastModel interface.
• forecasting_strategy.md — forecasting methodology.
• CONTRIBUTING.md — development setup and workflow.

Data Classification

Bank of England Data Classification: OFFICIAL BLUE