geocif 0.4.364

Models to visualize and forecast crop conditions and yields

geocif

Models to visualize and forecast crop conditions and yields

Generate Climatic Impact-Drivers (CIDs) from Earth Observation (EO) data, build ML yield forecasting models, and produce agmet condition monitoring plots.

Climatic Impact-Drivers for Crop Yield Assessment at NASA Harvest

• Free software: MIT license
• Documentation: https://ritviksahajpal.github.io/yield_forecasting/

Setup

Requirements

• Python 3.11+
• uv

Install

cd geocif                   # project root (where pyproject.toml lives)
uv sync                     # creates .venv and installs all dependencies

On Windows, uv automatically pulls pre-built geospatial wheels (GDAL, rasterio, fiona, shapely, pyproj, rtree) from the URLs in [tool.uv.sources]. On Linux/macOS, those entries are skipped (platform marker) and packages are installed from PyPI.

To activate the environment:

# Windows
.venv\Scripts\activate

# Linux/macOS
source .venv/bin/activate

Fresh reinstall

rm -rf .venv && uv sync

Config files

File	Purpose	Used by
geobase.txt	Paths, shapefile column mappings	both
countries.txt	Per-country config (boundary files, admin levels, seasons, crops)	both
crops.txt	Crop masks, calendar categories (EWCM, AMIS)	both
geoextract.txt	Extraction-only settings (method, threshold, parallelism)	geoprepare
geocif.txt	Indices/ML/agmet settings, country overrides, runtime selections	geocif

Usage

Order matters: Config files are loaded left-to-right. When the same key appears in multiple files, the last file wins. The tool-specific file (geoextract.txt or geocif.txt) must be last so its [DEFAULT] values (countries, method, etc.) override the shared defaults in countries.txt.

config_dir = "/path/to/config"  # full path to your config directory

cfg_geoprepare = [f"{config_dir}/geobase.txt", f"{config_dir}/countries.txt", f"{config_dir}/crops.txt", f"{config_dir}/geoextract.txt"]
cfg_geocif = [f"{config_dir}/geobase.txt", f"{config_dir}/countries.txt", f"{config_dir}/crops.txt", f"{config_dir}/geocif.txt"]

geoprepare (download, extract, merge)

from geoprepare import geodownload
geodownload.run([f"{config_dir}/geobase.txt"])

from geoprepare import geoextract
geoextract.run(cfg_geoprepare)

from geoprepare import geomerge
geomerge.run(cfg_geoprepare)

geocif (indices, ML, agmet, analysis, experiments)

from geocif import indices_runner
indices_runner.run(cfg_geocif)

from geocif import geocif_runner
geocif_runner.run(cfg_geocif)

from geocif.agmet import geoagmet
geoagmet.run(cfg_geocif)

from geocif import analysis
analysis.run(cfg_geocif)

from geocif import experiments
experiments.run(cfg_geocif, n_trials=30)

from geocif import yield_outlook
yield_outlook.run(cfg_geocif)  # uses config defaults (10 years, mean)
# yield_outlook.run(cfg_geocif, current_year=2026, n_years=10, aggregation="median")

ML models

geocif supports the following model types (configured via models in [DEFAULT]):

Model	Key	Type
CatBoost	catboost	Gradient boosting
XGBoost	xgboost	Gradient boosting
TabPFN	tabpfn	Prior-fitted network
TabICL	tabicl	In-context learning
NGBoost	ngboost	Natural gradient boosting
YDF	ydf	Yggdrasil decision forests
Oblique RF	oblique	Oblique random forest
Cubist	cubist	Rule-based regression
MERF	merf	Mixed effects random forest
Linear	linear	LassoCV / LogisticRegressionCV
GAM	gam	Generalized additive model
GeoSpaNN	geospaNN	Geospatial neural network
Median	median	Median baseline
Analog	analog	Analogous year baseline

Feature selection methods

Configured via feature_selection in [ML]:

none, SelectKBest, BorutaPy, Leshy, gOMP, RFECV, RFE, lasso, mrmr, SHAP, stabl, PowerShap, BorutaShap, Genetic, feature_engine, multi

Spatial neighbor features

Optional GraphSAGE-style preprocessing that computes yield-correlation-weighted averages of neighboring regions' features. Enabled via [ML]:

use_spatial_neighbors = True
spatial_neighbor_method = knn   ; knn or full
spatial_neighbor_k = 5          ; number of nearest neighbors

For each admin region, the neighbor graph is built from training data using haversine distances and Pearson yield correlations as edge weights. Neighbor-aggregated features are added as nbr_* columns and flow through standard feature selection.

Experiments output

The experiments runner writes to a dedicated DB and analysis folder under dir_output:

{dir_output}/
└── ml/
    ├── db/
    │   └── experiments_{MMMM_DD_YYYY_HH}H.db
    │
    └── analysis/
        └── {MMMM_DD_YYYY}/
            ├── experiments/                            # Experiment 0 (model comparison)
            │   ├── experiment_metrics.csv
            │   ├── heatmap_models.png
            │   ├── boxplot_models.png
            │   ├── regional_mape_models_{country}.png
            │   ├── error_distribution_models.png
            │   └── metric_comparison.png
            │
            └── optimization/                           # Optuna hyperparameter search
                ├── optuna_trials.csv
                ├── best_params.csv
                ├── convergence.png
                ├── optimization_history.png
                ├── param_importances.png
                └── parallel_coordinate.png

Outlook output

The yield outlook runner produces a diverging choropleth map showing current forecast yield as a percentage of the historical mean/median prediction per region, plus a combined CSV.

{dir_output}/
└── ml/
    └── analysis/
        └── {MMMM_DD_YYYY}/
            └── outlook/
                ├── yield_outlook_{country}_{crop}_{model}_{stage}_{year}.png
                └── yield_outlook_{year}.csv

Config file documentation

geobase.txt

Shared paths and dataset settings. All directory paths are derived from dir_base.

[PATHS]
dir_base = /gpfs/data1/cmongp1/GEO

dir_inputs = ${dir_base}/inputs
dir_logs = ${dir_base}/logs
dir_download = ${dir_inputs}/download
dir_intermed = ${dir_inputs}/intermed
dir_metadata = ${dir_inputs}/metadata
dir_condition = ${dir_inputs}/crop_condition
dir_crop_inputs = ${dir_condition}/crop_t20

dir_boundary_files = ${dir_metadata}/boundary_files
dir_crop_calendars = ${dir_metadata}/crop_calendars
dir_crop_masks = ${dir_metadata}/crop_masks
dir_images = ${dir_metadata}/images
dir_production_statistics = ${dir_metadata}/production_statistics

dir_output = ${dir_base}/outputs

[DATASETS]
datasets = ['CHIRPS', 'CPC', 'NDVI', 'ESI', 'NSIDC', 'AEF']

countries.txt

Single source of truth for per-country config. Shared by both geoprepare and geocif.

[DEFAULT]
boundary_file = gaul1_asap_v04.shp
admin_level = admin_1
seasons = [1]
crops = ['maize']
category = AMIS
use_cropland_mask = False
calendar_file = crop_calendar.csv

; AMIS countries (inherit from DEFAULT, override crops if needed)
[argentina]
crops = ['soybean', 'winter_wheat', 'maize']

; EWCM countries (full per-country config)
[kenya]
category = EWCM
admin_level = admin_1
seasons = [1, 2]
use_cropland_mask = True
boundary_file = adm_shapefile.gpkg
calendar_file = EWCM_2025-04-21.xlsx
crops = ['maize']

[malawi]
category = EWCM
admin_level = admin_2
use_cropland_mask = True
boundary_file = adm_shapefile.gpkg
calendar_file = EWCM_2025-04-21.xlsx
crops = ['maize']

crops.txt

Crop mask filenames and calendar category definitions.

; Crop masks
[maize]
mask = Percent_Maize.tif

[winter_wheat]
mask = Percent_Winter_Wheat.tif

[sorghum]
mask = cropland_v9.tif

; Calendar categories
[EWCM]
use_cropland_mask = True
calendar_file = EWCM_2026-01-05.xlsx
crops = ['maize', 'sorghum', 'millet', 'rice', 'winter_wheat', 'teff']
eo_model = ['aef', 'nsidc_surface', 'nsidc_rootzone', 'ndvi', 'cpc_tmax', 'cpc_tmin', 'chirps', 'chirps_gefs', 'esi_4wk']

[AMIS]
calendar_file = AMISCM_2026-01-05.xlsx

geoextract.txt

Extraction-only settings for geoprepare. Loaded last so its [DEFAULT] overrides shared defaults.

[DEFAULT]
method = JRC
redo = False
threshold = True
floor = 20
ceil = 90
countries = ["malawi"]
forecast_seasons = [2022]

[PROJECT]
parallel_extract = True
parallel_merge = False

geocif.txt

Indices, ML, and agmet settings for geocif. Country overrides go here when geocif needs different values than countries.txt (e.g., a subset of crops).

[AGMET]
eo_plot = ['ndvi', 'chirts_era5_tmax', 'chirts_era5_tmin', 'chirps', 'esi_4wk', 'nsidc_surface', 'nsidc_rootzone']
logo_harvest = harvest.png
logo_geoglam = geoglam.png

; Country overrides (only where geocif differs from countries.txt)
[ethiopia]
crops = ['winter_wheat']

[bangladesh]
crops = ['rice']
admin_level = admin_2
boundary_file = bangladesh.shp

; ML model definitions
[catboost]
ML_model = True

[analog]
ML_model = False

[ML]
model_type = REGRESSION
target = Yield (tn per ha)
feature_selection = gOMP
cluster_strategy = single
check_yield_trend = False
use_spatial_neighbors = True
spatial_neighbor_method = knn
spatial_neighbor_k = 5
lag_yield_as_feature = True
lag_years = 3
median_yield_as_feature = False
median_years = 5
include_lat_lon_as_feature = False
panel_model = True
cat_features = ["Harvest Year", "Region_ID", "Region"]
outlook_n_years = 10        ; Number of historical years for yield outlook comparison
outlook_aggregation = mean  ; mean or median

[LOGGING]
log_level = INFO

[DEFAULT]
data_source = harvest
method = monthly_r
project_name = geocif
countries = ["kenya"]
crops = ['maize']
admin_level = admin_1
models = ['catboost']
seasons = [1]
threshold = True
floor = 20

FLDAS forecast overlay

When FLDAS columns are present in the merged data (e.g. fldas_tair_tavg_lead0 through _lead5), agmet plots automatically overlay forecast dots on matching panels:

FLDAS variable	Target panel
fldas_tair_tavg	Temperature
fldas_totalprecip_tavg	Daily precipitation
fldas_soilmoist_tavg	Soil moisture (surface)

Each lead time (0–5) appears as a diamond marker with decreasing opacity (lead 0 = most opaque). Dots beyond the harvest date are suppressed. No config changes are needed — detection is automatic.

Credits

This project was supported by NASA Applied Sciences Grant No. 80NSSC17K0625 through the NASA Harvest Consortium, and the NASA Acres Consortium under NASA Grant #80NSSC23M0034.