glacial-seismic-sensitivity-utac
GenesisAeon Package 133 (registry class KLIMA-KRYO-13) – companion to
glacial-seismicity-utac (P101).
Tests whether earthquake catalogues near melting glaciers show an early stage of a delayed
response to ice unloading – not via rate trends, but via a growing sensitivity to the seasonal
load. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge – see DISCLAIMER.md.
Deutsche Fassung: README.de.md. Plain-language German summary: WHITEPAPER.md.
Question
If the mantle answers ice loss with a delay (decades to millennia), a flat trend in earthquake rates today is no reassurance. A more sensitive test is whether the same seasonal unloading triggers more earthquakes over time. This package tests that with real catalogues (USGS ComCat, Alaska Earthquake Center, Swiss Seismological Service, GeoNet, Icelandic Met Office, GEUS), GRACE/GRACE-FO mass loads and ERA5 precipitation, and pre-registers a confirmatory test on data from November 2026 on.
Key results (data 1990–2025; details in docs/RESULTS.md)
| Test | Result |
|---|---|
| F1 growing seasonal modulation | No region significant after Benjamini–Hochberg. SE Alaska (AEC, primary): +0.035 ± 0.023 per decade, one-sided permutation p = 0.10. Iceland: decreasing. Greenland: p = 0.006 uncorrected, likely a network artefact. |
| F2 sensitivity per kPa (GRACE) | SE Alaska: 4.0 ± 1.1 % per kPa of seasonal unloading (close to Johnson et al. 2020: 3.5 %/kPa), but no growth (−1.3 ± 1.1 % per kPa per decade). |
| F3 rain vs load | SE Alaska: not separable (r = 0.68). Southern Alps (NZ): load preferred over rain (exploratory). |
| Lag model (scenarios) | Relaxation times 23 yr (Patagonia) to ~2000 yr (Alps). Narrow mountain loads respond mostly elastically. A delayed viscous rate increase would not be detectable as a trend before ~2155 in any of 126 scenarios. |
| Criticality battery | 16 of 544 single tests significant after BH, mostly network/Mc, b-value and variance effects (4 in control regions); 0 of 180 glacier-vs-control group tests; no rising autocorrelation anywhere. |
| Confirmatory test C1 | Frozen 2026-10-10. Looks 2029-10-31 (α 0.01) and 2036-10-31 (α 0.04). Detects ~doubling of SE Alaska modulation by 2036. |
| A Tipping scenarios (v0.1.0) | Accelerating ice loss scaled to published ranges (Edwards 2021, DeConto 2021). Promoted-fault seismicity in 2100: SE Greenland 1.0–1.24×, Amundsen (DeConto 3 °C) 1.1–1.9×, SE Alaska 1.05–2.35×. An increase becomes detectable at the earliest in 2046 (SE Alaska, steepest path, κ = 1); Greenland only after 2100. The drop in seasonal modulation stays undetectable through 2100. |
| B Deceptive pre-tipping quiet | Possible in the model if > 50 % of faults sit in the stress shadow. It starts 7–60 yr after the acceleration begins, is 4–16 % deep and is statistically detectable around 2083 at the earliest. The geodetic indicators respond earlier. |
| Present-day precursors M1–M5 | GRACE: only Patagonia accelerates (ξ = 0.039 ± 0.007/yr); Greenland and Vatnajökull decelerate. GNSS: uplift accelerates at TOMO/BACK (Amundsen), AB50 (SE Alaska) and KELY (W Greenland). Rule-based quiescence only in the NZ Southern Alps (the control in the same network shows a similar drop). Iceland: no quiescence. |
| CSN Chile (Potin et al. 2024) | Control 1990–2019: no growing seasonal modulation (−0.070 ± 0.041 per decade). The catalogue does not cover Patagonia. |
What this excludes and what stays open: see docs/LIMITATIONS.md. In short: a strong increase of seasonal sensitivity of small earthquakes since 1990 is unlikely in SE Alaska; delayed viscous responses, single large ruptures and volcanic effects are not excluded.
v0.2.0 (released 2026-10-10)
Pre-registered addendum PREREGISTRATION_v0.2.md (frozen 2026-10-10,
before the analyses; v0.1.0 unchanged). Details: docs/RESULTS.md (v0.2 section),
docs/METHODS_v02.md, docs/v02_benchmarks.md.
In-force addendum PREREGISTRATION_v0.2_NACHTRAG.md (2026-10-10; frozen JSON
results/frozen_v02_addendum_2026-10-10.json, SHA-256 bc2d2af3…7ff49; clarifications only, earlier
frozen files unchanged). Raw reviews: docs/reviews/raw/.
Run: glacial-sensitivity v02 (stages m0 m1 m2 m3 m4 base plot; resumable).
| Milestone | Result |
|---|---|
| M2 ETAS with yearly background (H2.1) | SE Alaska minus Interior Alaska: +0.41 ± 0.14 per decade, p = 0.0017 – formally significant, but driven by 1995–2002 (low catalogue counts in both regions); from 2003 on +0.11 ± 0.16 (exploratory). The preregistered rule fired, but not robust (from 2003; tmax 3 yr): most likely a catalogue/model artefact, not a glacial signal. µ is the ETAS residual background, not an identified forcing. |
| M2 deceptive quiet (H2.2) | No region meets the predefined masked-background-rise criterion (moderate effects not excluded, esp. Iceland/Greenland). The v0.1.0 NZ Southern Alps quiet is a genuine background decrease in the model, but Mc-dependent and network-wide. |
| M3 body tides (H3) | No significant correlation with the phase of the degree-2 body-tide areal strain, no b-value split (BH). SE Alaska MDE 6.8 % relative to that phase. Exploratory ocean loading (SPOTL/TPXO 7.2), tested against random times: still nothing significant (smallest BH q 0.38). Fault-resolved stress not modelled. |
| M1 catalogue robustness | F1 in SE Alaska robust to declustering; NZ quiet disappears with an EMR-type Mc. |
| M4 lag (thin-plate/half-space sensitivity informed by Sasgen et al. 2026) | SE Alaska earliest detection year 2045.8 → 2047.3 (within the reduced model insensitive to viscosity – a model property); Iceland τ ~300 → ~10 yr, 2070 → 2062. |
| C2 (prospective, from 2027-01-01) | Background change glacier vs control with frozen ETAS parameters; looks 2029-12-31 (α 0.01) and 2036-12-31 (α 0.04). Baselines frozen in results/frozen_v02_baselines.json. |
Quickstart
pip install -e ".[dev]"
glacial-sensitivity info # regions, paths
glacial-sensitivity fetch # ~200 MB raw data into data/raw/ (not in git), ~15-30 min
glacial-sensitivity run # all analyses -> results/ (~30 min; GSS_N_PERM / GSS_N_SURROGATES to tune)
glacial-sensitivity extensions # precursors, tipping scenarios, quiescence, CSN Chile (~10 min, after run)
glacial-sensitivity plot # charts -> charts/
glacial-sensitivity lag # GIA relaxation-time table (no data needed)
pytest # offline tests on synthetic data and fixtures
Confirmatory run (after 2029-10-31 + 30 days):
GSS_END=2029-12-01 glacial-sensitivity fetch --force
python -m glacial_seismic_sensitivity_utac.confirmatory 2029-10-31
Layout
| Path | Content |
|---|---|
src/glacial_seismic_sensitivity_utac/ |
fetch/ (data), catalog, decluster, glm, loads, sensitivity (F1–F3), lagmodel (F5), seasonal, power, criticality, confirmatory, precursors, tipping, quiescence, extensions, honesty, plots, cli |
results/ |
all result tables, frozen_confirmatory_parameters.json, frozen_monitoring_indicators.json |
charts/ |
19 charts (01–17) |
PREREGISTRATION.md |
experiment series and pre-registration (German, English summary) |
docs/ |
METHODS, RESULTS, LAG_MODEL, ANALOGIES, DATA, LIMITATIONS, SOURCES, RELEASE_CHECKLIST (German) |
scripts/verify_dois.py |
resolves every DOI in constants.py and docs/SOURCES.md via Crossref/DataCite |
Honesty layer
honesty.py contains functions that return False by design, e.g.
does_flat_trend_exclude_delayed_response(), are_retrospective_1990_2025_tests_preregistered(),
is_growing_sensitivity_the_generic_rate_state_expectation(). They document what this package does
not show.
Citation and licence
See CITATION.cff. Zenodo: v0.1.0 doi:10.5281/zenodo.23281091; all versions (concept DOI) doi:10.5281/zenodo.23281090. MIT licence. Data remain under their providers' terms (docs/DATA.md). Package 133 is entered in the GenesisAeon package registry as KLIMA-KRYO-13.
1 maintainer
Metadata
1 maintainer
Release files for glacial-seismic-sensitivity-utac 0.2.0
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