glacial-seismicity-utac

GenesisAeon Package 101 — Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) and glacially-induced/modulated seismicity. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

Two explicit confidence tiers

• Core (mechanics, historic, modern): real, peer-reviewed findings independently re-verified 2026-08-11 via direct paper/DOI lookup. Two numbers from the source research dialogue (Glacialschmelze_Tektonik.txt) were found to be wrong during this verification and are corrected here — see ALASKA_CORRECTION_NOTE.
• Documented (regions.py's four extra entries): real regions carried over from the source dialogue without the same independent re-verification. Every entry's confidence field says which tier it's in.

What's real here (core)

• Historic deglaciation (~20-8 ka) — GIA as primary driver: the Pärvie Fault, Fennoscandia (155 km long, the world's longest known postglacial fault, M8.0±0.4) and the Charlevoix Seismic Zone, eastern Canada (1663 earthquake, M7.5±0.45; present GIA rebound stress ~10 MPa, "a non-negligible source of stress perturbation" per Verdecchia et al. 2022).
• Modern glacier retreat — GIA as modulator: the Fairweather Fault/Glacier Bay Icefield, Alaska (Rollins et al. 2021 — >3,000 km³ ice lost since ~1770, ~0.2-0.6 MPa Coulomb stress increase at the site of the 1958 Mw7.8 rupture); the Mont Blanc massif (Simon et al. 2025 — seismic hazard up ~2 orders of magnitude since 2015 from meltwater pore pressure); and present-day eastern North America (Hightower & Gurnis 2025 — <2 MPa background, 3-4 MPa near pre-existing weak zones).
• Coulomb Failure Stress mechanics (mechanics.py): standard rock-mechanics physics (King, Stein & Lin 1994) for lithostatic unloading and meltwater pore-pressure effects on fault stability.

What was corrected

The source dialogue's Alaska case originally claimed ">1200 km³" ice loss and "2-3 MPa" stress change. Independent verification against Rollins et al. (2021) found the real figures are >3,000 km³ ice loss (understated by ~2.5x) and ~0.2-0.6 MPa stress change (overstated by ~5-10x). See ALASKA_CORRECTION_NOTE.

What's documented but not independently re-verified

Greenland (historic), Iceland, High Mountain Asia and Patagonia (modern) — real regions from the source literature synthesis, kept for completeness but flagged (confidence="documented") since they didn't get the same direct paper-by-paper check as the five core cases.

Quickstart

pip install glacial-seismicity-utac

from glacial_seismicity_utac import (
    PARVIE_FAULT,
    ALASKA_FAIRWEATHER,
    MONT_BLANC_MASSIF,
    ALL_REGIONS,
    core_regions,
    is_gia_primary_driver,
    coulomb_failure_stress_change_pa,
)

print(PARVIE_FAULT.magnitude, PARVIE_FAULT.magnitude_uncertainty)  # 8.0 0.4
print(ALASKA_FAIRWEATHER.stress_change_mpa_range)                  # (0.2, 0.6)
print(len(core_regions()))                                         # 5

# Meltwater pore-pressure increase promoting fault failure:
delta_cfs = coulomb_failure_stress_change_pa(
    delta_shear_stress_pa=0.0,
    friction_coefficient=0.6,
    delta_normal_stress_pa=0.0,
    delta_pore_pressure_pa=-1e6,
)
print(delta_cfs > 0)  # True -- promotes failure

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.