insurance-severity 0.1.0

Insurance severity modelling: composite (spliced) models and Distributional Refinement Networks

insurance-severity

Comprehensive severity modelling for UK insurance pricing. Two complementary approaches in one package.

The problem

Claim severity distributions don't behave like textbook Gamma distributions. You have a body of attritional losses and a heavy tail of large losses, and these two populations have different drivers. Standard GLMs smooth over this structure. This package gives you two principled ways to deal with it.

What's in the package

insurance_severity.composite — spliced severity models

Composite (spliced) models divide the claim distribution at a threshold into a body distribution (moderate claims) and a tail distribution (large losses). Each component is fitted separately and joined at the threshold.

What this package adds that R doesn't have: covariate-dependent thresholds. For a motor book, the threshold between attritional and large loss isn't the same for a HGV fleet and a private motor policy. With mode-matching regression, the threshold varies by policyholder.

Supported combinations:

• Lognormal body + Burr XII tail (mode-matching supported)
• Lognormal body + GPD tail
• Gamma body + GPD tail

Features:

• Fixed threshold, profile likelihood, and mode-matching threshold methods
• Covariate-dependent tail scale regression (CompositeSeverityRegressor)
• ILF computation per policyholder
• TVaR (Tail Value at Risk)
• Quantile residuals, mean excess plots, Q-Q plots

import numpy as np
from insurance_severity import LognormalBurrComposite, CompositeSeverityRegressor

rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
n = 1000

# Synthetic severity data: lognormal attritional body + Pareto-like large losses
attritional = rng.lognormal(mean=7.5, sigma=1.2, size=int(n * 0.85))  # ~£1,800 median
large_losses = rng.pareto(a=2.5, size=int(n * 0.15)) * 50_000 + 10_000
claim_amounts = np.concatenate([attritional, large_losses])
rng.shuffle(claim_amounts)

# Rating factors for regression example
vehicle_age = rng.integers(0, 15, n).astype(float)
driver_age = rng.integers(18, 75, n).astype(float)
ncd_years = rng.integers(0, 5, n).astype(float)
X = np.column_stack([vehicle_age, driver_age, ncd_years])
n_train = int(0.8 * n)
X_train, X_test = X[:n_train], X[n_train:]
y_train = claim_amounts[:n_train]

# No covariates -- mode-matching threshold
model = LognormalBurrComposite(threshold_method="mode_matching")
model.fit(claim_amounts)
print(model.threshold_)
print(model.ilf(limit=500_000, basic_limit=250_000))

# With covariates -- threshold varies by policyholder
reg = CompositeSeverityRegressor(
    composite=LognormalBurrComposite(threshold_method="mode_matching"),
)
reg.fit(X_train, y_train)
thresholds = reg.predict_thresholds(X_test)   # per-policyholder thresholds
ilf_matrix = reg.compute_ilf(X_test, limits=[100_000, 250_000, 500_000, 1_000_000])

insurance_severity.drn — Distributional Refinement Network

The DRN (Avanzi, Dong, Laub, Wong 2024, arXiv:2406.00998) starts from a frozen GLM or GBM baseline and refines it into a full predictive distribution using a neural network. The network outputs bin-probability adjustments to a histogram representation of the distribution, not the mean.

The practical payoff: you keep the actuarial calibration of your existing GLM pricing model, and the neural network fills in the distributional shape that the GLM can't capture — skewness, heteroskedastic dispersion, tail behaviour by segment.

Note: the DRN requires PyTorch. Install it before using this subpackage:

pip install torch --index-url https://download.pytorch.org/whl/cpu
pip install insurance-severity[glm]

import numpy as np
from insurance_severity import GLMBaseline, DRN
import statsmodels.formula.api as smf
import statsmodels.api as sm
import pandas as pd

rng = np.random.default_rng(42)
n = 1000

# Synthetic severity data with covariates
vehicle_age = rng.integers(0, 15, n).astype(float)
driver_age = rng.integers(18, 75, n).astype(float)
ncd_years = rng.integers(0, 5, n).astype(float)
region = rng.choice(["London", "SE", "NW", "Midlands", "Scotland"], n)

# Lognormal claim amounts with some large losses
log_mu = 7.5 + 0.03 * vehicle_age - 0.005 * driver_age - 0.05 * ncd_years
claim_amounts = rng.lognormal(mean=log_mu, sigma=1.1 + 0.02 * vehicle_age)

n_train = int(0.8 * n)
df = pd.DataFrame({
    "claims": claim_amounts,
    "age": driver_age,
    "vehicle_age": vehicle_age,
    "region": region,
})
df_train = df.iloc[:n_train]
df_test = df.iloc[n_train:]
X_train = np.column_stack([vehicle_age[:n_train], driver_age[:n_train], ncd_years[:n_train]])
X_test = np.column_stack([vehicle_age[n_train:], driver_age[n_train:], ncd_years[n_train:]])
y_train = claim_amounts[:n_train]
y_test = claim_amounts[n_train:]

# Fit your existing GLM
glm = smf.glm(
    "claims ~ age + C(region) + vehicle_age",
    data=df_train,
    family=sm.families.Gamma(sm.families.links.Log()),
).fit()

# Wrap it as a baseline
baseline = GLMBaseline(glm)

# Refine with DRN (scr_aware=True enables SCR-aware bin cutpoints at 99.5th percentile)
drn = DRN(baseline, hidden_size=64, max_epochs=300, scr_aware=True)
drn.fit(X_train, y_train, verbose=True)

# Full predictive distribution per policyholder
dist = drn.predict_distribution(X_test)
print(dist.mean())           # (n,) expected claim
print(dist.quantile(0.995))  # 99.5th percentile -- Solvency II SCR
print(dist.crps(y_test))     # CRPS scoring

Installation

pip install insurance-severity

With GLM support (statsmodels):

pip install insurance-severity[glm]

Subpackages

Access subpackages directly if you only need one approach:

from insurance_severity.composite import LognormalBurrComposite
from insurance_severity.drn import DRN

---

Performance

Benchmarked against single Gamma GLM (statsmodels) on 10,000 synthetic claims with a known heavy-tailed DGP — Lognormal body below the splice point, Pareto tail above. Full notebook: notebooks/benchmark.py.

Metric	Gamma GLM	Composite spliced (insurance-severity)
Log-likelihood	lower	higher
AIC	higher	lower
90th / 95th / 99th percentile accuracy	underestimates	near DGP truth
ILF at high policy limits	understated	near DGP truth
Fit time	seconds	seconds + profile-likelihood grid

The benchmark tests tail quantile accuracy and ILF curves against the known DGP. The Gamma systematically underestimates tail quantiles because its survival function decays exponentially; the composite model fits a separate tail distribution above the profile-likelihood threshold, recovering the heavy tail.

When to use: XL reinsurance pricing (where the expected loss in a layer depends entirely on tail behaviour), ILF computation at high policy limits, and large loss loading in ground-up pricing where the true severity distribution is Pareto-like. Concrete situations: motor bodily injury, liability lines, property CAT perils.

When NOT to use: When claims are capped (loss-limited data), making it impossible to observe the true tail. Also when the portfolio has fewer than a few thousand claims — the profile-likelihood threshold selection is unstable with sparse data and the composite model may overfit the tail. For homogeneous attritional loss books where a Gamma fits well (small commercial property), the added complexity is not warranted.

Source repos

• insurance-composite — archived, merged into this package
• insurance-drn — archived, merged into this package