makeprediction 4.1.1

Automatic and fast Gaussian process for time serie prediction.

MakePrediction is a package for building an automatic Gaussian process regression (GPR) models for time series prediction in Python. It was originally created by [Hanany Tolba].

• MakePrediction is an open source project. If you have relevant skills and are interested in contributing then please do contact us ([e-mail]).*

Gaussian process regression (GPR):

==========================================

The advantages of this Gaussian processes package:

• Very fast training.

• Very fast prediction.

• The prediction can be interpolated as desired.

• The training of the model is automatic: - no kernel function needs to be specified - an optimal choice of kernel is automatically elaborated.

• Possibility to choose a kernel function manually.

• The prediction is probabilistic (Gaussian) so that confidence intervals can be calculated and used to decide whether to make a strategic decision.

• The package provides an API for deployment.

Where do you find time series?

• Energy

• Finance

• Medical, Biotech, and Healthcare

• IoT Monitoring

• Supply Chain

• Agriculture

• Retail

What does makeprediction do?

• Modelling and analysis time series.

• Automatic time-series prediction (forecasting).

• Real-Time time series prediction.

• Deploy on production the fitted (or saved) makeprediction model.

Applications:

• Energy consumption prediction.

• Energy demand prediction.

• Stock price prediction.

• Stock market prediction.

• ...

Install MakePrediction package

Latest release from PyPI

• pip install makeprediction

Latest source from GitHub

Be aware that the master branch may change regularly, and new commits may break your code.

MakePrediction GitHub repository, run:

• pip install . or
• python setup.py install

Get Started with MakePrediction

Example

Here is a simple example:

Data

import pandas as pd
import numpy as np
import plotly.graph_objects as go

from makeprediction.gpts import GaussianProcessTimeSerie
from makeprediction.kernels import RBF, White, Linear, Periodic, Matern
from makeprediction.visualization import Visualizer

  

#### generate a random noisy time series
###############################

date = pd.date_range(start  =  '2022/06',periods  =  1000, freq  =  '20T')

# As sum of some Gaussian kernels

# As sum of some Gaussian kernels

kernel =   RBF()  + Periodic()  +  White(variance  =  .01)

# add mean and variance
data = 100 +  10*kernel.simulate(date, seed  = np.random.seed(115))
## generate data without fixe np.random.seed
# data = 100 +  10*kernel.simulate(date)

# create a dataframe with data
df = pd.DataFrame(data  = data, index  = date, columns=['value'])
print(df.head())

# split time serie into train and test
TRAIN_SIZE =  int(.8*len(df))
df_train, df_test = df[:TRAIN_SIZE], df[TRAIN_SIZE:]
# Create an instance of the class GaussianProcessTimeSerie with train data:
#########################################
model =  GaussianProcessTimeSerie(df_train.index, df_train.value)
# Show train data with test data
Visualizer.iplot(model, df_test.index, df_test.value)

Train

# fit the model

model.fit()

Test (long term prediction)

We will first show a simple prediction without updating with new observations (in other words without ever using df_test.value). We can say that the prediction horizon is infinite.

#predict with model and plot result

model.predict(df_test.index)

Visualizer.iplot(model, df_test.index, df_test.value)

  

# Model components
#how the components of the model (decomposition)
fig3 = Visualizer.iplot_components(model,return_fig=True)
fig3.write_image("fig3.png",width = 900,height =700, scale = 5)

#plot only test result

fig2 = Visualizer.iplot(model, df_test.index, df_test.value, return_fig=True, test_only=True)
fig2.write_image("fig2.png",width = 1400,height =700)
fig2.show()

Online prediction with horizon = 1

Contrary to the previous case, the horizon is 1. In other words, we predict a first value at a given time, then we will update the model by communicating this observation via the update method and so on (see codes).

  

# Online prediction with updating

ypred = np.empty(shape  = (0,))

ypred_std = np.empty(shape  = (0,))

for x,y in df_test.itertuples():

	# predict for x value

	yp,yp_std = model.predict(x,return_value  =  True)

	ypred = np.append(ypred,yp)

	ypred_std = np.append(ypred_std,yp_std)

	# update the model for (x,y)

	data = {'x_update': x, 'y_update': y}

	model.update(**data)



# Show new prediction

# Show new update prediction

fig2.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df_test.index,
        y=ypred,
        mode="lines",
        name='Prediction(horizon = 1)',
        showlegend=True)
)

fig2.write_image("fig2_update_one_head.png",width = 900,height =700, scale = 5)

  

After updating, how to check?

Note that each time the model is updated with a new data data = {'x_update': x (time), 'y_update': y (value)} or even data vector. The model learns this data and adjusts itself to become more and more efficient.

#prediction of data already seen(updated)
yupdate, _ = model.predict(df_test.index,return_value = True)

fig2.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df_test.index,
        y=ypred,
        mode="lines",
        name='Prediction(horizon = 1)',
        showlegend=True)
)


fig2.add_trace(
    go.Scatter(
        x=df_test.index,
        y=yupdate,
        mode="lines",
        name='Update model',
        showlegend=True)
)
fig2.show()
fig2.write_image("fig2_update.png",width = 900,height =700, scale = 5)