manifold-watch

Get pinged the second a Manifold Markets prediction moves.

Tiny Python CLI that polls Manifold's public API, watches the BINARY markets you care about, and fires alerts to your console / Telegram / Discord the moment a market's implied probability crosses a threshold you set.

No keys, no auth, no signup. Just a YAML file and a wallet for tips.

[manifold-watch] BTC $65k in June  [UP] 0.890 -> 0.992 (+11.46%)
[manifold-watch] BTC $100k EOM Jun [DN] 0.040 -> 0.014 (-65.00%)

Family of tools (same author, same wallet, same UX):

• 🟢 polywatch — Polymarket alert CLI
• 🟢 kalshiwatch — Kalshi alert CLI
• 🟢 manifold-watch — you're here (Manifold Markets)
• 🟢 polywatch-presets — ready-made polywatch configs
• 🟢 prediction-market-mcp — MCP server for Claude/LLMs, covering all three venues with cross-venue arb discovery
• 🟢 prediction-markets-live — read-only dashboard

Why

Manifold Markets is the play-money cousin of Polymarket / Kalshi — fewer dollars at stake, but a much wider catalogue (5k+ active markets at any given time) and weirder long-tail topics that don't show up on the regulated venues. Useful as a "what is the smart money thinking about X?" sensor, and great for cross-venue divergence trading against Polymarket / Kalshi.

This is the same polywatch / kalshiwatch UX, ported to Manifold's API.

Install

pip install git+https://github.com/creampig666/manifold-watch.git

Or clone:

git clone https://github.com/creampig666/manifold-watch.git
cd manifold-watch && pip install -e .

60-second start

manifold-watch init           # writes config.yaml
$EDITOR config.yaml           # change the slugs to ones you care about
manifold-watch test-alert     # verify your Telegram / Discord wiring
manifold-watch run            # go

Sample config.yaml:

poll_interval_sec: 60

markets:
  - slug: bitcoin-65k-in-june
    name: BTC $65k in June
    threshold_pct: 5
    direction: any         # up | down | any

  - slug: bitcoin-100k-before-end-of-june-202
    name: BTC $100k EOM Jun
    threshold_pct: 5
    direction: any

alerts:
  console: true
  # telegram:
  #   bot_token: ${TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN}   # env vars supported
  #   chat_id: ${TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID}
  # discord:
  #   webhook: https://discord.com/api/webhooks/.../...

The slug is the final URL segment of a Manifold market page (e.g. bitcoin-65k-in-june from https://manifold.markets/...market.../bitcoin-65k-in-june).

Only BINARY markets are supported in v1 (the ones with a single probability). MULTIPLE_CHOICE and free-response markets are skipped with a warning.

How it works

1. Every poll_interval_sec seconds, fetch each configured market from api.manifold.markets/v0/slug/{slug}.
2. Compare probability (0.0 – 1.0) to the value seen last tick.
3. If the change ≥ threshold (and direction matches), build an AlertEvent and dispatch to every enabled channel.
4. Failed channels log the error and don't break the loop.

State is in-memory — restart resets the comparison baseline, no DB.

Manifold + Polymarket + Kalshi = triangulation

Running all three watchers side by side gives you a cheap, real-time view of "where do the smart money, the regulated money, and the play money disagree?" The prediction-market-mcp server exposes all three to Claude with a single find_arb_opportunities query.

Roadmap (PRs welcome)

• MULTIPLE_CHOICE support (per-answer probability tracking)
• Volume-spike alerts (not just price)
• Cross-venue divergence alerts (vs Polymarket / Kalshi)
• State persistence

Tip jar

Free and stays free. If it saved you a refresh tic:

0x17Fb06dE9D5945eaFf6FBBf4c264E505D38182A4   # EVM (ETH / USDC / any EVM L2)

License

MIT. See LICENSE.