marine-compound-stressors-utac

GenesisAeon Package 124 — real compound marine-extreme escalation science, connecting existing GenesisAeon packages via a shared physiological mechanism. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Where this package came from

Surfaced via a six-document multi-AI gap-analysis of the GenesisAeon climate/ecology portfolio (KlimaAktuell/, 2026-09-01), then independently deep-dive verified before building — alongside ocean-acidification-utac (P122), tropical-glacier-ecosystem-rle-utac (P123), assisted-gene-flow-utac (P125), and climate-landuse-biodiversity-nexus-utac (P126). This one is deliberately a relation package: instead of documenting an independent new domain, it connects three existing packages — ocean-deoxygenation-utac (P93), coral-reef-utac (P114), and marine-heatwave-utac (P119) — via a shared, real physiological mechanism.

What's real here

• Wong, Muennich & Gruber (2024, AGU Advances) — real, modeled (1961-2020) escalation of "column-compound extremes": ocean regions where heat, acidity, AND low oxygen co-occur in the same water column (top 300m). These triple compound extremes expanded 39x in spatial extent, now last 3x longer, and became 6x more intense in 2020 versus the early 1960s.
• Deutsch, Ferrel, Seibel, Poertner & Huey (2015, Science) — the Metabolic Index (Phi): a real, established ratio of oxygen supply to resting metabolic oxygen demand, jointly driven by temperature and dissolved oxygen. Projected to fall ~20% globally and ~50% at high latitudes this century — the physiological mechanism connecting this package to P93, P114, and P119.
• Moree, Clarke, Cheung & Froelicher (2023, Biogeosciences) — a real, 47-species study across three marine realms: a species' own vulnerability (not raw environmental stress magnitude) explains 85-88% of the variance in actual habitat loss, strengthening with warming level.

Deliberately not one-sided

is_raw_environmental_stress_the_dominant_predictor() returns False — compound extremes are escalating fast, but which species actually lose habitat depends far more on species-specific physiology than on the raw stress magnitude alone.

Quickstart

pip install marine-compound-stressors-utac

from marine_compound_stressors_utac import (
    spatial_extent_multiplier,
    global_reduction_pct,
    related_package_ids,
    variance_explained_by_vulnerability_pct,
)

print(spatial_extent_multiplier())   # 39.0
print(global_reduction_pct())        # 20.0
print(related_package_ids())         # {"ocean-deoxygenation-utac": 93, ...}
print(variance_explained_by_vulnerability_pct(2.0))  # 87.0

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.