maritime-choke

An interactive model of the macroeconomic risk from maritime-chokepoint trade disruptions. Close any set of the world's 12 major shipping chokepoints, pick a (τ, ρ, ϱ, δ) calibration, solve a short-run production-network model forward, and explore where the value-added loss falls — on an interactive world heat map, by country, and by sector — all in a local browser GUI.

Based on the paper Macroeconomic Risks from Maritime Trade Disruptions (Veetil & Vemmarath). Source & data: https://bitbucket.org/VipinVeetil/chokepoints

Install

pip install maritime-choke

Run

maritime-choke run

That's it. On first launch this downloads the model cache (~90 MB, not shipped in the wheel; published on Zenodo, DOI 10.5281/zenodo.21263267) and then opens the GUI in your browser at http://127.0.0.1:5057. Stop it with Ctrl-C.

To pre-fetch the data on its own (e.g. offline prep), or install it from a local copy:

maritime-choke fetch-data
maritime-choke fetch-data --from-local /path/to/model_cache_2019

Pick chokepoints, set the calibration, hit Run scenario. The defaults are the paper's baseline (τ, ρ, ϱ) = (0.3, −1, −1) with uniform leakage δ = 0.10; the commodity-differentiated energy leakage (δ = 0.45 on B05/B06/C19) is available as a toggle. Results are written to a per-user folder (see maritime-choke where) and shown in the page: world value-added loss, a relatable "scale of the loss" comparison, the world heat map (recolour by any of 50 sectors), and per-country / per-sector drill-downs.

Commands

Data locations can be overridden with MARITIME_CHOKE_DATA (cache root) and MARITIME_CHOKE_RUNS (run outputs). The download URL can be set with MARITIME_CHOKE_DATA_URL.

Data & licensing

The model cache is derived from OECD ICIO (freely downloadable) and the licensed GTAP 10 data base. The raw GTAP data is not redistributed; if you need to rebuild the cache from scratch you must supply your own GTAP licence — see maritime-choke build-data. The shipped map/comparison assets are built from public Natural Earth and World Bank data.

License

MIT (code). Underlying GTAP and OECD ICIO data are governed by their own terms.