masterytrace-cli 0.1.1

Mastery Measurement API and CLI: fits Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) and Item Response Theory (2PL IRT) models to learner response logs and reports per-learner, per-skill mastery estimates.

masterytrace-cli (Python)

Mastery Measurement API and CLI: fits Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) and Item Response Theory (2-parameter logistic IRT) models to learner response logs and reports per-learner, per-skill mastery estimates.

PyPI status: publishing this package as masterytrace-cli is in progress. The first publish attempt hit PyPI's account-level 429 Too many new projects created anti-abuse rate limit -- a platform-side throttle on new package names, unrelated to this code or to any account security issue -- so pip install masterytrace-cli is not live yet. The PyPI version/Python-versions badges above will be restored once the package is live; install from source below in the meantime.

Why this exists

Most tutoring products and AI tutoring agents track raw percent-correct, which conflates a lucky guess with real mastery and never says how confident the estimate actually is. BKT and IRT are the two psychometric models built to fix that, but they live almost entirely as Python-only libraries with no CLI a non-Python tool (or an agent shelling out to a subprocess) can call directly. MasteryTrace is a CLI and library that turns a log of {learnerId, skillId, correct, timestamp} response events into a posterior mastery probability (BKT) and an ability estimate (IRT) per learner per skill. This package is the Python distribution -- a genuine, independent port of the npm package's TypeScript source, not a wrapper around a Node binary.

Install

Once published:

pip install masterytrace-cli

or with uv:

uv add masterytrace-cli

Until then, install from source (this checkout builds and installs identically to how the PyPI package will):

git clone https://github.com/RudrenduPaul/MasteryTrace.git
cd MasteryTrace/python
pip install -e .

This installs a masterytrace console script and the masterytrace importable package. No runtime dependencies beyond the Python standard library -- the forward-recursion and gradient-ascent math in this port are both plain scalar/list arithmetic, exactly what the TypeScript original does with Float64Array and plain numbers, so a numpy/scipy dependency would not simplify anything here.

Honest note on the npm side: the complementary JS/TS distribution (masterytrace-cli on npm) is not yet published -- that is a deliberate, unrelated decision by the maintainer, not a reflection of the npm package's readiness (it passes CI and has a working dist/ build). This PyPI package is independent of that decision and installs and runs on its own.

Quickstart

masterytrace init
masterytrace record events.json
masterytrace score
masterytrace report

init scaffolds a sample events.json (3 learners, 3 skills, several responses each) and a default masterytrace.config.json in the current directory. Real output from that flow:

$ masterytrace init
Created: events.json, masterytrace.config.json
Next: run 'masterytrace record events.json' to load it, then 'masterytrace score'.

$ masterytrace record events.json
Stored 58 event(s) to /path/to/.masterytrace/events.json
(record replaces any previously stored event log; see --help for details.)

$ masterytrace score
Scored 58 event(s) with model(s): both
Wrote /path/to/.masterytrace/scores.json

$ masterytrace report
learner        skill                  model  metric                         value    responses
-------------  ---------------------  -----  -----------------------------  -------  ---------
learner-ada    fractions              bkt    posterior_mastery_probability  0.9994   6
learner-ada    fractions              irt    ability_theta                  0.7349   6
learner-ada    linear-equations       bkt    posterior_mastery_probability  0.9746   7
learner-brook  fractions              bkt    posterior_mastery_probability  0.0612   6
learner-cyrus  reading-comprehension  bkt    posterior_mastery_probability  0.9947   7
...

report also takes --format markdown or --format json, and every command accepts a global --json flag for machine-readable output on stdout, with a real exit code contract (0 success, 1 general/usage error, 2 bad event data) so a script or agent invoking this CLI can branch on the result without parsing text.

Your own event log is a JSON array of {learnerId, skillId, correct, timestamp} objects, or a CSV with header learner_id,skill_id,correct,timestamp. timestamp must be ISO 8601; correct is a boolean (JSON) or true/false/1/0 (CSV), and any other value in a CSV correct cell is rejected as a validation error rather than silently treated as false. Event log files over 100 MB are rejected up front with a clear error.

CLI command reference

Command	Arguments	Options	Does
masterytrace init		--force	Scaffolds a sample events.json and masterytrace.config.json in the current directory. Skips files that already exist unless --force is passed.
masterytrace record <path>	<path>: JSON or CSV event log		Validates an event log and stores it to .masterytrace/events.json. Always replaces any previously stored log.
masterytrace score		--model <bkt|irt|both> (default both)	Fits and scores the stored event log, writing the result to .masterytrace/scores.json.
masterytrace report		--format <table|json|markdown> (default table)	Reads .masterytrace/scores.json and prints a per-learner, per-skill mastery table.

Global option: --json forces machine-readable JSON on stdout for any command, overriding --format on report.

Exit codes: 0 success, 1 general or usage error (bad flag, missing file), 2 validation error (the event log itself is malformed).

Library API

from masterytrace import (
    # Event schema and validation
    ResponseEvent, parse_response_events, EventValidationError,

    # Engine: runs one or both models
    run_scoring, EngineConfig, EngineResult,

    # BKT
    BktModel, BKT_DEFAULT_PARAMS, run_forward_recursion, fit_skill_params_by_grid_search,
    BktParams, BktConfig, BktFittedModel,

    # IRT
    IrtModel, probability_correct,
    IrtItemParams, IrtLearnerResult, IrtConfig, IrtFittedModel,

    # Generic JSON/CSV event log adapter
    generic_adapter, parse_csv, GenericAdapter,
)

events = parse_response_events([
    {"learnerId": "l1", "skillId": "fractions", "correct": True, "timestamp": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z"},
    {"learnerId": "l1", "skillId": "fractions", "correct": False, "timestamp": "2026-01-02T00:00:00Z"},
])

result = run_scoring(events, "both")
# result.reports[0].model == "bkt", result.reports[1].model == "irt"
# each learner's report.learners[i].skills[j].value is the mastery estimate

BktModel and IrtModel both implement the same fit(events) then score(fitted_model) two-step interface, so the engine, and your own code, can treat them interchangeably.

A deliberate naming divergence from the npm package: this Python port's JSON output and dataclass field names are snake_case (learner_id, response_count, item_discrimination) rather than the npm CLI's camelCase (learnerId, responseCount, itemDiscrimination), matching each language's own convention. The data shape -- which fields exist and what they mean -- is identical.

How BKT and IRT work

MasteryTrace implements two independent psychometric models. They answer different questions and produce different kinds of numbers, so masterytrace score --model both runs them side by side rather than picking one.

Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT)

BKT models one learner's mastery of one skill as a hidden binary state (knows it / does not know it yet) and updates a probability of "knows it" after every response, using four parameters: p_init (prior probability the learner already knows the skill), p_transit (probability of learning the skill between one attempt and the next), p_slip (probability of an incorrect answer despite knowing the skill), and p_guess (probability of a correct answer despite not knowing the skill). For each response, the forward recursion first updates the belief given the observed outcome (Bayes' rule), then advances it for possible learning before the next attempt:

after correct:   P(know | obs) = P(know) * (1 - p_slip) / [P(know) * (1 - p_slip) + (1 - P(know)) * p_guess]
after incorrect: P(know | obs) = P(know) * p_slip       / [P(know) * p_slip       + (1 - P(know)) * (1 - p_guess)]
P(know)_next = P(know | obs) + (1 - P(know | obs)) * p_transit

MasteryTrace runs this recursion per learner per skill, in chronological order, and reports the final posterior as that learner's mastery probability for that skill. If you set "bkt": {"fit": true} in masterytrace.config.json, each skill's four parameters are fit from your own data by a coarse grid search (7 x 7 x 5 x 5 candidate combinations) that minimizes squared error between predicted and observed correctness, instead of using the textbook defaults (p_init=0.4, p_transit=0.3, p_slip=0.1, p_guess=0.2). This is the same coarse, dependency-free grid search the TypeScript original implements -- not a full EM/Baum-Welch fit -- ported line-for-line, including its parameter grid values.

Item Response Theory (2PL IRT)

IRT models one continuous learner ability (theta) per learner and two parameters per skill treated as an "item": discrimination (a, how sharply the item separates high- and low-ability learners) and difficulty (b). The probability of a correct response under the 2-parameter logistic model is:

P(correct) = sigmoid(a * (theta - b))

MasteryTrace fits all of these jointly by gradient ascent on the log-likelihood (joint MLE), with a small L2 penalty pulling theta/b toward 0 and a toward 1. That penalty is what keeps the fit finite for a learner or skill with an all-correct or all-incorrect record, where the unregularized likelihood would otherwise be maximized at infinity. Because the 2PL model is only identified up to a shift and scale of theta (shifting theta and b by the same constant, or scaling theta/b while dividing a accordingly, leaves every predicted probability unchanged), the fit re-centers theta to mean 0 and standard deviation 1 after every iteration -- the standard way to pin down a single solution. This port mirrors the TypeScript original's hand-rolled batch gradient ascent line for line (same update rule, same per-iteration gauge fix, same default 500 iterations / 0.5 learning rate / 0.01 regularization), rather than calling into an external optimizer -- there is no scipy.optimize equivalent in play to port to, since the original does not use one either.

A real recovery check

tests/test_irt.py fits the model against a synthetic dataset built from known ground-truth theta/a/b values (4,000 responses across 5 learners and 4 skills, same synthetic setup as the TypeScript suite's own recovery test) and checks that the recovered parameters land close to the true ones once put through the same gauge normalization, within the same 0.3 absolute-error tolerance the TypeScript test uses.

Benchmark

Run locally against synthetic event logs (single core, in-process library calls, no subprocess/CLI startup overhead):

Dataset	Events	BKT fit+score	IRT fit+score (500 iterations)
Small	10,000 (50 learners x 20 skills x 10 responses)	0.05s	2.86s
Large	100,000 (100 learners x 50 skills x 20 responses)	0.09s	14.42s

BKT with grid-search fitting ("bkt": {"fit": true}, a 1,225-combination grid search per skill) on the 10,000-event dataset took 5.20s.

Honest comparison with the TypeScript package: the npm package's own documented benchmark reports the 100,000-event IRT fit at 0.54s (as part of a --model both subprocess run) -- roughly 27x faster than this Python port's 14.42s for the same fit alone. This gap is expected and disclosed, not a porting bug: IRT's gradient-ascent fit is a tight numeric loop, and V8's JIT compiles that loop far more aggressively than CPython's interpreter executes the equivalent Python loop. The fitted values are what this port keeps faithful (see the recovery check above, and the identical-to-4-decimal-places output in the Quickstart section); wall-clock fit time on large datasets is not. See SECURITY.md's "known limitation" section for what this means for very large, untrusted event logs.

CI integration

- uses: actions/checkout@v4
- uses: actions/setup-python@v5
  with:
    python-version: '3.12'
- run: pip install masterytrace-cli
- run: masterytrace init
- run: masterytrace record events.json
- run: masterytrace score --model both
- run: masterytrace report --format json > mastery-report.json

Full walkthrough in docs/integrations/ci.md.

Security

MasteryTrace never eval()s or exec()s anything read from an event log; event data is only ever parsed as JSON/CSV and pattern-matched against the validation schema. The generic adapter refuses symlinked paths and files over 100 MB before reading them, closing the two most likely ways a maliciously crafted event-log path could cause unexpected behavior. Honest note: this project does not currently publish SLSA provenance, Sigstore signatures, or an SBOM, and has no OpenSSF Scorecard badge set up -- none of that infrastructure exists yet for either distribution, so it isn't claimed here. See SECURITY.md for the vulnerability disclosure process.

Contributing

See CONTRIBUTING.md for the full guide, covering both the TypeScript and Python codebases.

cd python
python3 -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -e ".[dev]"
pytest

License

MIT, see LICENSE.