max-pf 2.0.0

Methodology + tooling to compute the 'max points for' metric for 9-cat fantasy basketball leagues.

basketball_max_pf

A Python package for computing a "max points for" metric for a 9-category head-to-head fantasy basketball league. Give it your league platform and a league id and it reconstructs, for every team and every matchup period, the best lineup you could have set — and turns the gap between that and reality into a single interpretable number.

The first supported platform is Fantrax; the design keeps the platform, the player-stat source, and the lineup objective behind seams so other sports or platforms can be added later.

Status: Objective A (opponent-aware category-win maximization) is implemented end-to-end and validated against a finished public league. See Roadmap for what's next, and docs/PROMPT_LOG.md for the full design journal.

The metric

"Points for" in this league are category wins — they only exist relative to an opponent (a tie is a draw, worth 0.5; Fantrax awards ties, it does not wash or split them). So the metric and the benchmark are one decision, not two.

For each matchup period we compute a one-round best response (each side optimizes against the other side's actual lineup — a well-posed fixed target, avoiding the Nash infinite regress):

Quantity	Definition	Reads as
M1	catwins(mine_opt, opp_actual)	your exploitation ceiling vs how they actually played
M2	catwins(mine_opt, their_opt)	the same lineup vs their best counter
Δ	M1 − M2	the opponent-mismanagement dividend — points banked purely because the opponent didn't optimize
Potential	Actual − M1	realized result vs your exploitation ceiling — points left on the table against the opponent's actual play (≤ 0 under hindsight, where M1 ≥ Actual). Shown in every report.
M3	mutual ceiling	the two-player equilibrium value — both managers play optimally against each other (pure- or mixed-strategy). See Roadmap.
Passivity	M1 − M3	the opponent-passivity dividend — how much of M1 relied on the opponent not also optimizing (M1 ≥ M3, so ≥ 0)
Anticipation	M3 − M2	the swing from the decoupled both-optimize estimate (M2, each side aimed at the other's actual) to the true equilibrium (M3) — the value of mutual strategic anticipation (usually positive). Shown with the Nash columns.
Luck	Actual − M3	realized result vs the both-optimal equilibrium — positive ⇒ you scored above the mutual ceiling (opponent passivity, or a hot week); negative ⇒ below it. Shown with the Nash columns.

FG% and FT% are aggregated correctly across a lineup via Σmakes / Σattempts (never by averaging percentages); TO is treated as lower-is-better.

The best-response above is Objective A (the default, --objective catwins): each side optimizes category wins against the other's actual lineup. The optimizer's objective is pluggable, with two opponent-independent alternatives that report catwins as a readout: Objective B (--objective zscore) maximizes total z-score value (scarcity-weighted), and Objective C (--objective raw) maximizes total raw output (scarcity-blind, volume-chasing). Both bench below-replacement (negative-value) players — since value prices in FG%/FT% volume-impact and turnovers, dropping them protects the ratio cats and TO that swing a week (C, whose raw value is almost always positive, benches far less). See Roadmap.

Two methodologies

The optimizer needs a target statline for each player. Where that comes from is the ex-ante vs ex-post fork, and the package implements both:

• A-expected (--methodology expected) — season-to-date per-game rates placed on the days each player's team plays in the period. No clairvoyance; the ceiling is a projection. Rates come from exact basketball-reference box scores (real makes/attempts, no estimator); the Fantrax season-to-date view + position-based FG/FT attempt estimator is the no-extra-dependency fallback when box scores aren't attached.
• A-hindsight (--methodology hindsight) — realized per-day box scores from basketball-reference, joined to the full historical roster. This is the true "best lineup you could have set" ceiling: M1 ≥ Actual always.

Data sources

• Fantrax (via the stable fork of FantraxAPI, vendored under max_pf._vendor — see src/max_pf/_vendor/NOTICE.md) is the source of truth for league structure: rosters (incl. historical daily membership), active-slot config, matchup schedule, and actual results. Public leagues read with only the league id (no credentials).
• basketball-reference supplies exact per-player per-day 9-cat lines with real makes/attempts (FG%/FT% denominators Fantrax never exposes). Disk-cached under .cache/bref/ at a polite request rate; nba_api is a drop-in for local runs where stats.nba.com is reachable.

These sit behind a pluggable StatSource seam, so the optimizer, engine, and report are identical across methodologies.

Install

pip install -e ".[boxscores]"   # add 'dev' for the test suite

The Fantrax adapter works out of the box — its API client is vendored, so there is no VCS/URL dependency (and the package installs cleanly from PyPI). numpy and scipy install automatically (scipy backs the Nash mutual-ceiling equilibrium solver). boxscores pulls beautifulsoup4 for the basketball-reference source; yaml adds YAML login-file support on the CLI (JSON works without it). (Per packaging convention, all version specifiers are >= for compatibility.)

Usage

Programmatic — pass a login dict naming the platform and its details; you get back the season-to-date report rows (render with the render_* helpers):

import max_pf

rows = max_pf.run({"platform": "fantrax", "league_id": "wserh14rmbbpqtcg"})
print(max_pf.render_table(rows))

# Scope to one week or a selection, and pick methodology / objective:
rows = max_pf.run(login, weeks="1-6", methodology="hindsight", objective="zscore")
rows = max_pf.run(login, weeks=6)            # a single week
rows = max_pf.run(login, nash=False)         # drop the M3 / Passivity columns for speed

weeks accepts a single int, a list, or a spec string ("5", "1-6", "1,2,5"); None (the default) is the whole season to date. Box scores back both methodologies by default; pass boxscores=False for the no-extra-dependency Fantrax estimator (A-expected only). The mutual ceiling — the M3 / Passivity columns — is on by default for the full picture; pass nash=False (CLI: --no-nash) to skip the per-team equilibrium search for a quicker M1/M2-only report.

Command line — point it at a JSON or YAML file holding the same login dict:

# league.json: {"platform": "fantrax", "league_id": "wserh14rmbbpqtcg"}
python -m max_pf league.json
python -m max_pf league.yaml --weeks 1-6 --methodology hindsight --out reports/half1

It prints the table and writes <out>.csv and <out>.md.

Findings

Full-season run on the finished public league wserh14rmbbpqtcg ("Mao's Macho Mandarins", 2025-26 NBA, 16 teams × 24 periods), A-expected vs A-hindsight. (See the committed season_report.{txt,csv,md} for the full table; reproduce with python -m max_pf league.json [--methodology hindsight].)

• The ceiling invariant holds under hindsight. M1 ≥ Actual for every team in both reports; A-hindsight makes this a guarantee (realized data), whereas A-expected can't because a team that ran hot beats its projection.
• Projections are optimistic. A-expected M1 > A-hindsight M1 for 15 of 16 teams (smooth per-game rates, no DNPs/variance). The lone exception is Trusting the Process, whose players out-ran their season rates in the games actually played.
• Hindsight isolates real mismanagement. With projection variance stripped, the Actual−M1 gap shrinks in magnitude (band −6.5…−60 vs expected −9.5…−66) — it becomes genuine points left on the table, not forecast noise. (This gap is the realized-ceiling shortfall; it predates the Luck column's redefinition to Actual−M3 and is distinct from it.)
• The dividend Δ tightens to a credible band. The expected spread (7–73) compresses to 11–35 under hindsight. The dbyun89 expected outlier (Δ=73, driven by an implausible expected M2=38) corrects to Δ=35 (M2=71), confirming it was a projection artifact rather than a real opponent giveaway.

Takeaway: A-hindsight is the trustworthy read for both the efficiency ceiling (the Actual−M1 gap) and the dividend (Δ); A-expected is the no-clairvoyance projection useful before results are in.

Roadmap

• Live re-validation against the updated @stable fork — done (results bit-identical to the pre-update fork; see the prompt log).
• Exact A-expected on box scores (estimator replaced as the metric's data source) — done; reproduces the estimator's category-win metric while using real makes/attempts and the real schedule.
• Objective B (z-score / punt-aware weighting) — done. --objective zscore plays each side's opponent-independent max-total-z-value lineup (league-wide per-game population; volume-weighted ratio impact, TO inverted); catwins is a readout. Objective A's category-win M1 is >= Objective B's by construction.
• Objective C (raw statistical output) — done. --objective raw plays each side's max-raw-output lineup (same league-wide population as B, but values players without scarcity weighting, so it chases volume); opponent-independent, catwins as a readout.
• Nash "mutual ceiling" (two-player equilibrium) — done (both stages). engine.nash_ceiling runs iterated best response to the fixed point where each lineup best-responds to the other, yielding the pure-strategy M3 = the both-sides-optimal category split (~80% of periods on the test league). For the ~20% that cycle (no pure equilibrium), a double-oracle LP (engine._double_oracle + nash_lp.solve_zero_sum_game over scipy linprog) resolves M3 as the mixed-strategy minimax value. On by default; --no-nash skips it.

Open items (artifact regeneration, swapping the vendored fantraxapi for a published one, more platforms) are tracked in TODO.md. See docs/PROMPT_LOG.md for the complete design history.