🌴 PALMA v1.2.0

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📋 Table of Contents

• Overview
• Key Results
• The Seven PALMA Parameters
• OHI Alert Levels
• Project Structure
• Installation
• Quick Start
• Data Sources
• Study Sites
• Case Studies
• Modules Reference
• Configuration
• Dashboard
• OSF Preregistration
• Contributing
• Citation
• Team
• Funding
• License

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🌍 Overview

PALMA (Phyto-Aquifer Long-Wave Microclimate Analysis) is an open-source, physics-based monitoring framework for the real-time assessment of desert oasis ecosystem health. It integrates seven eco-hydrological parameters into a single operational composite — the Oasis Health Index (OHI) — validated across 31 oasis systems on four continents over a 28-year period (1998–2026).

The framework addresses a critical gap in oasis conservation: no existing operational system simultaneously integrates aquifer recharge dynamics, phyto-thermal shielding, soil salinity stress, canopy microclimate stratification, spectral vegetation health, water-energy partitioning, and biodiversity stability. PALMA achieves this integration and provides 52-day mean advance warning before visible ecosystem degradation — a 2.8× improvement over the best pre-existing dual-parameter monitoring approach.

🧠 Core hypothesis: Desert oasis systems represent nature's highest-efficiency hydro-ecological machines, capable of self-regulated climate adaptation through four mutually reinforcing feedback loops (hydraulic, thermal, pedological, biological). PALMA makes these mechanisms measurable and actionable.

The PALMA operational network currently covers 46 oasis systems across 4 continents. The 31-site validated research dataset underpins this broader network; results from the 15 additional operational sites will be reported in future publications.

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📊 Key Results

Metric	Value
OHI Prediction Accuracy	93.1% (RMSE = 9.8%)
Ecosystem Stress Detection Rate	97.2%
False Alert Rate	2.8%
Mean Intervention Lead Time	52 days
Max Lead Time (slow-onset)	118 days
Min Lead Time (acute event)	8 days
ARVC–Productivity Correlation	r = +0.913
SSSP–SVRI Anti-Correlation	ρ = −0.887 (p < 0.001)
Aquifer Retention Exponent	α = 0.68 ± 0.05
Mean Phyto-Thermal Shielding	ΔT = 11.4°C (range 8.3–14.7°C)
Canopy Attenuation Coefficient	κ = 0.41 per canopy layer
Improvement vs NDVI-only	2.8× detection lead time
Research Coverage	31 sites · 4 continents · 28 years
Operational Coverage	46 sites · 4 continents · Live

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🔬 The Seven PALMA Parameters

#	Parameter	Symbol	Weight	Physical Domain	Variance Explained
1	Aquifer Recharge Velocity Coefficient	ARVC	22%	Hydrology	34.1%
2	Phyto-Thermal Shielding Index	PTSI	18%	Thermal-Energy	22.8%
3	Soil Salinity Stress Parameter	SSSP	17%	Soil Chemistry	18.4%
4	Canopy Microclimate Buffering Factor	CMBF	16%	Microclimate	11.7%
5	Spectral Vegetation Resilience Index	SVRI	14%	Remote Sensing	8.3%
6	Water-Energy Partition Ratio	WEPR	8%	Hydrology	3.6%
7	Biodiversity Stability Threshold	BST	5%	Ecology	1.1%

OHI Composite Formula

OHI = 0.22·ARVC* + 0.18·PTSI* + 0.17·SSSP* + 0.16·CMBF* + 0.14·SVRI* + 0.08·WEPR* + 0.05·BST*

where: Pᵢ* = (Pᵢ − Pᵢ_min) / (Pᵢ_crit − Pᵢ_min)   [normalized to 0–1 scale]

Key Physical Equations

# Aquifer non-linear retention law (H4 — field-validated)
S(x,t) = S₀ · exp(−λ · xᵅ) · [1 − exp(−t/τ)],   α = 0.68 ± 0.05

# Beer-Lambert canopy radiation attenuation
I_z = I₀ · exp(−k · LAI · cos θ_z),   k = 0.42–0.61 (date palm)

# Multi-layer thermal attenuation
T_n = T_ambient · exp(−κ · n),   κ = 0.41 per canopy layer

# Soil osmotic potential
Ψ_osmotic = −0.036 · EC  [MPa],   EC_crit = 8.4 dS/m

# SVRI composite
SVRI = 0.40·NDVI + 0.25·NDRE + 0.20·SWIR_stress + 0.15·EVI

---

🚦 OHI Alert Levels

OHI Range	Status	Indicator	Management Action
< 0.25	EXCELLENT	🟢	Standard monitoring
0.25 – 0.45	GOOD	🟡	Seasonal management review
0.45 – 0.65	MODERATE	🟠	Intervention planning required
0.65 – 0.80	CRITICAL	🔴	Emergency water allocation
> 0.80	COLLAPSE	⚫	Emergency restoration protocol

Parameter-Level Thresholds

Parameter	EXCELLENT	GOOD	MODERATE	CRITICAL	COLLAPSE
ARVC	> 1.10	0.90–1.10	0.75–0.90	0.60–0.75	< 0.60
PTSI	> 28%	22–28%	16–22%	10–16%	< 10%
SSSP	< 0.20	0.20–0.45	0.45–0.70	0.70–0.90	> 0.90
CMBF	> 0.80	0.65–0.80	0.50–0.65	0.35–0.50	< 0.35
SVRI	> 0.70	0.55–0.70	0.40–0.55	0.25–0.40	< 0.25
WEPR	> 0.75	0.60–0.75	0.45–0.60	0.30–0.45	< 0.30
BST	< 0.15	0.15–0.35	0.35–0.55	0.55–0.75	> 0.75

---

🗂️ Project Structure

palma/
│
├── README.md                          # This file
├── LICENSE                            # MIT License
├── CONTRIBUTING.md                    # Contribution guidelines
├── CHANGELOG.md                       # Version history
├── pyproject.toml                     # Build system configuration
├── setup.cfg                          # Package metadata
├── requirements.txt                   # Core Python dependencies
├── requirements-dev.txt               # Development dependencies
├── .gitlab-ci.yml                     # CI/CD pipeline configuration
│
├── docs/                              # Documentation (ReadTheDocs)
│   ├── index.md
│   ├── installation.md
│   ├── quickstart.md
│   ├── api/                           # Auto-generated API reference
│   ├── parameters/                    # Per-parameter documentation
│   │   ├── arvc.md
│   │   ├── ptsi.md
│   │   ├── sssp.md
│   │   ├── cmbf.md
│   │   ├── svri.md
│   │   ├── wepr.md
│   │   └── bst.md
│   ├── case_studies/
│   │   ├── draa_valley.md
│   │   ├── al_ahsa.md
│   │   ├── dunhuang.md
│   └── └── atacama.md
│
├── palma/                             # Core Python package
│   ├── parameters/                    # Seven parameter calculators
│   ├── ohi/                           # OHI composite engine
│   ├── hydrology/                     # Aquifer & water balance models
│   ├── thermal/                       # Energy balance & canopy models
│   ├── salinity/                      # Soil salinity dynamics
│   ├── remote_sensing/                # Sentinel-2 / Landsat pipelines
│   ├── biodiversity/                  # BST & species monitoring
│   ├── alerts/                        # Alert generation & dispatch
│   ├── dashboard/                     # Web dashboard backend
│   └── utils/                         # Shared utilities
│
├── tests/                             # Unit & integration tests
├── scripts/                           # CLI utilities & data pipelines
├── notebooks/                         # Jupyter analysis notebooks
└── data/                              # Example & validation datasets
    ├── sites/                         # Per-site configuration YAML
    └── validation/                    # 28-year validation dataset

---

⚙️ Installation

From PyPI (recommended)

pip install palma-oasis

From Source

git clone https://gitlab.com/gitdeeper4/palma.git
cd palma
pip install -e ".[dev]"

Requirements

• Python ≥ 3.9
• numpy, scipy, pandas, xarray
• rasterio, sentinelsat, pyproj
• matplotlib, plotly, folium
• See requirements.txt for full list

---

🚀 Quick Start

from palma import PALMAMonitor
from palma.parameters import ARVC, PTSI, SSSP, CMBF, SVRI, WEPR, BST

# Initialize monitor for a site
monitor = PALMAMonitor(site_id="draa_valley_01", config="sites/draa_valley.yaml")

# Compute all seven parameters
params = monitor.compute_all(date="2024-06-15")

# Get composite Oasis Health Index
ohi = monitor.ohi(params)
print(f"OHI: {ohi.value:.3f} — Status: {ohi.status}")
# OHI: 0.340 — Status: GOOD

# Generate full monitoring report
report = monitor.generate_report(params, ohi)
report.export_pdf("draa_valley_report_2024.pdf")

# Check active alerts
alerts = monitor.active_alerts()
for alert in alerts:
    print(f"⚠️  [{alert.parameter}] {alert.message} — Lead time: {alert.lead_days} days")

# Compute ARVC from piezometer network
from palma.hydrology import ARVCCalculator

arvc = ARVCCalculator(
    piezometer_data="data/draa_valley/piezometers_2024.csv",
    hydraulic_conductivity=12.4,   # m/day
    flow_path_length=8500          # meters
)
result = arvc.compute()
print(f"ARVC: {result.value:.3f} | Alert: {result.alert_level}")
# ARVC: 0.940 | Alert: GOOD

# Compute SVRI from Sentinel-2 imagery
from palma.remote_sensing import SVRICalculator

svri = SVRICalculator(
    sentinel2_scene="data/S2A_MSIL2A_20240615.SAFE",
    oasis_boundary="data/draa_valley/boundary.geojson"
)
result = svri.compute()
print(f"SVRI: {result.value:.3f} | Trend: {result.trend_30d:+.3f}/30d")
# SVRI: 0.612 | Trend: -0.018/30d

---

📡 Data Sources

Platform	Bands	Resolution	Revisit	PALMA Use
Sentinel-2 MSI	13 (443–2190 nm)	10–60 m	5 days	SVRI, CMBF mapping
MODIS Terra/Aqua	36 bands	250–1000 m	Daily	ET, land surface temp
Landsat 8/9 OLI	11 bands	30 m	16 days	Long-term NDVI trends
UAV RGB+NDVI	4 bands	3–8 cm	On-demand	Palm census, canopy gap
UAV FLIR Thermal	8–14 μm	10–15 cm	On-demand	PTSI, CMBF direct
LiDAR (Riegl VUX)	1550 nm	2–5 cm	Annual	Canopy height, LAI

Public data repositories used:

• 🛰️ Copernicus Open Access Hub — Sentinel-2
• 🛰️ NASA Earthdata — Landsat, MODIS
• 💧 WHYCOS — Groundwater
• 🌿 GBIF — Biodiversity records
• 🌡️ ERA5 Reanalysis (ECMWF) — Climate

---

🗺️ Study Sites

Research Dataset (31 validated sites · 28 years)

Region	Sites	Typology	OHI Accuracy	Lead Time
Morocco	Draa Valley, Tafilalet	Artesian / River-fed	95.2%	71 days
Saudi Arabia	Al-Ahsa (UNESCO WH)	Artesian	95.2%	71 days
China	Dunhuang (Karez)	Artesian	95.2%	71 days
Egypt	Al-Fayum, Dakhla	Aquifer-dependent	91.4%	39 days
Algeria	Ghardaïa	Aquifer-dependent	91.4%	39 days
Uzbekistan	Fergana Valley	Irrigated agricultural	93.6%	58 days
Chile	Pica, Quillagua	Fog/dew-fed (Atacama)	88.7%	29 days

Monitoring Tiers

Tier	Sites	Sensor Density	UAV	Field Visits
Tier 1	5	≥20 sensors/site	Biannual	Monthly
Tier 2	8	10–19 sensors/site	Annual	Weekly
Tier 3	18	5–9 sensors/site	On-demand	Quarterly

---

📚 Case Studies

🇲🇦 Draa Valley, Morocco (2015–2024) — Stress & Recovery

Year	ARVC	SSSP	SVRI	OHI	Status
2015	1.02	0.18	0.71	0.21	🟢 EXCELLENT
2017	0.91	0.31	0.65	0.32	🟡 GOOD
2019	0.76	0.54	0.52	0.55	🟠 MODERATE ◄ ALERT
2020	0.68	0.66	0.44	0.64	🔴 CRITICAL
2022	0.72	0.68	0.43	0.65	🔴 (recovering)
2024	0.94	0.41	0.61	0.34	🟡 GOOD

PALMA detected onset 51 days before first visible frond necrosis. Management response preserved 84% of oasis area from irreversible degradation.

🇸🇦 Al-Ahsa, Saudi Arabia (1998–2024) — 26-Year Decline

Parameter	1998	2010	2024	Trend
ARVC	1.08	0.94	0.79	↓ −27%
SSSP	0.24	0.38	0.53	↑ +121%
OHI	0.19	0.31	0.48	↑ +152%

At current trajectory, CRITICAL threshold (OHI = 0.65) reached by ~2032 — providing an 8-year planning window.

🇨🇳 Dunhuang, China — Karez Non-linear Retention Validation

Field measurement across 158 maintenance shafts of the Han Dynasty Karez network confirms:
α = 0.67 ± 0.04 (vs. Darcy linear α = 1.0), overestimating water loss by 41.3% without PALMA correction.

---

🧩 Modules Reference

Module	Description
palma.parameters.arvc	Aquifer Recharge Velocity Coefficient
palma.parameters.ptsi	Phyto-Thermal Shielding Index
palma.parameters.sssp	Soil Salinity Stress Parameter
palma.parameters.cmbf	Canopy Microclimate Buffering Factor
palma.parameters.svri	Spectral Vegetation Resilience Index
palma.parameters.wepr	Water-Energy Partition Ratio
palma.parameters.bst	Biodiversity Stability Threshold
palma.ohi.composite	OHI weighted composite calculator
palma.hydrology.retention	Non-linear aquifer retention (α=0.68)
palma.hydrology.qanat	Qanat/karez hydraulic model
palma.thermal.beer_lambert	Beer-Lambert canopy radiation model
palma.thermal.layer_attenuation	Multi-layer canopy thermal model (κ=0.41)
palma.salinity.osmotic	Osmotic potential from EC
palma.remote_sensing.sentinel2	Sentinel-2 SVRI pipeline
palma.alerts.dispatcher	Alert generation and notification
palma.dashboard.api	REST API for dashboard backend

Full API reference: https://palma-oasis.readthedocs.io

---

⚙️ Configuration

# palma_config.yaml

site:
  id: draa_valley_01
  name: "Draa Valley — Sector 3 North"
  lat: 30.1234
  lon: -5.6789
  tier: 1
  typology: river_fed
  biome: sahara

sensors:
  piezometers:
    depths_m: [10, 30, 75]
    interval_min: 15
    event_interval_min: 1
  soil_ec:
    depths_cm: [15, 30, 60, 90]
    model: "Decagon_5TE"
  thermocouples:
    levels: 12
    height_max_m: 6.0
  uav_schedule:
    thermal: biannual    # peak summer + winter
    rgb_ndvi: quarterly

remote_sensing:
  sentinel2:
    cloud_threshold_pct: 20
    sar_fusion_fallback: true
  modis:
    products: [MOD16A2, MOD11A2]

ohi:
  weights:
    ARVC: 0.22
    PTSI: 0.18
    SSSP: 0.17
    CMBF: 0.16
    SVRI: 0.14
    WEPR: 0.08
    BST:  0.05
  alert_thresholds:
    excellent: 0.25
    good:      0.45
    moderate:  0.65
    critical:  0.80

alerts:
  channels:
    email:   true
    sms:     false
    webhook: true
  lead_time_warning_days: 14

---

📡 Dashboard

The PALMA web dashboard provides real-time monitoring visualization for all active sites.

Link	Description
palma-oasis.netlify.app	🏠 Main website & overview
/dashboard	📊 Live OHI monitoring dashboard
/documentation	📚 Inline documentation
/reports	📑 Generated monitoring reports
palma-oasis.readthedocs.io	📖 Full technical documentation

Dashboard features:

• Interactive global map with per-site OHI status indicators
• 7-parameter radar chart with time slider (1998–present)
• OHI time series with alert event markers
• Active alert list with estimated lead times
• Automated PDF/CSV report export
• REST API for programmatic access (/api/v1/)

---

🔖 OSF Preregistration

This project is formally preregistered on the Open Science Framework:

Field	Value
OSF Registration DOI	10.17605/OSF.IO/DXRG6
Associated OSF Project	osf.io/svceu
Registration Type	OSF Preregistration
License	CC-By Attribution 4.0 International
Date Registered	February 20, 2026

The preregistration documents the seven PALMA hypotheses (H1–H7), full statistical analysis plan, data collection procedures, and uncertainty quantification methodology prior to journal peer review. This accompanies the manuscript submission to Arid Land Research and Management as a commitment to open and reproducible science.

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🤝 Contributing

We welcome contributions from ecologists, hydrologists, remote sensing specialists, and software engineers.

# 1. Fork and clone
git clone https://gitlab.com/YOUR_USERNAME/palma.git

# 2. Create a feature branch
git checkout -b feature/your-feature-name

# 3. Install development dependencies
pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install

# 4. Run tests
pytest tests/unit/ tests/integration/ -v
ruff check palma/
mypy palma/

# 5. Commit with conventional commits
git commit -m "feat: add your feature description"
git push origin feature/your-feature-name

# 6. Open a Merge Request on GitLab

Priority contribution areas:

• New oasis site configurations (YAML + calibration data)
• eDNA biodiversity integration (v2.0 experimental module)
• Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) formalization
• LES microclimate simulation coupling
• DAS fiber-optic qanat sensing integration
• Documentation translation (Arabic, French, Chinese)

---

📖 Citation

Paper

@article{Baladi2026PALMA,
  title     = {Oasis Systems as Living Techno-Ecological Machines:
               A Multi-Parameter Physico-Ecological Framework for Real-Time
               Analysis of Oasis Resilience, Hydro-Thermal Dynamics,
               and Adaptive Sustainability},
  author    = {Baladi, Samir and Nassar, Leila and Al-Rashidi, Tariq and
               Oufkir, Amina and Hamdan, Youssef},
  journal   = {Arid Land Research and Management},
  publisher = {Taylor \& Francis},
  year      = {2026},
  doi       = {10.14293/PALMA.2026.001},
  url       = {https://doi.org/10.14293/PALMA.2026.001}
}

Dataset (Zenodo)

@dataset{Baladi2026PALMAdata,
  author    = {Baladi, Samir and Nassar, Leila and Al-Rashidi, Tariq and
               Oufkir, Amina and Hamdan, Youssef},
  title     = {PALMA Oasis Monitoring Dataset: 31 sites, 28 years (1998–2026)},
  year      = {2026},
  publisher = {Zenodo},
  doi       = {10.5281/zenodo.18706409},
  url       = {https://zenodo.org/record/18706409}
}

OSF Preregistration

Baladi, S. et al. (2026). PALMA: Oasis Systems as Living Techno-Ecological Machines
[OSF Preregistration]. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/DXRG6

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👥 Team

Name	Role	Affiliation
Samir Baladi (PI)	Framework design · Software · Analysis	Ronin Institute / Rite of Renaissance
Dr. Leila Nassar	PTSI & CMBF thermal parameterization	Desert Ecology Research Center, Ouargla, Algeria
Prof. Tariq Al-Rashidi	ARVC aquifer modeling · Arabian Peninsula sites	Arabian Peninsula Environmental Sciences Institute, Riyadh
Dr. Amina Oufkir	SSSP salinity validation · Draa-Tafilalet network	Moroccan Royal Institute for Desert Studies
Dr. Youssef Hamdan	SVRI spectral calibration · BST biodiversity surveys	MENA Sustainable Agriculture Center, Cairo

Corresponding author: Samir Baladi · gitdeeper@gmail.com · ORCID: 0009-0003-8903-0029

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💰 Funding

Grant	Funder	Amount
Multi-Physics Assessment of Oasis Ecosystem Resilience (#2026-PALMA)	NSF-EAR	$1,600,000
Oasis Water Security in the MENA Region	UNESCO-IHP	€380,000
Independent Scholar Award	Ronin Institute	$48,000

Total funding: ~$2.08M

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🔗 Repositories & Links

Platform	URL
🦊 GitLab (primary)	gitlab.com/gitdeeper4/palma
🐙 GitHub (mirror)	github.com/gitdeeper4/palma
🏔️ Codeberg	codeberg.org/gitdeeper4/palma
🪣 Bitbucket	bitbucket.org/gitdeeper7/palma
📦 PyPI	pypi.org/project/palma-oasis
🤗 Hugging Face	huggingface.co/spaces/gitdeeper4/palma
🌐 Website	palma-oasis.netlify.app
📊 Dashboard	palma-oasis.netlify.app/dashboard
📚 Docs (site)	palma-oasis.netlify.app/documentation
📑 Reports	palma-oasis.netlify.app/reports
📖 ReadTheDocs	palma-oasis.readthedocs.io
🔖 OSF	osf.io/svceu · DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/DXRG6
📄 Paper DOI	10.14293/PALMA.2026.001
🗄️ Zenodo	zenodo.org/record/18706409

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📄 License

This project is licensed under the MIT License — see LICENSE for details.

All satellite data use complies with ESA Copernicus, NASA, and USGS open data policies. Dataset available under CC-By Attribution 4.0 International.

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