permafrost-utac

GenesisAeon Package 60 — real ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0 data and Schuur et al. 2022 carbon-stock science. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• ESA CCI Permafrost v5.0: real satellite dataset (University of Oslo/CEDA, DOI 10.5285/a6fbedd8ee5b472c8e84e55f746c1704), 1997-2023, 1 km resolution, MAGT/active-layer-thickness/extent.
• Schuur et al. 2022 (Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 47, 343-371): permafrost carbon stock 1460-1600 GtC, and modeled emission ranges under 2C/4C warming by 2100.
• An explicit structural note that permafrost thaw is not a classical bistable tipping element (IPCC AR6) — a gradual, self-amplifying feedback with regional abrupt events (thermokarst), not a single global bifurcation point.

Why no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge

Unlike several other GenesisAeon packages, this one deliberately does not propose a Gamma/CREP hypothesis for permafrost. Climate-topic packages in this ecosystem default to presenting real data on its own terms, without a speculative framework bridge, unless one clearly and genuinely fits — see DISCLAIMER.md for the full reasoning.

Quickstart

pip install permafrost-utac
# for real ESA CCI NetCDF loading:
pip install "permafrost-utac[data]"

from permafrost_utac import SyntheticPermafrostData, carbon_stock_gt

print(f"Permafrost carbon stock: ~{carbon_stock_gt():.0f} GtC")

series = SyntheticPermafrostData.generate_fraction_series()
for year, fraction in list(series.items())[:3]:
    print(year, fraction)

Development

pip install -e ".[dev,data]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.