polymarket-ai-market-suggestor 0.2.0

AI agent that analyzes trends and suggests new Polymarket prediction markets in real time.

PolySuggest – Polymarket Precision Terminal

The most precise decision-support terminal for Polymarket traders – combining real-time market data, AI-driven edge detection, probability calibration, position management, and execution capabilities.

Built for institutional & advanced retail traders who need:

• Edge discovery – Model vs market price mismatches
• Position management – Sizing, correlation, portfolio risk
• Execution infrastructure – Limit orders, laddering, liquidation risk
• Research workflows – Trend → hypothesis → execution in minutes

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Why PolySuggest?

Feature	Description
Real-time Edge Detection	Compares trend sentiment to market probability; flags mismatches >20%
Calibrated Probabilities	Bayesian inference with credible intervals (e.g., 0.55 ± 0.08)
Expected Value Ranking	Ranks markets by risk-adjusted EV × liquidity × confidence
Portfolio Risk Management	Correlation analysis, VaR, liquidation warnings, hedge suggestions
Trend-aware Research	NewsAPI + Twitter + CoinGecko sentiment signals
Overlap Protection	Gamma API checks ensure suggestions are novel
LLM-powered Reasoning	GPT-4o produces resolution rules, YES/NO framing, and rationale
Local Knowledge Base	SQLite persistence for bundles, calibration tracking, and analytics

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Architecture

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                         DATA LAYER                                  │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  TrendScanner          │  MarketDataPoller      │  PolymarketClient │
│  (NewsAPI, Twitter,    │  (Gamma API 1s poll)   │  (Existing markets│
│   CoinGecko)           │  Order book, OHLCV     │   overlap checks) │
└──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬────────┘
           │                        │                        │
           ▼                        ▼                        ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                       INTELLIGENCE LAYER                            │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  EdgeDetector          │  InferenceEngine       │  SuggestionEngine │
│  (Sentiment vs price   │  (Bayesian prob +      │  (LangChain +     │
│   divergence)          │   credible intervals)  │   GPT-4o)         │
└──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬────────┘
           │                        │                        │
           ▼                        ▼                        ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                       EXECUTION LAYER                               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  PortfolioTracker      │  RiskManager           │  OrderManager     │
│  (Positions, P&L,      │  (VaR, correlation,    │  (Limit orders,   │
│   exposure)            │   hedge suggestions)   │   laddering)      │
└──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬─────────────┴──────────┬────────┘
           │                        │                        │
           ▼                        ▼                        ▼
┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│                        OUTPUT LAYER                                 │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  CLI (Typer + Rich)    │  Storage (SQLite)      │  Reporting        │
│  suggest, edges,       │  Bundles, positions,   │  JSON, Markdown,  │
│  calibrate, trade      │  orders, calibrations  │  dashboards       │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Core Modules

Module	Purpose
trend_scanner.py	NewsAPI, Twitter, CoinGecko trends with VADER sentiment
polymarket_client.py	Gamma API client for markets, prices, order book
market_data.py	Real-time polling + caching (1s updates)
edge_detector.py	Sentiment vs market price divergence scoring
inference_engine.py	Bayesian probability estimation with PyMC
ai.py	LangChain + GPT-4o suggestion generation
orchestrator.py	End-to-end pipeline coordination
portfolio_tracker.py	Position management & P&L tracking
risk_manager.py	VaR, correlation analysis, liquidation risk
calibration.py	Historical accuracy metrics (Brier score, ROI)
storage.py	SQLite persistence for all entities
cli.py	Typer commands: suggest, edges, calibrate, trade

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Quick Start

git clone https://github.com/BeachTexture/PolySuggest.git
cd PolySuggest/polymarket-ai-market-suggestor
python -m venv .venv && source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -r requirements.txt
cp ENV.sample .env
# Add your API keys to .env

Generate Market Suggestions

polysuggest suggest "AI regulation" --keywords "AI,regulation" --count 4 \
  --markdown reports/ai.md --output reports/ai.json

Detect Edges (Coming Soon)

polysuggest edges --top 10              # Top edges by EV
polysuggest watch --threshold 0.25      # Real-time edge alerts

Portfolio Commands (Coming Soon)

polysuggest positions --summary         # Current holdings & P&L
polysuggest calibrate                   # Model accuracy report
polysuggest trade place --market <id> --outcome YES --size 100 --limit 0.45

History & Analytics

polysuggest summarize                   # History of suggestion runs
polysuggest show 3                      # Detailed view for run #3
polysuggest insights                    # Aggregated stats

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Configuration

Copy ENV.sample to .env and configure:

Variable	Description
OPENAI_API_KEY	GPT-4o API key
OPENAI_MODEL	Model override (default: gpt-4o)
POLYMARKET_API_BASE	Gamma API endpoint
NEWS_API_KEY	NewsAPI key for trend scanning
TWITTER_BEARER_TOKEN	Twitter v2 bearer token
POLYSUGGEST_DATA_DIR	SQLite storage directory
CHROMA_PERSIST_PATH	Vector store path for RAG

No API key? Falls back to deterministic heuristic mode for offline testing.

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Roadmap

Phase 1: Market Intelligence Hub (MVP)

• Trend scanning (NewsAPI, Twitter, CoinGecko)
• LLM-powered market suggestions
• Overlap protection via Gamma API
• Real-time market data pipeline (1s polling)
• Edge detection (sentiment vs price divergence)
• Calibration tracking (Brier score, accuracy)

Phase 2: Edge Engine

• Bayesian probability estimation (PyMC)
• Expected value ranking
• Base rate calculation from historical data

Phase 3: Portfolio & Execution

• Position tracking & P&L
• Correlation analysis
• Order management (paper trading → live)
• Backtesting engine

Phase 4: Research & ML

• Semantic search on market history (RAG)
• Multi-model ensemble (GPT-4o + SVM + LSTM)
• Automated daily research reports

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Development

pip install -r requirements.txt
pytest                                  # Run all tests
pytest tests/test_storage.py -v         # Single test file
ruff check src/                         # Lint
black src/ tests/                       # Format

Run CLI without installing:

python -m polysuggest.cli suggest "crypto regulation"

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Target Metrics

Metric	Target
Price update latency	<1 second
Edge detection accuracy	>70%
Calibration (Brier score)	<0.20
Research velocity	Trend → execution <15 min

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License

Apache-2.0 – see LICENSE