predikt 0.1.2

Autonomous AI trading agent for Polymarket prediction markets. Sports, crypto, news, and general market pipelines.

predikt

Autonomous AI trading agent for Polymarket prediction markets. Trade sports, crypto, news, and general markets — autonomously or with a single command.

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Install

pip install predikt

Quick Start

1. Set up your keys — create a .env file:

   POLYGON_WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=<your-polygon-private-key>
   POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS=<your-funder-address>
   OPENAI_API_KEY=<your-openai-key>
   

   Optional for extended features:

   NEWSAPI_API_KEY=<your-newsapi-key>        # news-enriched analysis
   TAVILY_API_KEY=<your-tavily-key>          # web search context
   SPORTS_DATA_API_KEY=<your-sportsdata-key> # live sports stats
   SPORTS_ODDS_API_KEY=<your-odds-key>       # live odds feeds
   

2. Run it:

   predikt run-autonomous-trader
   

   That's it. The agent scans Polymarket events, runs LLM-powered superforecaster analysis, and executes trades when it finds mispriced markets.

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Pipelines

predikt ships with five autonomous trading pipelines:

Pipeline	Command	What it does
General	predikt run-autonomous-trader	Scans all Polymarket events, filters candidates via RAG, runs two-stage LLM analysis, executes best trades
Continuous	predikt run-continuous	High-speed loop — trades trending/breaking events every N seconds
Sports	predikt-sports	Live sports trading via WebSocket — pre-game positioning + in-game score-change reactions
Crypto	predikt run-crypto	Real-time crypto price feeds + LLM analysis for BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP markets
BTC Arbitrage	predikt run-crypto-arbitrage	Pure algorithmic — no LLM. Dual Binance + Chainlink price feeds, 15-second intervals

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CLI Reference

Autonomous Trading

# Default: scan all markets, pick the best trade
predikt run-autonomous-trader

# Scope to a single event
predikt run-autonomous-trader --event-url "https://polymarket.com/event/..."

# Include news context in analysis
predikt run-autonomous-trader --include-news --news-limit 10 --news-days 3

# Exclude sports markets
predikt run-autonomous-trader --exclude-sports

Analyze a Specific Event

# Run prediction pipeline without executing (respects EXECUTE_TRADES env var)
predikt analyze-event-url "https://polymarket.com/event/..."

# With news enrichment
predikt analyze-event-url "https://polymarket.com/event/..." --news-limit 10

Continuous Trading

# Trade every 30 seconds, $100 session budget
predikt run-continuous

# Custom interval and budget
predikt run-continuous --interval 60 --session-budget 250

# With cooldown between trades on the same market
predikt run-continuous --cooldown 600 --volatility-threshold 0.08

Sports Trading

# Start the live sports pipeline
predikt-sports

# Connects to Polymarket sports WebSocket, streams live game state,
# executes pre-game + in-game trades autonomously.

Sports pipeline features:

• Pre-game: Two-stage LLM analysis (blind probability → market-aware value detection)
• In-game: Fast-path (cached probability, no LLM) and slow-path (full re-analysis) on score changes
• All sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, CFB, CBB, soccer, esports, tennis
• Budget coordination: Cross-process filelock with configurable per-sport caps

Key environment variables:

SPORTS_BUDGET_FRACTION="0.30"         # fraction of wallet for sports
SPORTS_EXECUTE_TRADES="false"         # sports-specific trade toggle
SPORTS_CAP_NFL="0.4"                  # per-sport budget caps
SPORTS_CAP_NBA="0.3"
SPORTS_CAP_MLB="0.15"
SPORTS_CAP_NHL="0.15"
SPORTS_INGAME_COOLDOWN_SECONDS="30"   # per-game cooldown
SPORTS_MAX_GAME_EXPOSURE_USD="50.0"   # max USD per game

Crypto Trading

# Trade crypto price markets with live WebSocket feeds
predikt run-crypto

# Custom symbols and edge threshold
predikt run-crypto --symbols "BTC,ETH,SOL" --min-edge 0.08 --session-budget 200

# BTC 5-minute interval arbitrage (no LLM, pure price momentum)
predikt run-crypto-arbitrage --session-budget 50 --min-edge 0.10

Market Exploration

# Browse markets sorted by spread
predikt get-all-markets --limit 10 --sort-by spread

# Browse events sorted by number of markets
predikt get-all-events --limit 10

# Search news for market context
predikt get-relevant-news "bitcoin ETF" --limit 5 --days 3

# Check wallet and USDC balance
predikt diagnose-usdc-balance

LLM & Forecasting

# Ask the superforecaster about a specific market
predikt ask-superforecaster "US Election" "Will Biden win?" "yes"

# General LLM query
predikt ask-llm "What factors affect prediction market liquidity?"

# LLM query with live Polymarket context
predikt ask-polymarket-llm "What are the best crypto markets to trade right now?"

RAG (Local Market Database)

# Build a local vector database of Polymarket events
predikt create-local-markets-rag ./local_db_events

# Query the local database
predikt query-local-markets-rag ./local_db_events "upcoming elections"

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Configuration

All configuration is via environment variables. Create a .env file in the project root — predikt loads it automatically.

Core Settings

Variable	Default	Description
POLYGON_WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY	—	Your Polygon wallet private key
POLYMARKET_FUNDER_ADDRESS	—	Polymarket funder address
OPENAI_API_KEY	—	OpenAI API key for LLM analysis
OPENAI_MODEL	gpt-5-mini	Model to use for analysis
EXECUTE_TRADES	false	Master trade execution toggle — set true for live trading
APP_LOG_LEVEL	INFO	Logging verbosity

Trade Parameters

Variable	Default	Description
TRADE_TOTAL_BUDGET_FRACTION	0.30	Fraction of wallet to use per session
TRADE_MAX_PER_MARKET_FRACTION	0.10	Max fraction per single market
TRADE_CANDIDATE_COUNT	5	Number of candidates to evaluate
TRADE_DIVERSITY_MODE	soft_quota	Diversification strategy
TRADE_MIN_MARKET_VOLUME	10000	Minimum market volume filter
TRADE_MIN_MARKET_LIQUIDITY	5000	Minimum market liquidity filter

Continuous Mode

Variable	Default	Description
CONTINUOUS_INTERVAL_SECONDS	30	Seconds between trade cycles
CONTINUOUS_SESSION_BUDGET	100	Session budget in USDC
CONTINUOUS_COOLDOWN_SECONDS	300	Per-market cooldown
CONTINUOUS_VOLATILITY_THRESHOLD	0.05	Minimum volatility to trade

Crypto Mode

Variable	Default	Description
CRYPTO_SYMBOLS	BTC,ETH,SOL,XRP	Symbols to trade
CRYPTO_MIN_EDGE	0.05	Minimum edge to execute
ARB_MIN_EDGE	0.10	Minimum edge for BTC arbitrage
ARB_PRICE_FEED_TOLERANCE	0.001	Cross-feed price tolerance

See .env.example for the full list of 60+ configuration variables.

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Architecture

predikt
├── agents/
│   ├── application/          # trading pipelines and strategies
│   │   ├── trade.py          # general autonomous trader
│   │   ├── continuous.py     # high-speed continuous loop
│   │   ├── crypto.py         # crypto price market strategy
│   │   ├── btc_arbitrage.py  # pure algorithmic BTC arb
│   │   ├── sports_trader.py  # pre-game sports trading
│   │   ├── ingame_trader.py  # live in-game trading engine
│   │   ├── executor.py       # two-stage LLM analysis engine
│   │   ├── budget.py         # cross-process budget coordinator
│   │   └── ...
│   ├── connectors/           # external data sources
│   │   ├── sports_ws.py      # Polymarket sports WebSocket
│   │   ├── sports_data.py    # external sports stats API
│   │   ├── chroma.py         # ChromaDB RAG connector
│   │   ├── news.py           # NewsAPI connector
│   │   └── ...
│   ├── polymarket/           # Polymarket API clients
│   │   ├── polymarket.py     # CLOB order execution
│   │   └── gamma.py          # Gamma API market discovery
│   ├── utils/
│   └── sports.py             # sports pipeline entry point
└── scripts/
    └── python/
        └── cli.py            # CLI entry point (typer)

How It Works

1. Discovery — Scans Polymarket events via Gamma API, filters by category, volume, liquidity
2. Context — Enriches candidates with news (NewsAPI), web search (Tavily), and RAG (ChromaDB)
3. Analysis — Two-stage LLM superforecaster: blind probability estimate → market-aware value detection
4. Execution — Places orders via Polymarket CLOB API with confidence-weighted budget allocation
5. Coordination — Cross-process budget management with filelock for multi-pipeline operation

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Safety

• Dry-run by default — EXECUTE_TRADES=false out of the box. No trades execute until you explicitly enable it.
• Paper mode first — Test with small budgets before going live.
• Budget caps — Per-market, per-sport, and per-session limits prevent runaway spending.
• Cross-process safety — Filelock-based budget coordination when running multiple pipelines.
• Minimum order guards — Configurable floor on order size and market quality filters.

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Build from Source

git clone https://github.com/vahagn-madatyan/predikt.git
cd predikt
python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate
pip install -e ".[dev]"

Run tests:

pytest tests/ -q

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Attribution

This project was forked from Polymarket's agents repository, extended with autonomous sports, crypto, and continuous trading pipelines.

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Disclaimer

This software is for educational and research purposes. Trading on prediction markets involves risk — you can lose money. No trading system is guaranteed to be profitable. Always start with paper/dry-run mode. The authors are not responsible for any financial losses incurred through use of this software.

This code is free and publicly available under the MIT License.