prophet-batch

Fit and forecast many Prophet models at once, on top of the stock prophet package (≥ 1.5):

• fit_many fits thousands of series together with batched MAP solvers instead of one Stan run per series. The result for each series is an ordinary Prophet model whose log posterior is at least as high as Stan's.
• predict_many forecasts them in parallel with per-series seeds: a forecast depends only on (seed, series id), not on worker count, order, or which other series are predicted.
• cross_validation_many runs stock-format cross-validation for many models at once.
• predict is Prophet.predict with a per-call random generator and faster history-interval modes.

Measured against stock Prophet 1.5.0 on the same 10 workers (fit + forecast, six public datasets, 38,905 series): the same holdout accuracy, and 1.5× (short series) to 26.5× (M4 Daily) faster with full history intervals. Guarantees and how they are tested: docs/guarantees.md. Runnable use cases with accuracy and speed against stock Prophet on macOS, Windows, Linux (Docker), Cloud Run and Spark (Dataproc): prophet-batch-examples.

Status: alpha (0.1.0): the public API (below) is stable in intent but may still change before 1.0.

Install

pip install prophet-batch

Requires Python ≥ 3.10 and prophet>=1.5 (the stock PyPI wheel; no Stan build needed).

Quick start

Data is in long format: one row per (series, date), with a series-id column, ds and y.

import numpy as np
import pandas as pd

def make_series(n, seed):
    rng = np.random.default_rng(seed)
    t = np.arange(n)
    y = 10 + 0.02 * t + 2 * np.sin(2 * np.pi * t / 7) + rng.normal(0, 0.5, n)
    return pd.DataFrame({"ds": pd.date_range("2022-01-01", periods=n), "y": y})

df = pd.concat([make_series(400, i).assign(unique_id=f"store_{i}") for i in range(8)], ignore_index=True)

from prophet_batch import fit_many, predict_many

models = fit_many(df, n_jobs=-1)          # {series id: fitted Prophet}
forecasts = predict_many(models, periods=28, seed=42, n_jobs=-1)
forecasts["store_0"][["ds", "yhat", "yhat_lower", "yhat_upper"]].tail()

n_jobs=-1 uses every CPU available to the process (in a container: its CPU limit, which os.cpu_count() ignores); results are bit-identical for any n_jobs. Each model is a normal Prophet object, so plot, plot_components, model_to_json, cross_validation and the rest of the stock API work on it.

Configuring the models

Keyword arguments go to Prophet() for every series. For per-series configuration (holidays, extra regressors, custom seasonalities), pass a function that returns a fresh, unfitted model for a series id:

from prophet import Prophet

def make_model(series_id):
    m = Prophet(seasonality_mode="multiplicative" if series_id.endswith("7") else "additive")
    m.add_country_holidays("US")
    return m

models = fit_many(df, make_model=make_model)

With n_jobs != 1, make_model must be picklable (a module-level function, not a lambda). Series whose models come out identical and that have the same dates and regressor values (e.g. one holiday calendar and a regressor shared by all series) are preprocessed once, as without make_model; the results are the same either way.

Other options: fit_kwargs (arguments for Prophet.fit, as a dict or a per-series function, used by series that are fit by Stan), and on_error="skip" (leave out series that Prophet can't fit, e.g. fewer than 2 non-NaN rows, with a warning, instead of raising).

What is batched

Linear and flat growth are fit by the batched solvers, with any mix of additive and multiplicative components (seasonalities, holidays, extra regressors, conditional seasonalities). Additive models are solved exactly (the MAP is a convex problem); multiplicative ones to a verified stationary point. Everything else (logistic growth, mcmc_samples > 0, regressors with regressor_predictor) and any series the solver can't handle is fit by Prophet.fit per series, with exactly the result of calling it directly.

Forecasts and history intervals

predict_many(models, periods=..., ...) builds each future with make_future_dataframe; pass futures={series id: DataFrame} instead for regressors or logistic caps. history_uncertainty controls the intervals on history rows, which are most of the cost when the history is included:

yhat is the same in every mode. The future rows' intervals are equally valid draws in each mode, but not the same numbers between True and the other two: with True the series' random stream is first used for the history rows.

forecasts = predict_many(models, periods=28, seed=42, history_uncertainty="analytic")

Prophet's forecast frame has three columns per component (each holiday and regressor included), so with many holidays and series it gets large. columns= keeps only what you need; the workers drop the rest before sending results back, which saves memory and time (M5, 1,437 series with 30 holidays: 2.3 GB → 0.1 GB):

forecasts = predict_many(models, periods=28, seed=42, columns=["ds", "yhat", "yhat_lower", "yhat_upper"])

Single models

prophet_batch.predict adds the same options to one model, with a numpy Generator for the draws. With the default arguments it is bit-identical to model.predict(df).

from prophet_batch import predict

model = models["store_0"]
fc = predict(model, model.make_future_dataframe(28), rng=np.random.default_rng(0),
             history_uncertainty="analytic")

Cross-validation

Same arguments and output columns as prophet.diagnostics.cross_validation, for many models:

from prophet.diagnostics import performance_metrics
from prophet_batch import cross_validation_many

cvs = cross_validation_many(models, horizon="14 days", period="60 days", initial="250 days", seed=1)
metrics = {sid: performance_metrics(cv) for sid, cv in cvs.items()}

as_frame=True returns one DataFrame with a unique_id column.

Reproducibility

predict_many(seed=...) and cross_validation_many(seed=...) give every series its own generator, derived from (seed, series id) with numpy.random.SeedSequence, so results do not depend on n_jobs, order or batch composition. Without a seed, a fresh one is drawn, logged, and stored in each forecast's attrs["seed"].

API stability

The public API is what prophet_batch exports at the top level: fit_many, predict_many, cross_validation_many, predict and series_rng. Everything else (the solvers and helpers in prophet_batch.batch, such as solve_map or log_posterior, and the private modules) is internal and may change between releases.

Limitations

• Logistic growth, MCMC and regressor predictors are fit by Stan (correct, but not faster than stock).
• Prediction intervals are about 0.04–0.6 percentage points narrower than stock's on public data: the exact MAP fits a little tighter than Stan's L-BFGS, which stops short of the optimum.
• With few, short series, process start-up dominates: use n_jobs=1 there.
• Windows speed (known issue in 0.1.0): results are correct on Windows (CI runs the full suite there), but on a first Windows laptop (Intel Core i7-1260P, 16 logical CPUs) fit_many scaled poorly: 3–4× faster than a 16-process stock Prophet pool on 1,437 M5 items, against 9–10× on macOS, and slower with 16 workers than with 1 for a model with regressors. The cause is being investigated (BLAS threading is the main suspect); a fix is planned for 0.1.1.

More: docs/guarantees.md (what is guaranteed and how it is tested) and docs/migration.md (from a stock loop or process pool).

License

MIT. Contains code derived from Prophet (Copyright (c) Facebook, Inc. and its affiliates).