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pyalloq-simulation

Institutional Monte Carlo scenario generation, missing-history imputation, and Meucci Entropy Pooling for the PyAlloq SDK.

Capabilities

  • Missing Data Imputation (FactorBackcastImputer): Back-casts missing history for recent IPOs and fills interior gaps in return space via PCA factor regression and idiosyncratic volatility matching.
  • Scenario Generators (BaseScenarioGenerator):
    • GaussianGenerator: Multivariate Normal baseline with Ledoit-Wolf shrinkage and Cholesky factorization.
    • PCAFactorGenerator: Latent PCA factor simulation for high-dimensional universes.
    • FHSGenerator: Filtered Historical Simulation (GARCH(1,1) de-volatization + synchronous residual bootstrapping).
    • GARCHEVTCopulaGenerator: AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) filtration + Extreme Value Theory (Generalized Pareto Distribution tails) + Student-$t$ Copula.
    • GMMRegimeGenerator: $K$-regime Gaussian Mixture Model with empirical Markov transition matrix.
  • Memory & Batching: Default float32 tensor precision and generate_batches(n_paths, horizon, batch_size) streaming.
  • Meucci Entropy Pooling (ViewBuilder, EntropyPooler): First-moment (AbsoluteView, RelativeView) and second-moment (VolatilityView, CovarianceView) market views solved via Lagrange dual optimization.
  • Path-Dependent Risk Evaluation (ScenarioEvaluator): Posterior probability-weighted Expected Return, Volatility, Sharpe Ratio, 95% CVaR, View-Adjusted Maximum Drawdown (view_adjusted_mdd), and Probability of Ruin (probability_of_ruin).

Metadata

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