river-gauge-shipping-utac

GenesisAeon Package 130 -- Rhine / Western-Europe low-water inland shipping impacts (container throughput, Kaub gauge, cascade mechanics, IfW Kiel GDP note). Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge -- see DISCLAIMER.md.

Complements glacier-buffer-utac (P99) with the economic / logistics side of low-water events. Own package, not a P99 extension -- cross-reference only; do not rederive P99 hydrology here.

For a plain-language German companion, see WHITEPAPER.md.

What's real here

• Bedoya-Maya et al. (2024, Transportation Research Part D) -- DOI 10.1016/j.trd.2024.104190: -0.2% throughput per day under critical water level; -5.9% when disruption > 24 days; vulnerability doubled since 2018; without resilience 7-20% projected annual container throughput loss by 2050.
• Vinke et al. (2022, Climate Risk Management) -- DOI 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100400: cascade / network-effect model (Rhine 2018). Encoded as mechanics note, not a single threshold.
• Kaub 78 cm -- operational consensus (not single-study); severe events: load factor 10-30% of nominal.
• IfW Kiel (2018) -- ~0.4% GDP on annual view; industrial production ~1% (peak 1.5%) at 30 days below 78 cm Kaub (kielinstitut.de).

Explicitly omitted: unconfirmed Bundesbank 0.2pp Q3-2018 figure.

Quickstart

pip install river-gauge-shipping-utac

from river_gauge_shipping_utac import (
    CRITICAL_WATER_LEVEL_CM,
    AVG_THROUGHPUT_LOSS_PCT_PER_DAY_UNDER_CRITICAL,
    is_relationship_generalizable_beyond_rhine,
    does_vulnerability_increase_over_time,
    is_kaub_threshold_from_single_study,
)

print(CRITICAL_WATER_LEVEL_CM)  # 78
print(AVG_THROUGHPUT_LOSS_PCT_PER_DAY_UNDER_CRITICAL)  # -0.2
print(is_relationship_generalizable_beyond_rhine())  # False
print(does_vulnerability_increase_over_time())  # True
print(is_kaub_threshold_from_single_study())  # False

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.