Sanction Simulator

Interactive sanction simulator based on the paper “Political Power in International Trade” by Ashwin Bhattathiripad and Vipin P. Veetil. The package bundles

• the estimation model (power_trade_estimation.py: two-sided RAS rerouting + CES capacity-rationing equilibrium on the world input–output network),
• the pre-built benchmark network from the OECD ICIO 2025 release (year 2022), and
• a point-and-click GUI for composing and solving arbitrary sanction scenarios.

Install (macOS / Linux / Windows)

python3 -m pip install sanction-simulator

Python ≥ 3.10. Dependencies (numpy, pandas, streamlit, plotly) are installed automatically.

Run the GUI

sanction-simulator

This opens the simulator in your browser (default port 8601; override with SANCTION_SIM_PORT). Pick the sanctioning coalition, the targeted countries, the instrument (full embargo / export ban / import ban), an optional sector scope, and the structural parameters (τ, δ, ρ, ϱ), then press Solve scenario. A typical scenario solves in one or two seconds and reports output losses by country and sector, a world map, and solver diagnostics.

Programmatic use

import sys
import sanction_simulator as ss
sys.path.insert(0, ss._PKG_DIR)
import power_trade_estimation as pte

bench = pte.Benchmark(ss.data_dir(), cache=ss.bench_cache())
iu, ic = bench.cidx["USA"], bench.cidx["CHN"]
sb = pte.ScenarioBatch(bench, [pte.bilateral_legs(iu, ic)],
                       tau=0.30, delta=0.10)
sb.balance()
res = sb.solve(rho=-1.0)
loss = bench.s - res["s_omega"][0]          # gross-output loss, USD mn

Full pipeline

sanction-simulator-estimate exposes the paper's estimation stages (--stage validate|baseline|sensitivity|all). The packaged data contains the pre-built benchmark cache only; a from-scratch rebuild additionally needs the raw OECD ICIO file 2022_SML.csv placed in the --datadir directory.

Data note

The benchmark cache (bench_cache.npz) is a lossless, compressed copy of the network constructed from the OECD Inter-Country Input–Output tables, 2025 release, reference year 2022 (80 countries × 50 sectors). Source: OECD Inter-Country Input–Output Database, https://www.oecd.org/en/data/datasets/inter-country-input-output-tables.html. The OECD is the source of the underlying data; use of the derived benchmark network is subject to the OECD's terms and conditions.

License

The code is released under the MIT License (see LICENSE). Copyright (c) 2026 Ashwin Bhattathiripad and Vipin P. Veetil. If you use this package in academic work, please cite the paper Political Power in International Trade.