seismic-utac

Package 23 — Earthquake Seismicity & Gutenberg-Richter SOC GenesisAeon · MOR Research Collective

Models global earthquake seismicity as a UTAC (Unified Threshold-Activated Criticality) system, grounding the Gutenberg-Richter power law as a CREP-mediated Self-Organized Critical (SOC) phenomenon. Calibrated against the IRIS 50-year global catalog (154,383 earthquakes).

Bak, P. & Tang, C. (1989). Earthquakes as a self-organized critical phenomenon. J. Geophys. Res. 94(B11), 15,635. DOI: 10.1029/JB094iB11p15635

CREP Criticality Position

Γ_seismic ≈ 0.200   (b-value = 1.7, crustal SOC regime)

Spectrum:  Qubit(0.050) — Cellular(0.090) — Seismic(0.200) — AMOC/Neural(0.251) — BTW(0.296)

The b-value decrease before major earthquakes maps directly onto rising Γ — a falsifiable UTAC precursor signal.

Install

pip install seismic-utac

For development:

pip install -e ".[dev]"
# or
uv sync --dev

Quickstart

from seismic_utac import SeismicUTAC

system = SeismicUTAC()
result = system.run_cycle(duration_years=50.0)

print(f"Γ = {result['gamma']:.4f}")          # ≈ 0.200
print(f"b-value = {result['b_value']:.3f}")  # ≈ 1.7
print(f"Phase events: {len(result['phase_events'])}")

CLI

# Run full 50-year UTAC cycle
seismic-utac run --catalog iris --region global --duration 50

# Monitor b-value and phase transition risk
seismic-utac b-value-monitor --region southern-california

# Forecast probability of M≥7.5 within 365 days
seismic-utac predict --magnitude 7.5 --horizon 365

# Run benchmark suite against Bak & Tang (1989) targets
seismic-utac benchmark

Diamond Interface

SeismicUTAC implements the full GenesisAeon Diamond contract:

Also: b_value_current(), predict_major_event_probability(magnitude, horizon_days)

Physical Mapping

Benchmark Targets

uv run pytest tests/test_seismic_utac.py -v

Repository Structure

seismic-utac/
├── src/seismic_utac/
│   ├── system.py              # SeismicUTAC — Diamond interface
│   ├── gutenberg_richter.py   # GR law, b-value MLE (Aki 1965)
│   ├── strain_accumulation.py # Crustal strain energy → UTAC H(t)
│   ├── b_value_monitor.py     # Sliding-window b-value tracker
│   ├── entropy_seismic.py     # Permutation entropy → CREP P
│   ├── crep_seismic.py        # Seismic CREP tensor
│   ├── aftershock.py          # Omori-Utsu aftershock model
│   ├── catalog_loader.py      # Synthetic + YAML catalog loader
│   ├── benchmark.py           # Bak & Tang (1989) benchmark suite
│   ├── cli.py                 # Typer CLI
│   └── constants.py           # SIGMA=2.2, B_SOC_TYPICAL=1.7, …
├── data/
│   ├── iris_catalog_summary.yaml
│   └── bak1989_targets.yaml
└── tests/
    └── test_seismic_utac.py   # 17 tests, all passing

References

• Bak & Tang (1989). DOI: 10.1029/JB094iB11p15635
• Al-Kindy & Main (2003). DOI: 10.1029/2002JB002230
• da Silva et al. (2021). DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110634

Citation

Also includes the diamond-setup scaffold tool used to generate this project. Run diamond scaffold <name> to create new GenesisAeon packages.

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