serenity-chokepoint 0.4.0

Find AI supply-chain bottleneck ('chokepoint') stocks — a transparent, auditable reproduction of Serenity's framework. Not financial advice.

🪢 Serenity Chokepoint Engine

Don't buy the tuna. Buy the shiso leaf.

An auditable, open-source reproduction of the AI supply-chain "Chokepoint Theory" — the framework behind one of the most talked-about retail traders of the decade.

It reverse-engineers the AI-compute supply chain, hunts the physically irreplaceable bottlenecks the entire buildout must flow through, and builds a high-conviction stock pool that maximises return under an as-certain-as-possible win rate.

pipx install serenity-chokepoint
serenity pool

中文说明 · Reproduce / Replace data · How it works · Performance · Critique it

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⚠️ Read this first

This is an educational reproduction of a publicly described investment framework, built for people to study and tear apart.

• 🧪 The bundled data are illustrative placeholder estimates, hand-assembled to demonstrate the method — not a live signal. Replace them with verifiable data (see REPRODUCE.md) before trusting any number.
• 💸 Nothing here is financial advice. Small-cap, illiquid, highly volatile names. You can lose everything.
• 🙅 Not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) in any way. This is an independent reproduction of ideas they shared publicly.
• 📈 The performance below comes from backtests with real, disclosed limitations (survivorship, a roaring AI bull market). We show you the unflattering parts on purpose.

If that's fine with you — welcome. Let's hunt chokepoints.

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🍣 The idea in 30 seconds

In a piece of sushi, the tuna belly is the expensive part — but the shiso leaf is the one thing you cannot skip. The same is true of the AI boom.

Everyone owns the "tuna": NVIDIA, TSMC, the hyperscalers. The alpha hides in the "shiso leaf" — the tiny, overlooked, near-monopoly suppliers buried 4–7 layers deep in the supply chain, whose failure would halt the entire buildout.

Just as ~20% of the world's oil must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the photonics buildout must pass through a handful of indium-phosphide substrate, laser, and feedstock suppliers. Control the chokepoint, control the buildout.

A chokepoint is a node that is, all at once:

🔒 Concentrated	🧱 Irreplaceable	⏳ Qualification-gated	🕵️ Undiscovered
Top 1–3 suppliers > 70% share	Material-science moat, no second source	12–24 month design-in cycle	Small cap, low institutional ownership

When demand grows at 50–100% CAGR and the choke can't, the screw gets repriced violently. That repricing is what the strategy is built to catch — early, and only when the win is structurally likely.

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⚙️ The strategy, as one loop

   DEEP RESEARCH                CERTAINTY GATE                 RETURN MAXIMISER
 ┌────────────────┐         ┌──────────────────────┐       ┌────────────────────┐
 │ map the AI      │         │ keep only names whose │       │ among survivors,    │
 │ supply chain,   │  ────▶  │ win is structurally   │ ────▶ │ concentrate capital │
 │ score every     │         │ certain:              │       │ by win × upside so  │
 │ node's          │         │ • survives red-team   │       │ the pool MAXIMISES  │
 │ chokepoint-ness │         │ • win prob ≥ 60%      │       │ return GIVEN the    │
 │ + asymmetry     │         │ • chokepoint ≥ 60     │       │ win-rate holds      │
 │                 │         │ • P(EV>0) ≥ 60%       │       │ → CORE / BUILD /    │
 └────────────────┘         └──────────────────────┘       │   STARTER tiers     │
                                                            └────────────────────┘

It is not a multi-factor trading system. It does one thing: deep research → a high-conviction pool → maximise return under a win-rate condition.

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🚀 Quickstart

# install once, get a global `serenity` command (like any CLI tool)
pipx install serenity-chokepoint        # or:  uvx serenity-chokepoint pool
                                         # or:  pip install serenity-chokepoint

serenity pool                            # 👈 the curated high-conviction pool
serenity pool --live                     # tighten it with live Yahoo Finance data
serenity thesis AXTI                     # 🎯 one-page full thesis: moat × timing × risk
serenity growth AXTI                     # the ramp-inflection (timing) lens
serenity scan                            # 🛰️ momentum ranking radar (NOT the method)
serenity scan --tickers NVDA,AXTI,SIVE   # scan your own watchlist
serenity validate AXTI                   # deep-dive one ticker (score + red-team)
serenity supply-chain                    # the 7-layer map + structural chokepoints
serenity backtest --oos                  # the honest out-of-sample test
serenity --help

📋 Sample serenity pool output (click to expand)

SERENITY CHOKEPOINT — HIGH-CONVICTION STOCK POOL (deep research -> certainty gate -> max return)
Certainty gate: survives red-team + win_prob>=60% + chokepoint>=60 + P(EV>0)>=60%
Pool size: 8 names.   Objective: maximise return GIVEN the win-rate condition.

── TIER 1: CORE (highest conviction) ───────────────────────────────────────────
  SIVE   Sivers Semiconductors   L3 Laser / light source
         weight 23.2% | win 68%  P(EV>0) 100% | upside 5.0x  exp.return +253% | choke 74 resil 0.69
         thesis : CW laser light-source chokepoint for co-packaged optics; 2027-28 ramp; AVGO/MRVL buyout optionality.
         catalyst: UNDISCOVERED, MOAT:LONG-QUAL, M&A-TARGET | top risk: dilution / cash burn before ramp
  AXTI   AXT Inc.                L4 Substrate (InP/GaAs)
         weight 17.4% | win 72%  P(EV>0) 100% | upside 3.8x  exp.return +191% | choke 83 resil 0.77
         thesis : Western InP-substrate chokepoint ('Strait of Hormuz' of photonics); vertically integrated feedstock.
         catalyst: CONCENTRATED(>70%), MOAT:LONG-QUAL | top risk: China gallium/indium export controls
── TIER 2: BUILD ──  POET · AEHR · VNP
── TIER 3: STARTER / watch ──  IQE · INPACT · SOI

POOL BLEND: weighted win-prob 67%   weighted expected return +153% (per $1, on the modelled horizon)

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🛰️ Radar vs. deep dive — two different tools

	serenity scan (radar)	serenity pool (deep dive)
Universe	broad (~60 names, or your --tickers)	a fixed, hand-researched watchlist
Signal	live, price-only ramp factor (12-1 momentum + re-rating gap + small-cap tilt)	full structural Chokepoint Score + asymmetric odds + red-team
Changes?	yes — daily, with the market; surfaces NEW names	stable; a high-conviction book shouldn't churn
Use it to	find candidates worth researching	commit to the ones that survived research

So the workflow is: scan to spot movement → thesis/validate/growth to do the real analysis → pool to size. serenity thesis <T> is the one-page synthesis — it fuses the three lenses (structural moat × growth timing × red-team risk) into a single verdict (🎯 PRIME SETUP, ⏳ POSITIONED EARLY, ⛔ FAILS VALIDATION, …).

 # TICKER   SCORE  MOM(12-1)  RAMP    MKT$B   note
 1 AXTI     100.0      ...x     🔥      6.7   curated
 6 ICHR      90.7      ...x     🔥      2.5   NEW find   ← radar surfaced it; go research it

📈 Growth analysis — the ramp-inflection lens (serenity growth)

This is the analytical core applied to growth, and it is not a generic "high revenue growth = good" screen. Serenity's thesis monetises one specific moment — the volume-ramp inflection, when a qualified chokepoint supplier goes from sampling to mass production and the economics flip: revenue accelerates, gross margin turns up, and operating losses collapse. Bought before the Street re-rates it, that inflection is the asymmetric trade.

serenity growth AXTI       # one ticker, full ramp breakdown (live, free data)
serenity growth --pool     # ramp-stage table across the curated chokepoint pool

SERENITY GROWTH ANALYSIS — AXTI (ramp-inflection lens)
  GROWTH SCORE : 72.1/100      stage: 🚀 EARLY RAMP (margin inflection)
     revenue acceleration     0.50  ██████████
     margin inflection        1.00  ████████████████████   ← gross margin +36pts, op margin +47pts
     revenue growth (YoY)     0.78  ████████████████
     reinvestment (R&D)       0.75  ███████████████
     growth-adj. valuation    0.51  ██████████

The Growth Score weights, in order of Serenity-relevance: acceleration (25), margin inflection (25), revenue growth (22), reinvestment/R&D (13), and a venture-style growth-adjusted valuation (15) — not trailing P/S.

🔑 Two scores, one thesis. The chokepoint score is the structural bet (the moat); the growth score is the timing (has the ramp started?). A pre-ramp chokepoint deliberately scores LOW on growth — that's the point: you buy the moat before the ramp shows up in the numbers, and use growth to watch the inflection arrive. High chokepoint + turning-up growth = the ideal Serenity setup.

🛰️ A momentum ranking, clearly labelled (serenity scan)

serenity scan ranks a broad universe by vol-adjusted 3m/6m/12m momentum. It is a convenience radar, explicitly NOT the method — momentum only tells you what already moved. Use it to spot movement, then do the real work with growth + validate.

🧠 How it works

Every node in the supply chain gets two things: a Chokepoint Score (is it a real bottleneck?) and an asymmetric-payoff estimate (is it a high-odds bet?).

1. Chokepoint Score (0–100) — six weighted pillars

Pillar	Weight	What it captures
Supply concentration	22	Top-3 share; > 70% is the hard gate, then curves up non-linearly
Irreplaceability	22	Material-science moat × qualification-cycle length
Demand/supply gap	16	AI end-market CAGR running ahead of the node's capacity CAGR
Qualification barrier	16	Already designed-in + long cert cycle = competitors years behind
Information asymmetry	14	Small cap + low institutional ownership + thin coverage (the alpha)
Catalyst / optionality	10	Insider buying, short interest, M&A premium, vertical integration

2. Asymmetric payoff

The structural moat maps to a win probability; the ramp multiple (venture-style, not trailing P/S) maps to upside; dilution + valuation + tech-path + liquidity risk map to downside. Out come the odds ratio, expected value, and a deep-fractional-Kelly position size.

3. The supply-chain graph & demand model

A NetworkX dependency graph independently corroborates which nodes are chokepoints topologically (high betweenness / reverse-PageRank), and a simple compute-×-optical-intensity model sizes the demand-vs-capacity shortfall.

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📊 Does it actually work?

Here's where most strategy repos show you a hockey stick and hide the caveats. We built an engine to attack our own picks, and we publish the unflattering findings. Read all three.

1️⃣ In-sample portfolio backtest (trailing 2y, real prices)

Book	Return	CAGR	Sharpe
Chokepoint survivors (Kelly)	+1506%	58%	1.77
Equal-weight universe	+1140%	51%	1.67
🐟 NVDA (the "tuna")	+91%	11%	0.53
QQQ	+65%	9%	0.74

2️⃣ Event study — does "qualification → ramp" actually re-rate?

Using a +12% single-day gap as a proxy for a qualification/ramp event: the average 60-day forward return is +58.7% vs a +28.4% baseline → +30.3% edge (227 events, 63% hit-rate). Re-rating events continue, they don't mean-revert. ✅

3️⃣ The honest one: genuine out-of-sample walk-forward

Broad fixed universe (winners and laggards), point-in-time price-only signal, train/test split, no look-ahead.

Window	Strategy CAGR	SOXX CAGR	Verdict
In-sample (2019–23)	22.2%	25.2%	🔴 slightly LAGS — proof it wasn't curve-fit
Out-of-sample (2023–26)	143.9%	54.1%	🟢 beats the semiconductor sector itself by +90 pts

The train window underperforming is the point: the out-of-sample edge can't be from tuning on the test data. And the benchmark is SOXX — so this is selection within semis beating owning all semis, not just sector beta.

🔬 ...and we stress-test that, too

• 2022 bear: the factor fell −30.9% vs SOXX −35.1% — a +4.2pt cushion, no momentum crash. 🟢
• Regime-dependent: it lagged in the 2020/2021/2023 bull years; the edge is concentrated in 2024–26, exactly the late volume-ramp phase the thesis is about. 🟡
• Rolling 24 folds: beats SOXX in 62% of windows — but median Sharpe 1.01 vs SOXX 1.27: higher return, higher volatility, edge in the right tail. It's a high-odds book, not a low-risk one. 🟡

Bottom line: the alpha looks real but regime-dependent and volatile — consistent with a concentrated, high-conviction, ride-the-ramp strategy. We'd rather you know that going in.

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🥷 We attack our own thesis (the part we're proudest of)

The framework's own rule is: before you size up, hand the thesis to the harshest Devil's Advocate. So the engine ships with an adversarial validator:

serenity screen --live --adversarial

• 9 deterministic attack vectors — valuation already priced-in, supply elasticity / second-source, CPO-vs-pluggables tech-path, "already discovered", dilution, microcap liquidity, customer concentration, geopolitics — each scored with a severity and a rebuttal.
• Monte-Carlo on the payoff assumptions → P(EV > 0).
• Survival gate: only names that survive the red-team make the pool.
• Optional multi-LLM red-team hook (GPT / Claude / Gemini), off by default.

On live data this correctly kills names the naive score would keep — e.g. a name trading at ~1677× EV/Sales, or one that's already 90%+ institutionally owned.

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🧩 Architecture

serenity_chokepoint/
├── chokepoint_data.py   # curated universe of supply-chain nodes + attributes
├── scoring.py           # Chokepoint Score (0–100) + asymmetric-odds engine
├── supply_chain.py      # NetworkX dependency graph + topological chokepoints
├── demand_model.py      # AI-compute → optical-interconnect demand projection
├── adversarial.py       # Step-3 red/blue team + Monte-Carlo (+ optional LLMs)
├── live_data.py         # Yahoo Finance refresh of market-derived fields
├── backtest.py          # in-sample portfolio + factor + event study
├── oos_backtest.py      # out-of-sample walk-forward + regime/rolling robustness
├── pool.py              # THE PRODUCT: certainty-gated, return-maximising pool
└── cli.py               # the `serenity` command

Runs fully offline with zero API keys; --live is the only thing that touches the network.

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🔁 Reproduce & replace the data

The bundled numbers are placeholders. REPRODUCE.md gives a per-field source table — which fields auto-refresh from market data and which need real research (top-3 share, qualification cycle, ramp multiple) — plus how to reproduce every chart and run the offline test suite:

pip install serenity-chokepoint[dev]
pytest -q          # 16 network-free tests pinning the engine's invariants

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🤺 Come prove us wrong

This project exists to be critiqued. The most valuable contributions:

1. Data — overturn a node's chokepoint rating with real top-3 share / qualification facts.
2. Scoring — argue a pillar weight or curve is wrong.
3. Odds model — challenge the win-prob mapping, the up/down assumptions, the Kelly cap.
4. Backtest — find residual look-ahead/survivorship, or contribute a cleaner universe that includes delisted names.
5. Attack vectors — add a missing one (patent cliff, quantified customer concentration…).

Open an issue or a PR. Run pytest -q first. Be ruthless — that's the whole point.

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🙏 Acknowledgments

• Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) — for sharing the Chokepoint Theory publicly. This is an independent reproduction; all errors are ours, not theirs.
• virattt/ai-hedge-fund (MIT) — the project this engine was first prototyped inside.
• The photonics / CPO research community (TrendForce, SemiAnalysis, Yole, and the public write-ups cited in REPRODUCE.md).

📄 License

MIT — see LICENSE. Use it, fork it, break it. Just don't blame us for your trades.

⭐ If this made you think differently about the AI supply chain, star it — and then try to break it.