simplefunctions-ai 0.1.0

Calibrated world model for AI agents. Real-time probabilities from 9,706 prediction markets.

SimpleFunctions

Calibrated world model for AI agents. Real-time probabilities from 9,706 prediction markets.

Your agent doesn't know what's happening in the world. Web search returns narratives ("tensions remain elevated"). SimpleFunctions returns calibrated numbers backed by real money: Iran invasion: 53% (+5c, $225K volume).

Install

pip install simplefunctions

Quick Start

from simplefunctions import world, delta, scan

# What's happening in the world right now? (~800 tokens, markdown)
print(world())

# What changed in the last hour? (~30-50 tokens)
print(delta(since="1h"))

# Search prediction markets
results = scan("fed rate cut")
for m in results["markets"][:5]:
    print(f"{m['title']}: {m['price']}c")

No API key needed. Free. Data from Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) and Polymarket, updated every 15 minutes.

Give Your Agent World Awareness

System prompt injection (simplest)

from simplefunctions import world
import anthropic

client = anthropic.Anthropic()
state = world()

response = client.messages.create(
    model="claude-sonnet-4-20250514",
    max_tokens=1024,
    system=f"You are a research analyst.\n\n{state}",
    messages=[{"role": "user", "content": "What's the recession probability?"}],
)
# Agent cites "33%" instead of hallucinating

Tool definitions (one line per framework)

from simplefunctions.integrations import openai_tools, anthropic_tools, mistral_tools

# OpenAI Agents SDK / Responses API
tools = openai_tools()

# Anthropic Claude
tools = anthropic_tools()

# Mistral
tools = mistral_tools()

Tool execution (framework-agnostic)

from simplefunctions.integrations import execute_tool

# Works with any framework's tool call output
result = execute_tool("get_world_state", {"focus": "energy,geopolitics"})
result = execute_tool("search_prediction_markets", {"query": "iran oil"})
result = execute_tool("get_world_delta", {"since": "1h"})

API Reference

World State

Function	Description	Tokens
world()	Full world state — 6 topics, anchor contracts, edges, divergences	~800
world(focus="energy,geo")	Same budget, concentrated on fewer topics	~800
delta(since="1h")	Only what changed since timestamp	~30-50

Market Data

Function	Description
scan("iran oil")	Cross-venue market search with relevance ranking
market("KXRECESSION-26DEC31")	Single market profile with optional orderbook
contagion(window="6h")	Cross-market anomaly detection
index()	SF Prediction Market Index (uncertainty, geo risk, momentum)
query("fed rate cut?")	LLM-synthesized answer with live data
edges()	Top mispriced markets across all theses
briefing(topic="iran")	Daily topic briefing with X sentiment
diff(topic="energy")	Market derivatives over time
changes(type="price_move")	Recent price moves, new contracts, settlements
context()	Global market intelligence snapshot

Focused World State

# Default: 4 contracts per topic across 6 topics
world()

# Focused: 10 contracts per topic across 2 topics
world(focus="geopolitics,energy")

# All topics: geopolitics, economy, energy, elections, crypto, tech

Incremental Updates

# Full state at session start
state = world()

# Periodic refresh — only changes (~30-50 tokens)
changes = delta(since="1h")
changes = delta(since="6h")
changes = delta(since="2026-04-02T08:00:00Z")

MCP Server

For Claude Code, Cursor, or any MCP-compatible agent:

claude mcp add simplefunctions --url https://simplefunctions.dev/api/mcp/mcp

40 tools, no API key needed for public endpoints.

Why Prediction Markets?

A prediction market price of 53c on "Iran invasion" encodes the aggregate judgment of everyone with money at risk on that question. Get it wrong, lose money. This punishment mechanism produces calibrated probabilities more reliable than any analyst report, news summary, or LLM reasoning.

	Web Search	News API	SimpleFunctions
Output	Narrative text	Headlines	Calibrated probabilities
Token cost	2,000-5,000	500-1,000	~800 for everything
Latency	2-5 seconds	500ms	~200ms (cached)
Calibration	None	None	Real money at risk

Links

• World State API — try it now
• Interactive demo
• Documentation
• All endpoints
• MCP Server
• npm CLI — npm install -g @spfunctions/cli

License

MIT