veritas-epistemic 0.1.1

Epistemic confidence engine — every AI belief carries its provenance

Veritas

Epistemic confidence engine — beliefs with provenance.

Most knowledge systems store facts. Veritas stores how well you know them.

Every claim carries a confidence vector derived from its sources, how those sources have aged, whether its foundations are solid, and whether contradicting evidence exists in the database. Shake a foundation and everything built on it moves automatically.

---

The problem

AI agents act on beliefs they can't evaluate. "The API is reliable" — based on what? One observation from 2022? Twenty independent tests from this month? A single fragile assumption that everything else depends on?

Without epistemic structure, agents overclaim certainty or collapse into paralysis. Veritas gives beliefs a shape: not just a value, but fragility, staleness, and a provenance chain you can audit.

---

Install

pip install veritas-epistemic
# For semantic contradiction detection:
pip install veritas-epistemic[semantic]

---

Quick start

# Add a claim with sources
veritas add "Persistent memory improves agent consistency" \
  --source "Cathedral benchmark 2026 — 10.8x stability improvement" --weight 0.85 \
  --source "Empirical session tests 2026" --weight 0.75 \
  --context cathedral

# See full provenance breakdown
veritas trace "Persistent memory"

# Run the reasoning guard before acting
veritas check "Persistent memory improves agent consistency"

  Claim : Persistent memory improves agent consistency
Context : cathedral
     ID : dac6295c  (added 2026-05-08)

  Direct   [##################..] 0.90  src:2  contra:0  fragility:0.12

---

Core concepts

Confidence vectors

Confidence is not a single number — it has a shape.

Field	Meaning
value	Current best estimate (0–1), with temporal decay applied
fragility	How much confidence drops if the best source is removed
staleness_penalty	How much evidence aging has already cost
source_diversity	How independent your sources are from each other

from veritas import VeritasDB, calculate_confidence
from veritas.models import Claim, Source, Stance

db = VeritasDB("~/.veritas/veritas.db")
claim = db.search("persistent memory")[0]
cv = calculate_confidence(claim.sources)

print(cv.value)            # 0.90
print(cv.fragility)        # 0.12  — reasonably robust
print(cv.staleness_penalty) # 0.00  — sources are fresh

---

Temporal decay

Evidence ages. A 1986 study should carry less weight than a 2024 replication. A theorem from 1936 should carry exactly the same weight as the day it was proved.

Source type	Half-life	Example
MATHEMATICAL	timeless	Turing 1936, Gödel 1931
THEORETICAL	~140 years	Newton, Darwin
EMPIRICAL	~10 years	Studies, benchmarks
AUTHORITY	~6 years	Expert consensus
META	~4 years	Literature reviews
ANECDOTAL	~2 years	Personal accounts

# See what's going stale
veritas stale

  Claims losing confidence to age:

  -0.32  [##########..........] 0.54  Minsky 1967: AI will solve all problems
         59.0y  0.70->0.07  [ANEC]  Minsky 1967 interview

# Attach a date to a source so decay starts from publication, not today
veritas source "neural networks can learn" \
  --citation "Hinton 1986 backpropagation" --weight 0.85 --date 1986-01-01

---

Belief propagation

Claims depend on other claims. When a foundation weakens, everything built on it updates automatically.

veritas add "AI agents currently lose state between sessions" \
  --source "OpenAI API docs — no persistent memory" --weight 0.95

veritas add "Developers need persistent agent memory" \
  --source "Community feedback 2026" --weight 0.65

veritas add "Cathedral will find a market" \
  --source "Personal assessment" --weight 0.60

# Wire the dependency chain
veritas depends "Developers need persistent" --on "AI agents currently lose state"
veritas depends "Cathedral will find a market" --on "Developers need persistent"

veritas chain "Cathedral will find a market"

  [0.86] Cathedral will find a market
    |-- [IND] -->
      [0.89] Developers need persistent agent memory
        |-- [IND] -->
          [0.95] AI agents currently lose state between sessions

Now add a contradicting source to the bottom claim and watch it propagate upward — without touching the top two claims.

---

Semantic contradiction detection

Finds conflicts across different vocabulary. No shared words needed.

from veritas import VeritasDB, find_contradictions
from veritas.models import Claim, Source, Stance

db = VeritasDB("~/.veritas/veritas.db")
claim = db.search("physical activity strengthens cardiovascular")[0]

contras = find_contradictions(claim, db.all_claims(), db=db)
# Finds: "Exercise has no proven benefit for heart health"
# — zero content words in common, caught via sentence embeddings

Falls back to keyword matching if sentence-transformers is not installed.

---

Reasoning guard

Before an agent acts on a belief, check whether it actually holds up.

from veritas import VeritasDB, ReasoningGuard

db = VeritasDB("~/.veritas/veritas.db")
guard = ReasoningGuard(db)

result = guard.check("GPT-3 represents the state of the art in language models")
print(result)

[CAUTION] confidence=0.87  Belief has weaknesses that should be acknowledged
  * Stale — evidence aging has reduced confidence by 0.12

if result.should_proceed:
    # act
else:
    # surface the flags to the user or upstream system
    for flag in result.flags:
        print(flag)

Verdicts: PROCEED · CAUTION · HALT

Triggers: low confidence · single source · high fragility · staleness · contradictions

Threshold reference

Condition	Default threshold	Verdict effect
confidence < 0.30	HALT_CONFIDENCE	HALT — don't act
confidence < 0.55	CAUTION_CONFIDENCE	CAUTION — flag uncertainty
source_count == 1	—	CAUTION — always, regardless of confidence
fragility > 0.25	FRAGILITY_CAUTION	CAUTION — drops badly if best source removed
staleness_penalty > 0.08	STALENESS_CAUTION	CAUTION — evidence aging has cost confidence
contradiction confidence >= 0.45	CONTRA_HALT_CONF	CAUTION — well-sourced counter-claim exists

All thresholds are constants at the top of veritas/guard.py — tune them per use case.

---

Epistemic fingerprint

Every belief system has a characteristic reasoning style. The fingerprint measures it.

veritas fingerprint --context cathedral

  Epistemic Fingerprint: cathedral
  ========================================================
  Claims: 12   Sources: 31   Avg sources/claim: 2.6

  Source composition:
    EMPIRICAL      [################........] 65%
    AUTHORITY      [########................] 32%
    ANECDOTAL      [##......................] 8%

  Confidence profile:
    Average        [##################......] 0.87
    Fragility      [####....................] 0.18
    Overconfident  [##......................] 8% of claims
    Single-source  [######..................] 25% of claims

  Epistemic health:
    Contradicted   [####....................] 17% of claims
    Rigor score    [################........] 0.68
    Calibration    [####################....] 0.84
    Overall        [##################......] 0.76

Compare two contexts side by side:

veritas compare cathedral philosophy

Two agents with the same beliefs but different fingerprints are different kinds of reasoners.

---

Full command reference

veritas add         STATEMENT [--source ...] [--weight] [--date YYYY-MM-DD] [--context]
veritas source      CLAIM_REF --citation ... [--weight] [--stance] [--date]
veritas depends     CLAIM_REF --on CLAIM_REF [--inference DEDUCTIVE|INDUCTIVE|ABDUCTIVE]
veritas trace       CLAIM_REF          full provenance breakdown
veritas chain       CLAIM_REF          dependency tree with live confidence at each level
veritas check       CLAIM_TEXT         reasoning guard verdict
veritas challenge   CLAIM_REF          find contradicting claims
veritas fingerprint [--context]        epistemic style of a belief system
veritas compare     CONTEXT_A CONTEXT_B  side-by-side fingerprint diff
veritas query       [--fragile] [--low] [--unsourced] [--context]
veritas weakest     [--limit]          most fragile beliefs
veritas stale       [--threshold]      claims losing confidence to age
veritas report                         overall epistemic health
veritas demo                           live walkthrough of all capabilities
veritas delete      CLAIM_REF

---

Python API

from veritas import (
    VeritasDB,
    Claim, Source, Stance, SourceType,
    calculate_confidence,  # direct sources only
    propagate,             # with belief propagation through dependency chain
    find_contradictions,   # semantic when available, keyword fallback
    ReasoningGuard,
)

---

Roadmap

• Confidence vectors with noisy-OR source pooling
• Temporal decay by source type (MATHEMATICAL to ANECDOTAL)
• Belief propagation — foundations affect dependent claims
• Semantic contradiction detection via sentence embeddings
• Reasoning guard for agent pre-flight checks
• Published to PyPI: pip install veritas-epistemic
• Active challenge mode — search for contradicting evidence automatically
• Cathedral integration — epistemic layer on top of persistent agent memory
• REST API for multi-agent use

---

Connection to Cathedral

Cathedral gives AI agents persistent memory across sessions. Veritas is the reasoning layer that sits on top: Cathedral stores what an agent remembers, Veritas tracks how well those memories hold up.

Together: an agent knows its history and knows how much to trust it.

---

License

MIT