WaveDesk

Market-analysis desk for stocks, oil, gold, and other assets. Seven analysis agents (Elliott Wave, EMA, Fibonacci, VWAP, ADX, Price Action/S&R, monthly RSI) run in parallel and feed a chief-analyst synthesizer, on top of a forward volatility forecast, a Monte Carlo outcome simulation, risk-managed position sizing, portfolio context, and a walk-forward backtest.

The math is deterministic and reproducible; Claude provides the judgement calls, anchored to the numbers the engine hands it.

⚠️ Decision-support / research tool. Not investment advice, and not a licensed adviser. Markets are not predictable; all signals require independent validation and risk management.

Install & run (for end users)

WaveDesk runs entirely on your own machine — no server, no shared account.

pipx install wavedesk        # isolated install, adds the `wavedesk` command
#   or:  pip install wavedesk
wavedesk                     # starts the desk and opens your browser

Other commands:

wavedesk serve --port 9000 --no-open   # just the web server
wavedesk analyze gold --json           # one-shot CLI forecast
wavedesk backtest gold --period 5y     # walk-forward track record

LLM is optional and bring-your-own — WaveDesk auto-detects, in order:

1. a local claude CLI (Claude Code subscription) → uses it, free to you;
2. an ANTHROPIC_API_KEY in your environment/.env → uses the API;
3. otherwise the deterministic engine — the 7 indicators, Monte Carlo, volatility forecast, sizing, portfolio, and backtest all run with no LLM.

So it costs nothing to run and needs no account. matplotlib (for the CLI --plot chart only) is an optional extra: pip install "wavedesk[plot]".

How it works

 yfinance OHLC ─► ZigZag pivots ─► Elliott rule check ─► Fibonacci targets ─► Claude ─► forecast
   data.py          waves.py          waves.py              waves.py        agent.py

1. Pivots — a percentage ZigZag filter reduces noisy candles to alternating swing highs/lows.
2. Rules — the last 6 pivots are tested against the three hard Elliott impulse rules:
   • Wave 2 never fully retraces wave 1
   • Wave 3 is never the shortest of waves 1/3/5
   • Wave 4 never overlaps wave 1's price territory
3. Fibonacci — retracement and extension levels off the last completed swing become concrete price targets.
4. Claude (claude-opus-4-8, adaptive thinking, structured output) reads all of the above and returns a JSON forecast: wave count, direction, target, invalidation level, confidence, horizon, and rationale.

Without an API key it still runs, using a transparent rule-based fallback.

Enabling Claude (optional)

The app runs fine with no setup (a transparent rule-based engine). For much better wave counts, it can use Claude via one of two backends, chosen automatically (WAVEDESK_LLM_BACKEND=auto):

export ANTHROPIC_API_KEY=sk-ant-...   # optional — only for the API backend
wavedesk

A .env file in the directory you run wavedesk from is also read, if you prefer that to exporting.

auto prefers the API when a key is set, otherwise falls back to the claude CLI subscription, otherwise the rule-based engine. Force a choice with WAVEDESK_LLM_BACKEND=cli|api or disable Claude entirely with WAVEDESK_NO_LLM=1. The result card's Engine footnote shows which one answered.

Note: driving an app from the claude CLI counts against your Claude Code usage limits. Keep it to personal/light use.

Web UI (recommended)

A warm "commodity desk" web interface: pick an asset, choose the lens, and read the waves. FastAPI serves both the UI and the JSON API.

wavedesk                                # → http://127.0.0.1:8000, opens your browser
wavedesk serve --port 9000 --no-open    # pick a port, don't open the browser

Open the URL, click Gold (or Oil, Bitcoin, S&P 500, …) or type any ticker, tune the history/candle/swing controls, and hit Read the waves. You get a verdict badge, target & invalidation levels, a hand-drawn chart with the ZigZag pivots overlaid, the impulse-rule check, and the model's rationale.

Command line

# Friendly names: gold, oil, btc, silver, sp500, nasdaq ... or any ticker
wavedesk analyze gold
wavedesk analyze oil  --period 2y --interval 1wk --plot
wavedesk analyze AAPL --threshold 0.04 --json

Options

Decision-support layer (for expert review)

Three deterministic modules turn the ensemble's signal into decision support. The methodology is deliberately conservative and auditable:

Backtest / track record (backtest.py, /api/backtest, "Run backtest" button)

• Walk-forward, no look-ahead: at each historical date the signal is built from data up to that day only, then scored on the forward window.
• Backtests the deterministic rule consensus + volatility model — not the LLM. The LLM interpretation can only be judged by forward-tracking live calls (thousands of historical LLM calls are impractical). Treat the numbers as a floor/sanity check on the underlying logic.
• Non-overlapping windows (independent samples); excludes costs/slippage.
• Reports hit rate, expectancy, win/loss, strategy-vs-buy&hold, volatility calibration (fraction of realized moves inside the predicted 1σ / 90% band), and per-indicator attribution. wavedesk backtest gold --period 5y

Position sizing & risk (sizing.py, trade_plans in /api/predict)

• Risk-first, deterministic (never LLM): units = (risk% × capital) / |entry − stop|, with the chief analyst's invalidation as the stop → bounded loss.
• Confidence scales within the risk budget; position also capped by a per-profile max weight. Profiles — conservative / moderate / aggressive — set risk-per-trade (0.5 / 1 / 2%), max position (10 / 20 / 35%), and minimum reward:risk (2.0 / 1.5 / 1.2).
• Trades below the profile's min R:R are flagged skip. Kelly & expected value come from the Monte Carlo endpoint distribution.

Portfolio context (portfolio.py, /api/portfolio)

• Correlation-based (Pearson on daily log returns): correlation-to-book, diversification score, concentrated-cluster %, effect on portfolio volatility, and a suggested max weight that shrinks as correlation rises.

⚠️ These make it a decision-support / research tool, not a licensed adviser. Personalized advice for compensation requires registration (e.g. SEBI RIA/RA, SEC/state RIA). Not investment advice.

Project layout

wavedesk/
  data.py        # yfinance OHLC loading + ticker aliases
  waves.py       # ZigZag, Elliott rules, Fibonacci; assembles the 7 indicators
  indicators.py  # EMA, VWAP, ADX, price-action/S&R, monthly RSI (deterministic)
  volforecast.py # forward volatility forecast (EWMA + horizon backtest)
  montecarlo.py  # Monte Carlo path simulation + outcome distribution
  agent.py       # 6 analyst LLM calls + chief synthesizer (+ rule fallback)
  sizing.py      # position sizing & risk profiles (deterministic)
  portfolio.py   # correlation / concentration context
  backtest.py    # walk-forward track record (deterministic layer)
  cli.py         # command-line entry point
  server.py      # FastAPI: serves the UI + JSON API
  static/        # index.html · styles.css · app.js (the web UI)

Tuning the ZigZag threshold

The single most important knob. Too small and you'll label noise as waves; too large and you'll miss the structure. Daily equities/indices: 0.03–0.05. Commodities and crypto (more volatile): 0.06–0.10. Weekly bars: lower it.