wildfire-flood-cascade-utac

GenesisAeon Package 121 — a real, seven-citation cascade: fire-season timing shift (regionally divergent), two independent precipitation- intensification mechanisms, and three independent flood-severity- amplification mechanisms. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

Where this package came from

Johann's own subjective observation ("fires seem to start earlier now, and the traditional rainy season then brings more precipitation") followed by five of his own proposed mechanism hypotheses, raised one message at a time and each independently checked against real literature, 2026-08-31.

What's real here

1. Fan et al. (2026, GRL) + Madakumbura et al. (2025, Science Advances) — fire-season timing shift is real but regionally divergent: boreal/taiga earlier, Mediterranean/desert later and extended, prairie/humid muted. California onset advanced 6-46 days across 11 of 13 ecoregions, 1992-2020.
2. Zhu et al. (2025, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science) — smoke aerosols act as cloud-condensation/ice-nucleating particles, delaying coalescence to higher altitude and intensifying latent-heat release, across 5 fire-impacted regions.
3. Calvo-Sancho et al. (2026, Nature Communications) — the October 2024 Valencia flash flood: hourly rainfall intensity +20%/degC C (exceeding simple Clausius-Clapeyron ~7%/degC scaling), 6-hour rate +21%, area above 180mm rainfall +55%, vs. a pre-industrial counterfactual.
4. Kang et al. (2025, Communications Earth & Environment) — SE Australia, 3 real megafires, 50-year streamflow record: annual flood probability rose from ~1-in-64-years to ~1-in-8-years after a megafire, via canopy/litter interception loss (explicitly not soil hydrophobicity).
5. Hawker et al. (2026, Communications Earth & Environment) — standard channel-capacity assumptions underestimate flood extent by 9-152% and population exposure by 15-472%, Mississippi basin; channel geometry change shifts flood risk by a magnitude comparable to climate change over the same period.
6. Azadgar et al. (2026, Journal of Environmental Management) — a real WASI/NWASI land-take framework across 4 European cities (Gdansk, Milan, Ghent, Oslo), 2012-2018: sealing measurably reduces stormwater retention capacity.

Deliberately not one system

is_combined_cascade_a_directly_studied_single_system() returns False — no single paper studies Johann's full combined causal chain (earlier fires -> intensified precipitation -> amplified flood damage via forest/channel/settlement/glacier factors) as one system for one region. Every individual link is real and independently verified; the combination is a plausible, mechanistically-grounded synthesis, not an established finding. glacier_buffer_cross_reference() points to glacier-buffer-utac (P99, Huss & Hock 2018) for the glacier-loss half rather than re-deriving it here.

Installation

pip install wildfire-flood-cascade-utac

Quick start

from wildfire_flood_cascade_utac import (
    is_shift_direction_uniform_globally,
    flood_probability_increase_factor,
    is_combined_cascade_a_directly_studied_single_system,
)

is_shift_direction_uniform_globally()  # False -- regionally divergent
flood_probability_increase_factor()  # ~7.9x, Kang et al. 2025
is_combined_cascade_a_directly_studied_single_system()  # False -- the honesty check

License

Code: MIT. Documentation/data notes: see DISCLAIMER.md.

Citation

See CITATION.cff.