amoc-utac

GenesisAeon Package 18 — Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation as UTAC System

AMOC modelled as UTAC dynamical system with physics-based early-warning from van Westen et al. (2024).

Key result: Γ_AMOC ≈ 0.251 (medium-CREP) → same universality point as neural criticality (η = 50 %).

Installation

pip install amoc-utac

For development:

pip install -e ".[dev]"

Quickstart

amoc-utac run --duration 120
amoc-utac tipping-estimate
amoc-utac zenodo-export

Integration in genesis-os

from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
amoc = os.load_package(18)
results = amoc.run_cycle(duration_years=120)

Benchmark

Validated against RAPID array, van Westen 2024 & Ditlevsen 2023.

Falsifiable Prediction

AMOC crosses 50 % weakening (H* = 0.5 K) between 2045–2065.

Scientific Context — Consensus vs. Single Studies (added 2026-08-01)

The Ditlevsen & Ditlevsen (2023) tipping-year estimate this package compares against (central 2057, range 2025–2095) is a real, published, but more alarmist single study, not the mainstream consensus. The IPCC AR6 Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (2021) itself assesses an abrupt AMOC collapse before 2100 as "very unlikely", stating medium confidence that there will not be an abrupt collapse before 2100. Both positions are real and are now surfaced together in predict_tipping_year()'s return value (ipcc_ar6_confidence_statement, ipcc_ar6_citation, consensus_note) and in the tipping-estimate CLI command's output table, so users see the consensus baseline alongside this package's own (more alarmist) UTAC estimate rather than only the latter.

Role in the GenesisAeon Ecosystem

amoc-utac is P18 in the GenesisAeon ecosystem, covering the oceanography / AMOC tipping domain. It applies the UTAC-Logistic ODE and CREP metrics to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, sharing its criticality framework (Γ ≈ 0.251) with sibling packages across other domains (e.g. neuroscience, heliophysics).

Citation

License

Code: MIT • Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0