climate-disease-attribution-utac

GenesisAeon Package 111 — climate-attributable disease burden. Independently re-verified from a "klima_flucht_gesundheit" research report's disease chapter, after finding that report's in-text citation hyperlinks were systematically mismatched to their claims (the anchor text/URL pair maps correctly in the document's own bibliography, but is attached to the wrong sentence in the body text) — every figure here was re-derived from the primary source directly, not copied from that document. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

For a plain-language explanation of the same topic (German, no jargon, written for general audiences), see WHITEPAPER.md.

Deliberately narrower than the source report

Only the three pathways with quantitatively hard climate attribution (vector-borne, waterborne, direct heat) plus one cross-cutting synthesis metric are included. Deliberately excluded: climate- migration causality itself (the source report's own conclusion: statistically weak, contested — see its Kap. 5.1/5.2), funding/legal/ policy content, and 2025/2026 time-bound outbreak snapshots (Dougui Chad, Cox's Bazar, Zamzam) — the same "no time-bound current- conditions snapshots, no governance/policy content" precedent applied throughout this ecosystem.

Deliberately not one-sided

This package includes a real correction of the source report's own numbers, not just confirmation of its claims: source_document_figure_was_wrong() returns True — the source stated the Lancet Countdown 2025 heat-mortality rate increase since the 1990s as 23%; independent re-verification against three separate secondary reports of the same 2025 Lancet Countdown found 63%, not 23%. It also includes a claim-type honesty check: is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution() returns False — Mora et al. (2022)'s "58% of diseases are climate-sensitive" is a disease-count fraction, not the same kind of claim as a disease-burden-attribution fraction like dengue's 18%.

What's real here

• WHO (2025, Weekly Epidemiological Record) — 2024 was the highest global dengue burden ever recorded: 14,434,584 cases, 11,201 deaths, all 6 WHO regions.
• Childs, Lyberger, Harris, Burke, Mordecai et al. (2025, PNAS) — a real climate-attribution estimate: 18% (95% CI: 11–27%) of historical dengue incidence across 21 countries is attributable to anthropogenic warming (>4.6M extra infections/year) — a probabilistic estimate with an explicit confidence interval, not a single deterministic number.
• WHO cholera 2024 situation reporting — 560,823 cases / 6,028 deaths (final, revised); deaths rose ~50% year-on-year even as cases stayed roughly flat vs. 2023 — a real, observed case-fatality pattern, documented without adopting a specific causal claim about why.
• Reyburn, Kim, Emch, Khatib, von Seidlein & Ali (2011, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene) — a real, dated (1997–2006) Zanzibar time series: a 1°C temperature rise (4-month lag) is associated with a 2-fold increase in cholera cases.
• Romanello, Walawender et al. (2025, The Lancet, Lancet Countdown) — 546,000 average annual heat deaths, a 63% rate increase since the 1990s (corrected from the source report's erroneous 23%).
• Mora, McKenzie, Gaw et al. (2022, Nature Climate Change) — the honesty-check citation: 218 of 375 (58%) known human pathogenic diseases have at least one documented climate- aggravation pathway — a disease-count fraction, not a burden- attribution fraction.

Quickstart

pip install climate-disease-attribution-utac

from climate_disease_attribution_utac import (
    WHO_DENGUE_2024,
    DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION,
    is_deterministic_not_probabilistic,
    WHO_CHOLERA_2024,
    ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK,
    death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count,
    HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND,
    source_document_figure_was_wrong,
    PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY,
    is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution,
)

print(WHO_DENGUE_2024.cases)                        # 14434584
print(DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION.fraction)           # 0.18
print(is_deterministic_not_probabilistic())          # False
print(WHO_CHOLERA_2024.cases_final)                  # 560823
print(ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK.temperature_case_multiplier_per_1c)  # 2.0
print(death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count())      # True
print(HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND.rate_increase_pct_since_1990s)  # 63.0
print(source_document_figure_was_wrong())            # True
print(PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY.diseases_aggravated)  # 218
print(is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution())    # False

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.