climate-disease-attribution-utac

GenesisAeon Package 111 — climate-attributable disease burden. Independently re-verified from a "klima_flucht_gesundheit" research report's disease chapter, after finding that report's in-text citation hyperlinks were systematically mismatched to their claims (the anchor text/URL pair maps correctly in the document's own bibliography, but is attached to the wrong sentence in the body text) — every figure here was re-derived from the primary source directly, not copied from that document. Deliberately has no UTAC/CREP/AFET bridge — see DISCLAIMER.md.

Deliberately narrower than the source report

Only the three pathways with quantitatively hard climate attribution (vector-borne, waterborne, direct heat) plus one cross-cutting synthesis metric are included. Deliberately excluded: climate- migration causality itself (the source report's own conclusion: statistically weak, contested — see its Kap. 5.1/5.2), funding/legal/ policy content, and 2025/2026 time-bound outbreak snapshots (Dougui Chad, Cox's Bazar, Zamzam) — the same "no time-bound current- conditions snapshots, no governance/policy content" precedent applied throughout this ecosystem.

Deliberately not one-sided

This package includes a real correction of the source report's own numbers, not just confirmation of its claims: source_document_figure_was_wrong() returns True — the source stated the Lancet Countdown 2025 heat-mortality rate increase since the 1990s as 23%; independent re-verification against three separate secondary reports of the same 2025 Lancet Countdown found 63%, not 23%. It also includes a claim-type honesty check: is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution() returns False — Mora et al. (2022)'s "58% of diseases are climate-sensitive" is a disease-count fraction, not the same kind of claim as a disease-burden-attribution fraction like dengue's 18%.

What's real here

• WHO (2025, Weekly Epidemiological Record) — 2024 was the highest global dengue burden ever recorded: 14,434,584 cases, 11,201 deaths, all 6 WHO regions.
• Childs, Lyberger, Harris, Burke, Mordecai et al. (2025, PNAS) — a real climate-attribution estimate: 18% (95% CI: 11–27%) of historical dengue incidence across 21 countries is attributable to anthropogenic warming (>4.6M extra infections/year) — a probabilistic estimate with an explicit confidence interval, not a single deterministic number.
• WHO cholera 2024 situation reporting — 560,823 cases / 6,028 deaths (final, revised); deaths rose ~50% year-on-year even as cases stayed roughly flat vs. 2023 — a real, observed case-fatality pattern, documented without adopting a specific causal claim about why.
• Reyburn, Kim, Emch, Khatib, von Seidlein & Ali (2011, American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene) — a real, dated (1997–2006) Zanzibar time series: a 1°C temperature rise (4-month lag) is associated with a 2-fold increase in cholera cases.
• Romanello, Walawender et al. (2025, The Lancet, Lancet Countdown) — 546,000 average annual heat deaths, a 63% rate increase since the 1990s (corrected from the source report's erroneous 23%).
• Mora, McKenzie, Gaw et al. (2022, Nature Climate Change) — the honesty-check citation: 218 of 375 (58%) known human pathogenic diseases have at least one documented climate- aggravation pathway — a disease-count fraction, not a burden- attribution fraction.

Quickstart

pip install climate-disease-attribution-utac

from climate_disease_attribution_utac import (
    WHO_DENGUE_2024,
    DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION,
    is_deterministic_not_probabilistic,
    WHO_CHOLERA_2024,
    ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK,
    death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count,
    HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND,
    source_document_figure_was_wrong,
    PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY,
    is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution,
)

print(WHO_DENGUE_2024.cases)                        # 14434584
print(DENGUE_CLIMATE_ATTRIBUTION.fraction)           # 0.18
print(is_deterministic_not_probabilistic())          # False
print(WHO_CHOLERA_2024.cases_final)                  # 560823
print(ZANZIBAR_CHOLERA_CLIMATE_LINK.temperature_case_multiplier_per_1c)  # 2.0
print(death_toll_rose_faster_than_case_count())      # True
print(HEAT_MORTALITY_TREND.rate_increase_pct_since_1990s)  # 63.0
print(source_document_figure_was_wrong())            # True
print(PATHOGEN_CLIMATE_SENSITIVITY.diseases_aggravated)  # 218
print(is_same_claim_type_as_burden_attribution())    # False

Development

pip install -e ".[dev]"
pre-commit install
ruff check src tests
mypy src
pytest

Citation

See CITATION.cff and .zenodo.json.