eruption-forecast 0.2.0

Eruption forecast modelling

eruption-forecast

Process raw seismic tremor, extract time-series features, train multi-seed classifier ensembles, and produce probabilistic volcanic eruption forecasts. Forked from ddempsey/whakaari and substantially extended.

References and Acknowledgments

Dempsey, D. E., Cronin, S. J., Mei, S., & Kempa-Liehr, A. W. (2020). Automatic precursor recognition and real-time forecasting of sudden explosive volcanic eruptions at Whakaari, New Zealand. Nature Communications, 11(1), 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-17375-2 This model implements a time series feature engineering and classification workflow that issues eruption alerts based on real-time tremor data. https://github.com/ddempsey/whakaari

Ardid, A., Dempsey, D., Caudron, C., Cronin, S., Kennedy, B., Girona, T., Roman, D., Miller, C., Potter, S., Lamb, O. D., Martanto, A., Cubuk-Sabuncu, Y., Cabrera, L., Ruiz, S., Contreras, R., Pacheco, J., Mora, M. M., & De Angelis, S. (2025). Ergodic seismic precursors and transfer learning for short term eruption forecasting at data scarce volcanoes. Nature Communications , 16(1), 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56689-x

Ardid, A., Dempsey, D., Caudron, C., & Cronin, S. (2022). Seismic precursors to the Whakaari 2019 phreatic eruption are transferable to other eruptions and volcanoes. Nature Communications, 13(1), 2002. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-29681-y

Endo, E. T., & Murray, T. L. (1991). Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool. Bulletin of Volcanology, 53, 533–545.

Caudron, C., et al., 2019, Change in seismic attenuation as a long-term precursor of gas-driven eruptions: Geology, https://doi.org/10.1130/G46107.1

Rey-Devesa, P., Prudencio, J., Benítez, C., Bretón, M., Plasencia, I., León, Z., Ortigosa, F., Gutiérrez, L., Arámbula-Mendoza, R., & Ibáñez, J. M. (2023). Tracking volcanic explosions using Shannon entropy at Volcán de Colima. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-36964-x

Christ, M., Braun, N., Neuffer, J., & Kempa-Liehr, A. W. (2018). Time Series FeatuRe Extraction on basis of Scalable Hypothesis tests (tsfresh – A Python package). Neurocomputing, 307, 72–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neucom.2018.03.067

Lei, Y., & Wu, Z. (2020). Time series classification based on statistical features. Eurasip Journal on Wireless Communications and Networking, 2020(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13638-020-1661-4

Chardot, L., Jolly, A. D., Kennedy, B. M., Fournier, N., & Sherburn, S. (2015). Using volcanic tremor for eruption forecasting at White Island volcano (Whakaari), New Zealand. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 302, 11–23. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2015.06.001

Time-series feature analysis and eruption forecasting for volcano data. Successor package to Whakaari. This model implements a time series feature engineering and classification workflow that issues eruption alerts based on real-time tremor data. https://github.com/ddempsey/puia

Important Disclaimers

This software is intended for research purposes only.

1. Probabilistic Predictions: This eruption forecast model provides probabilistic predictions of future volcanic activity, NOT deterministic guarantees. Predictions should be interpreted as likelihood estimates based on historical seismic patterns.

2. No Guarantee of Accuracy: This model is not guaranteed to predict every future eruption. Volcanic systems are complex and can exhibit unexpected behavior. False negatives (missed eruptions) and false positives (false alarms) are possible.

3. Software Limitations: This software is not guaranteed to be free of bugs or errors. Users should validate results independently and use this tool as one component of a comprehensive volcano monitoring strategy.

4. Not for Operational Use: This package is a research tool and should not be used as the sole basis for public safety decisions, evacuation orders, or emergency response without expert volcanological assessment.

5. Expert Interpretation Required: Results should always be interpreted by qualified volcanologists familiar with the specific volcano being monitored.

Always consult with local volcano observatories and follow official warnings from government agencies.

---

Table of Contents

• References and Acknowledgments
• Features
• Package Architecture
• Pipeline Overview
• Installation
• Data Sources
• Quick Start
• Common Patterns
• Supported Classifiers
• Cross-Validation Strategies
• Output Directory Structure
• Requirements
• Development
• Contributing
• License

Detailed documentation — the wiki at https://github.com/martanto/eruption-forecast/wiki is the single source of truth (also mirrored under wiki/):

• Getting Started — Prerequisites, install, dev commands
• Pipeline Walkthrough — Research (main.py) + Scenarios (scenarios.py) workflows
• Training Workflow — Classifiers, CV strategies, imbalance handling
• Prediction Workflow — Forecast outputs and consensus probabilities
• Evaluation Workflow — MetricsEnsemble, ClassifierComparator
• Configuration — YAML save/replay, Telegram notifications, logging
• Visualization — Plot catalog and output paths
• Output Structure — Full directory tree
• Architecture — Package layout and class relationships
• API Reference — Every public class with parameter tables

---

Features

• Tremor Calculation — RSAM, DSAR, and Shannon Entropy across configurable frequency bands, from SDS archives or FDSN web services (with transparent local caching).
• Label Building — Standard sliding-window (LabelBuilder) or per-eruption (DynamicLabelBuilder) generation from known eruption dates.
• Feature Extraction — tsfresh feature engineering on windowed tremor matrices, with two-stage selection (tsfresh FDR + RandomForest importance).
• Multi-seed Training — 11 classifier families (rf, gb, xgb, svm, lr, nn, dt, knn, nb, voting, lite-rf), three CV strategies, automatic imbalance handling, and per-seed GridSearchCV.
• Ensemble Packaging — SeedEnsemble bundles every seed for one classifier; ClassifierEnsemble bundles multiple classifiers; both implement the sklearn BaseEstimator + ClassifierMixin interface.
• Probabilistic Forecasting — PredictionModel produces per-seed, per-classifier, and consensus probabilities with uncertainty bands over an unlabelled window grid.
• Evaluation + Comparison — EvaluationModel runs metrics over a training or prediction reuse mode; MetricsEnsemble writes per-seed JSON; ClassifierComparator ranks classifiers head-to-head.
• Content-Addressable Caching — TrainingModel and PredictionModel cache their fitted state under {output_dir}/cache/ so repeated runs with identical kwargs short-circuit.
• Config Round-Trip — fm.save_config() → YAML → ForecastModel.from_config(path).run() replays a full pipeline.
• Telegram Notifications — @notify decorator + send_telegram_notification() for start/finish/error messages and file attachments.
• Multi-processing — n_jobs (outer seed workers) × n_grids (inner GridSearchCV / FeatureSelector workers) parallelism, clamped to total_cpu - 2 automatically.

Package Architecture

src/eruption_forecast/
├── __init__.py, logger.py, data_container.py
├── config/        forecast_config, training_config, constants
├── dataclass/     station_data
├── decorators/    notify, decorator_class
├── ensemble/      base_ensemble, seed_ensemble, classifier_ensemble, metrics_ensemble
├── features/      tremor_matrix_builder, features_builder, feature_selector
├── label/         label_builder, dynamic_label_builder, label_data, label_plots
├── model/         base_model, cache_model, forecast_model,
│                  training_model, prediction_model, evaluation_model,
│                  classifier_model, classifier_comparator
├── plots/         styles, tremor_plots, feature_plots, forecast_plots, evaluation_plots
├── sources/       base, sds, fdsn
├── tremor/        calculate_tremor, rsam, dsar, shannon_entropy, tremor_data
└── utils/         array, dataframe, date_utils, formatting, ml,
                   pathutils, validation, window

Full directory tree, class relationships, and per-component details: wiki/Architecture.md

Pipeline Overview

        ┌──────────────┐     ┌────────────────────┐    ┌─────────────────┐
        │  Seismic     │     │  CalculateTremor   │    │   TremorData    │
        │  archive     │ ──► │  rsam/dsar/        │ ─► │  (CSV wrapper)  │
        │  (SDS|FDSN)  │     │  entropy + bands   │    │                 │
        └──────────────┘     └────────────────────┘    └────────┬────────┘
                                                                │
        ┌─────────── feature pipeline ──────────────────────────┴─────┐
        │   LabelBuilder / DynamicLabelBuilder                        │
        │   → TremorMatrixBuilder → FeaturesBuilder (tsfresh)         │
        │   → FeatureSelector (tsfresh FDR + RF importance)           │
        └────────────────────────────┬────────────────────────────────┘
                                     ▼
                       ┌────────────────────────┐
                       │     TrainingModel      │
                       │   build_label →        │
                       │   extract_features →   │
                       │   fit (N seeds × M cv) │
                       └──┬───────────────────┬─┘
                          │                   │
                          ▼                   ▼
                ┌────────────────┐    ┌────────────────────────┐
                │ SeedEnsemble × │ ─► │   ClassifierEnsemble   │
                │ N classifiers  │    │  (all SeedEnsembles)   │
                └────────────────┘    └──────────┬─────────────┘
                                                 │
                                                 ▼
                                  ┌──────────────────────────────┐
                                  │      PredictionModel         │
                                  │  build_label →               │
                                  │  extract_features →          │
                                  │  forecast (per-seed proba)   │
                                  └──────────┬───────────────────┘
                                             │
            ┌────────────────────────────────┴──────────────────────┐
            ▼                                                       ▼
   ┌──────────────────────┐                          ┌────────────────────────┐
   │   EvaluationModel    │                          │  result_all_model_     │
   │  training | predict  │  ── MetricsEnsemble ──►  │  predictions_*.csv +   │
   │                      │                          │  forecast PNG/PDF      │
   └──────────┬───────────┘                          └────────────────────────┘
              │
              ▼
   ┌──────────────────────┐
   │ ClassifierComparator │   ranking_*.csv + comparison figures
   └──────────────────────┘

ForecastModel.calculate() → train() → predict() → evaluate() is the fluent entry point. Each stage caches and persists, so a repeated run with identical kwargs short-circuits via the on-disk cache.

Installation

This project uses uv as the package manager.

# Clone the repository
git clone https://github.com/martanto/eruption-forecast.git
cd eruption-forecast

# Install dependencies
uv sync

# Install with dev dependencies (ruff, ty, pytest)
uv sync --group dev

Data Sources

The package reads seismic data from two sources, both routed through CalculateTremor.

SDS — SeisComP Data Structure

SDS is the layout used by SeisComP to store waveform data portably. See the official specification for full details.

Directory layout:

<sds_dir>/
└── YEAR/
    └── NET/
        └── STA/
            └── CHAN.TYPE/
                └── NET.STA.LOC.CHAN.TYPE.YEAR.DAY

Example for network VG, station OJN, channel EHZ, day 075 of 2025:

/data/
└── 2025/
    └── VG/
        └── OJN/
            └── EHZ.D/
                └── VG.OJN.00.EHZ.D.2025.075

Field	Description	Example
YEAR	Four-digit year	2025
NET	Network code	VG
STA	Station code	OJN
CHAN	Channel code	EHZ
LOC	Location code (may be empty)	00
TYPE	Data type (D = waveform data)	D
DAY	Three-digit day-of-year	075

Files are miniSEED format.

FDSN — Web Service

FDSN downloads waveform data from any FDSN-compatible web service (IRIS, GEOFON, etc.) and caches it locally as SDS miniSEED, so subsequent runs skip the network.

from eruption_forecast import ForecastModel

fm = ForecastModel(station="OJN", channel="EHZ", network="VG", location="00").calculate(
    start_date="2025-01-01", end_date="2025-01-31",
    source="fdsn", client_url="https://service.iris.edu",
)

SDS vs FDSN read-path diagram and adapter internals: wiki/Data-Sources.md

---

Quick Start

End-to-end pipeline from raw seismic data to forecast — train on Jan–Jul, predict Jul–Aug, evaluate against known eruption dates.

from eruption_forecast import ForecastModel

fm = ForecastModel(
    station="OJN",
    channel="EHZ",
    network="VG",
    location="00",
    day_to_forecast=2,           # look-ahead window in days
    root_dir="/path/to/project",
    n_jobs=4,
    verbose=True,
)

(
    fm.calculate(
        start_date="2025-01-01", end_date="2025-08-31",
        source="sds", sds_dir="/path/to/sds",
        methods=["rsam", "dsar", "entropy"],
        plot_daily=True, save_plot=True,
    )
    .train(
        start_date="2025-01-01", end_date="2025-07-26",
        eruption_dates=[
            "2025-03-20",
            "2025-04-22",
            "2025-05-18",
            "2025-06-17",
            "2025-07-07",
        ],
        window_step=6, window_step_unit="hours",
        classifiers=["lite-rf", "rf", "gb", "xgb"],
        cv_strategy="shuffle-stratified",
        cv_splits=5,
        seeds=25,
        top_n_features=20,
        select_tremor_columns=["rsam_f2", "rsam_f3", "rsam_f4", "dsar_f3-f4", "entropy"],
        resample_method="auto",
        use_cache=True,
    )
    .predict(
        start_date="2025-07-27", end_date="2025-08-22",
        window_step=10, window_step_unit="minutes",
        plot_threshold=0.7,
        plot_pdf=True,
    )
    .evaluate(
        model="prediction",
        eruption_dates=["2025-08-02"],   # falls back to train() dates when omitted
        plot_aggregate=True,
    )
)

# Pipeline outputs
print(fm.results)                         # forecast DataFrame
print(fm.evaluation_results)              # per-classifier per-seed metrics
print(fm.TrainingModel.classifier_ensemble_path)

What this pipeline does:

1. Calculate tremor — RSAM, DSAR, and Shannon Entropy from raw seismic, with outlier removal and daily plots.
2. Train — build labels around the 5 eruption dates, extract tsfresh features over a 6-hour window grid, fit 25 seeds × 4 classifiers under stratified-shuffle CV with "auto" imbalance handling.
3. Predict — apply the bundled ClassifierEnsemble to a fresh 10-minute window grid over the forecast period and emit per-classifier + consensus probabilities.
4. Evaluate — score the forecast against the held-out eruption date with per-seed metric JSONs, aggregate CSVs, and ranking plots.

See main.py for the full working example and scenarios.py for the multi-scenario variant.

Full per-stage guide: wiki/Pipeline-Walkthrough.md

---

Common Patterns

Use FDSN instead of a local SDS archive

fm.calculate(
    start_date="2025-01-01", end_date="2025-01-31",
    source="fdsn",
    client_url="https://service.iris.edu",
)
# Downloaded miniSEED is cached locally as SDS so subsequent runs skip the network.

Skip tremor calculation when the CSV already exists

TrainingModel and PredictionModel both accept either a pd.DataFrame or a tremor CSV path directly — handy when iterating on training kwargs without re-running calculate().

from eruption_forecast import TrainingModel

tm = (
    TrainingModel(
        tremor_data="output/VG.OJN.00.EHZ/tremor/VG.OJN.00.EHZ_2025-01-01_2025-08-31.csv",
        start_date="2025-01-01", end_date="2025-07-26",
        classifiers=["rf", "xgb"],
        eruption_dates=["2025-03-20"],
        window_size=2,
        top_n_features=20,
    )
    .build_label(window_step=6, window_step_unit="hours")
    .extract_features(select_tremor_columns=["rsam_f2", "rsam_f3", "dsar_f3-f4", "entropy"])
    .fit(seeds=25, resample_method="auto", plot_features=True)
)

Reuse curated features (skip full tsfresh re-extraction)

Once a TrainingModel run has persisted its features-matrix_*.csv and top_{N}_features.csv, two shortcuts let later runs reuse that work:

# Reuse features (fastest — tremor matrix unchanged)
(
    TrainingModel(...)
    .load_features(
        select_features="output/.../training/features/.../top_20_features.csv",
    )
    .fit(seeds=25)
)

# Or re-run tsfresh on the curated columns only
(
    TrainingModel(...)
    .build_label(window_step=6, window_step_unit="hours")
    .extract_features(
        select_features="output/.../training/features/.../top_20_features.csv",
    )
    .fit(seeds=25)
)

select_features accepts a CSV path or an explicit list[str] of fully-qualified tsfresh feature names. Per-seed selection inside fit() still runs; when the curated list is already ≤ top_n_features, it's effectively a no-op.

Forecast from a saved ClassifierEnsemble

from eruption_forecast import PredictionModel

pm = (
    PredictionModel(
        model="output/.../training/classifiers/ClassifierEnsemble_stratified-shuffle-split.pkl",
        tremor_data="output/.../tremor/VG.OJN.00.EHZ_2025-01-01_2025-08-31.csv",
        start_date="2025-07-27", end_date="2025-08-22",
        window_size=2,
    )
    .build_label(window_step=10, window_step_unit="minutes")
    .extract_features()
)
results = pm.forecast(plot_threshold=0.7, plot_pdf=True)

PredictionModel(model=...) also accepts a live ClassifierEnsemble / SeedEnsemble, a ClassifierEnsemble.json, a SeedEnsemble_*.pkl, or a trained-model registry CSV — resolved via ClassifierEnsemble.from_any(...).

Evaluate from a saved .pkl

from eruption_forecast import EvaluationModel

em = EvaluationModel.from_file(
    "output/.../PredictionModel_2025-07-27_2025-08-22.pkl",
    eruption_dates=["2025-08-02"],   # required for prediction reuse
)
metrics = em.evaluate(plot_aggregate=True)
comparator = em.compare()
print(comparator.get_ranking())

Save and replay the pipeline configuration

fm.evaluate(...) auto-calls save_config(). Call it manually at earlier stages to checkpoint partial runs.

fm.save_config()                       # → {station_dir}/forecast.config.yaml
fm.save_config(fmt="json")             # → forecast.config.json

# Replay
fm2 = ForecastModel.from_config("output/VG.OJN.00.EHZ/forecast.config.yaml")
fm2.run()                              # replays every captured non-None stage

Persist stage outputs explicitly

fm.TrainingModel.save()       # → {output_dir}/TrainingModel_{basename}.pkl
fm.PredictionModel.save()     # → {output_dir}/PredictionModel_{basename}.pkl
fm.EvaluationModel.save()     # → {output_dir}/EvaluationModel_{basename}.pkl

Silence logging during batch jobs

from eruption_forecast import disable_logging, enable_logging
from eruption_forecast.logger import set_log_level, set_log_directory

disable_logging()
fm.calculate(...).train(...).predict(...)       # silent
enable_logging()

set_log_level("WARNING")                        # console-only level
set_log_directory("logs/2026-06-10")            # move file handler

Telegram + logging full reference: wiki/Configuration.md

---

Supported Classifiers

Key	sklearn class	Imbalance handling	Notes
rf	RandomForestClassifier	class_weight="balanced"	Default; robust baseline
lite-rf	RandomForestClassifier	class_weight="balanced"	Smaller grid for faster training
gb	GradientBoostingClassifier	natural	—
xgb	XGBClassifier	scale_pos_weight grid	GPU-capable via use_gpu=True on the ClassifierModel
svm	SVC	class_weight="balanced"	—
lr	LogisticRegression	class_weight="balanced"	Fast, interpretable
nn	MLPClassifier	none	—
dt	DecisionTreeClassifier	class_weight="balanced"	Interpretable baseline
knn	KNeighborsClassifier	none	—
nb	GaussianNB	none	Fast baseline
voting	VotingClassifier (RF + XGBoost soft vote)	combined	GPU-capable

classifiers= accepts str or list[str]. One SeedEnsemble is built per classifier and bundled into a single ClassifierEnsemble for consensus forecasting.

Hyperparameter grids and tuning: wiki/Training-Workflow.md

Cross-Validation Strategies

cv_strategy	sklearn class	Best for
shuffle-stratified (default)	StratifiedShuffleSplit	Random splits with stratification
stratified	StratifiedKFold	Strict k-fold with class-distribution preservation
shuffle	ShuffleSplit	Random splits without stratification

timeseries (TimeSeriesSplit) is available via the lower-level ClassifierModel directly but is not exposed on fm.train(...).

Imbalance Handling

resample_method	Behaviour
"auto" (default)	Apply "under" (RandomUnderSampler) when the minority-class share is below minority_threshold (default 0.15), otherwise skip
"under"	Always apply RandomUnderSampler
"over"	Always apply RandomOverSampler
None	Skip resampling entirely

sampling_strategy=0.75 (default) is the target ratio passed to the resampler.

---

Output Directory Structure

All outputs land under {output_dir}/{network}.{station}.{location}.{channel}/ (e.g., output/VG.OJN.00.EHZ/).

{station_dir}/
├── tremor/                                  # CalculateTremor
│   ├── daily/                               # per-day CSVs (removed when cleanup_daily_dir=True)
│   ├── figures/                             # daily plots (plot_daily=True)
│   └── {nslc}_{start}_{end}.csv             # merged tremor CSV
│
├── training/                                # TrainingModel
│   ├── features/{cv-slug}/                  # tsfresh matrix, per-seed CSVs, top-N features
│   └── classifiers/
│       ├── ClassifierEnsemble_{cv}.{pkl,json}
│       └── {clf-slug}/{cv-slug}/
│           ├── models/{seed:05d}.pkl
│           ├── trained-model__{suffix}.json
│           └── SeedEnsemble_{suffix}.pkl
│
├── prediction/                              # PredictionModel
│   ├── features/                            # forecast-grid features
│   ├── results/{clf-slug}/{seed:05d}.csv    # per-seed probabilities (save_seed_result=True)
│   └── figures/forecast_{basename}.{png,pdf}
│
├── evaluation/                              # EvaluationModel
│   ├── training/                            # when model="training"
│   └── prediction/                          # when model="prediction"
│       ├── classifiers/{ClfName}/
│       │   ├── predictions/{y_proba,y_pred,y_true}.csv
│       │   ├── metrics/json/{seed:05d}.json
│       │   ├── metrics_summary_*.csv
│       │   └── figures/
│       └── comparison/                      # ClassifierComparator
│
├── cache/                                   # CacheModel
│   ├── TrainingModel/{hash}.pkl + {hash}.params.json
│   └── PredictionModel/{hash}.pkl + {hash}.params.json
│
├── forecast.config.yaml                     # fm.save_config()
├── result_all_model_predictions_{basename}.csv
└── {Training,Prediction,Evaluation}Model_*.pkl   # optional, via .save()

Full tree with slug tables and filename conventions: wiki/Output-Structure.md

---

Requirements

Core dependencies

• Python ≥ 3.11
• pandas ≥ 3.0.0, numpy, scipy
• obspy (seismic data processing)
• tsfresh (time-series feature extraction)
• scikit-learn, imbalanced-learn
• xgboost ≥ 3.x (GPU-capable)
• shap ≥ 0.46
• joblib, numba
• matplotlib, seaborn
• loguru
• python-dotenv (Telegram credentials)

Development dependencies

• ruff — linting + auto-fix
• ty — type checking
• pytest — testing

---

Development

# Lint and auto-fix
uv run ruff check --fix src/

# Type check
uvx ty check src/

# Run tests
uv run pytest tests/

# Circular-import check (run after any module move)
uv run pytest tests/test_imports.py -v

# Run the end-to-end pipeline
uv run python main.py

Project rules are documented in CLAUDE.md — including the new-branch-before-any-commit convention, the comprehensive doc-update rule, and the config.example.yaml sync requirement.

---

Contributing

1. Fork the repository.
2. Create a feature branch from the latest target:
   • fix/<name> — bug fixes
   • ft/<name> — new features
   • dev/<name> — refactors, docs, tooling
3. Make changes with tests and updated wiki pages.
4. Pass linting + type checks: uv run ruff check --fix src/ && uvx ty check src/.
5. Run the circular-import test: uv run pytest tests/test_imports.py -v.
6. Submit a pull request against the configured base branch.

Code style: PEP 8, Google-style docstrings with explicit types, type hints on all public functions, no inline imports.

---

License

MIT License — see LICENSE for details.

Disclaimer of Liability: This software is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, express or implied. The authors and contributors shall not be liable for any damages or losses arising from the use of this software. Volcanic eruption forecasting is inherently uncertain, and this software should be used only as a research tool, not for operational volcano monitoring or public safety decisions.

---

Version: 0.2.0 Status: Active Development Last Updated: 2026-06-11