skdr-eval 0.7.0

Offline policy evaluation using Doubly Robust and Stabilized DR estimators

skdr-eval

Offline policy evaluation for service-time minimization using Doubly Robust (DR) and Stabilized Doubly Robust (SNDR) estimators with time-aware splits and calibration. Now with pairwise evaluation and autoscaling support.

What is this?

skdr-eval is a Python package for offline policy evaluation in service-time optimization scenarios. It implements state-of-the-art Doubly Robust (DR) and Stabilized Doubly Robust (SNDR) estimators with time-aware cross-validation and calibration. The package is designed for evaluating machine learning models that make decisions about service allocation, with special support for pairwise (client-operator) evaluation and autoscaling strategies.

Table of Contents

• Features
• Installation
• Quick Start
  • Standard Evaluation
  • Pairwise Evaluation
• API Reference
• Theory
• Implementation Details
• Bootstrap Confidence Intervals
• Examples
• Development
• Citation

Features

• 🎯 Doubly Robust Estimation: Implements both DR and Stabilized DR (SNDR) estimators
• ⏰ Time-Aware Evaluation: Uses time-series splits and calibrated propensity scores
• 🔧 Sklearn Integration: Easy integration with scikit-learn models
• 📊 Comprehensive Diagnostics: ESS, match rates, propensity score analysis
• 🚀 Production Ready: Type-hinted, tested, and documented
• 📈 Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Moving-block bootstrap for time-series data
• 🤝 Pairwise Evaluation: Client-operator pairwise evaluation with autoscaling strategies
• 🎛️ Autoscaling: Direct, stream, and stream_topk strategies with policy induction
• 🧮 Choice Models: Conditional logit models for propensity estimation

Installation

pip install skdr-eval

Optional Dependencies

For choice models (conditional logit):

pip install skdr-eval[choice]

For speed optimizations (PyArrow, Polars):

pip install skdr-eval[speed]

For development:

git clone https://github.com/dandrsantos/skdr-eval.git
cd skdr-eval
pip install -e .[dev]

Quick Start

Preflight

Before a real evaluation, confirm your environment + schema in one shot:

import skdr_eval

# Which optional extras are installed?
print(skdr_eval.get_capabilities())
# {'viz': True, 'speed': False, 'missing_extras': ['speed']}

# Validate your logs match the schema evaluate_sklearn_models expects.
skdr_eval.validate_logs(logs, strict=True)

# For the pairwise API:
skdr_eval.validate_pairwise_inputs(
    logs_df, op_daily_df, metric_col="service_time", strict=True,
)

See examples/preflight.py for a runnable script — wire it into CI to catch schema or extras drift before the long-running evaluation kicks off.

Standard Evaluation

import skdr_eval
from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor, HistGradientBoostingRegressor

# 1. Generate synthetic service logs
logs, ops_all, true_q = skdr_eval.make_synth_logs(n=5000, n_ops=5, seed=42)

# 2. Define candidate models
models = {
    "RandomForest": RandomForestRegressor(n_estimators=100, random_state=42),
    "HistGradientBoosting": HistGradientBoostingRegressor(random_state=42),
}

# 3. Evaluate models using DR and SNDR
artifact = skdr_eval.evaluate_sklearn_models(
    logs=logs,
    models=models,
    fit_models=True,
    n_splits=3,
    random_state=42,
)

# 4. View results
print(artifact.report[['model', 'estimator', 'V_hat', 'ESS', 'match_rate']])

# 5. Trust signals (issue #22 / #23)
print(artifact.warnings)        # per-(model, estimator) support_health + codes
print(artifact.sensitivity)     # clip-grid value range and stability flag
print(artifact.diagnostics)     # propensity overlap / calibration / discrimination

# 6. Export (issue #28) and stakeholder card (issue #30)
artifact.export("artifacts/run", formats=["json", "html"])
artifact.save_card("artifacts/run_card.html", "RandomForest")

# 7. Per-decision contributions (issue #92) — opt in with keep_contributions=True
artifact = skdr_eval.evaluate_sklearn_models(
    logs=logs,
    models=models,
    fit_models=True,
    n_splits=3,
    random_state=42,
    keep_contributions=True,  # attach per-decision DR/SNDR pseudo-outcomes
)
contribs = artifact.contributions("RandomForest", estimator="DR", top_k=5)
print(contribs)  # decision_id, q_pi, q_hat, weight, reward, contribution_to_V
#  contribution_to_V.mean() == V_hat by construction (float64 precision)

Breaking change in 0.6.0: evaluate_sklearn_models and evaluate_pairwise_models now return a single EvaluationArtifact instead of the legacy (report, detailed) tuple. Unpack artifact.report / artifact.detailed to migrate.

Pairwise Evaluation

import skdr_eval
from sklearn.ensemble import HistGradientBoostingRegressor

# 1. Generate synthetic pairwise data (client-operator pairs)
logs_df, op_daily_df = skdr_eval.make_pairwise_synth(n_days=3, n_clients_day=500, n_ops=10, seed=42)

# 2. Train model on observed data
feature_cols = [c for c in logs_df.columns if c.startswith(("cli_", "op_"))]
model = HistGradientBoostingRegressor(random_state=42)
model.fit(logs_df[feature_cols].values, logs_df["service_time"].values)

# 3. Run pairwise evaluation
artifact = skdr_eval.evaluate_pairwise_models(
    logs_df=logs_df,
    op_daily_df=op_daily_df,
    models={"HGB": model},
    metric_col="service_time",
    task_type="regression",
    direction="min",
    strategy="auto",
    n_splits=3,
    random_state=42,
)

# 4. View results
print(artifact.report[["model", "estimator", "V_hat", "ESS", "match_rate"]])
print(artifact.warnings)

API Reference

Core Functions

make_synth_logs(n=5000, n_ops=5, seed=0)

Generate synthetic service logs for evaluation.

Returns:

• logs: DataFrame with service logs
• ops_all: Index of all operator names
• true_q: Ground truth service times

build_design(logs, cli_pref='cli_', st_pref='st_')

Build design matrices from logs.

Returns:

• Design: Dataclass with feature matrices and metadata

evaluate_sklearn_models(logs, models, **kwargs)

Evaluate sklearn models using DR and SNDR estimators.

Parameters:

• logs: Service log DataFrame
• models: Dict of model name to sklearn estimator
• fit_models: Whether to fit models (default: True)
• n_splits: Number of time-series splits (default: 3)
• random_state: Random seed for reproducibility

Temporal split controls (keyword-only):

• gap: Samples skipped between train and test in each CV fold (default: 1, conservative adjacent-row leakage guard; 0 for sklearn's unbuffered behavior).
• test_size: Per-fold test-window size in samples (default: None, defers to sklearn's automatic sizing).
• max_train_size: Cap on training-fold size in samples (default: None, expanding window). Set this to switch to a sliding-window CV — useful when early data is no longer representative.

The same trio is accepted by evaluate_pairwise_models, fit_propensity_timecal, fit_outcome_crossfit, and estimate_propensity_pairwise.

evaluate_pairwise_models(logs_df, op_daily_df, models, metric_col, task_type, direction, **kwargs)

Evaluate models using pairwise (client-operator) evaluation with autoscaling.

Parameters:

Required:

• logs_df: Pairwise decision log DataFrame
• op_daily_df: Daily operator availability DataFrame
• models: Dict of model name to fitted sklearn estimator
• metric_col: Target metric column name
• task_type: Type of prediction task ("regression" or "binary")
• direction: Whether to minimize or maximize the metric ("min" or "max")

Optional:

• n_splits: Number of time-series cross-validation splits (default: 3)
• strategy: Policy induction strategy ("auto", "direct", "stream", or "stream_topk"; default: "auto")
• propensity: Propensity estimation method ("auto", "condlogit", or "multinomial"; default: "auto"). "auto" lets skdr-eval choose an appropriate method based on the evaluation setup.
• topk: Top-K operators for stream_topk strategy (default: 20)
• neg_per_pos: Negative samples per positive for conditional logit (default: 5)
• chunk_pairs: Chunk size for streaming pair generation (default: 2,000,000)
• min_ess_frac: Minimum ESS fraction for clipping threshold selection (default: 0.02)
• clip_grid: Tuple of clipping thresholds (default: (2, 5, 10, 20, 50, float("inf")))
• ci_bootstrap: Whether to compute bootstrap confidence intervals (default: False)
• alpha: Significance level for confidence intervals (default: 0.05)
• outcome_estimator: Outcome model (depends on task_type): for "regression": "hgb", "ridge", "rf"; for "binary": "hgb", "logistic"; or a callable (default: "hgb")
• day_col: Day column name (default: "arrival_day")
• client_id_col: Client ID column name (default: "client_id")
• operator_id_col: Operator ID column name (default: "operator_id")
• elig_col: Eligibility mask column name (default: "elig_mask")
• random_state: Random seed for reproducibility (default: 0)

Returns:

• EvaluationArtifact: bundled result. Use .report for the summary DataFrame, .detailed for per-model DRResults, .warnings for support-health warnings, .sensitivity for clip-grid stability, .diagnostics for propensity diagnostics, and .to_json / .to_html / .card / .export for stakeholder artifacts.

make_pairwise_synth(n_days=14, n_clients_day=2000, n_ops=200, **kwargs)

Generate synthetic pairwise (client-operator) data for evaluation.

Parameters:

• n_days: Number of days to simulate
• n_clients_day: Number of clients per day
• n_ops: Number of operators
• seed: Random seed for reproducibility
• binary: Whether to generate binary outcomes (default: False)

Returns:

• logs_df: DataFrame with pairwise decisions
• op_daily_df: DataFrame with daily operator data

Advanced Functions

fit_propensity_timecal(X_phi, A, n_splits=3, random_state=0)

Fit propensity model with time-aware cross-validation and isotonic calibration.

fit_outcome_crossfit(X_obs, Y, n_splits=3, estimator='hgb', random_state=0)

Fit outcome model with cross-fitting. Supports 'hgb', 'ridge', 'rf', or custom estimators.

dr_value_with_clip(propensities, policy_probs, Y, q_hat, A, elig, clip_grid=...)

Compute DR and SNDR values with automatic clipping threshold selection.

block_bootstrap_ci(values_num, values_den, base_mean, n_boot=400, **kwargs)

Compute confidence intervals using moving-block bootstrap for time-series data.

Theory

Why DR and SNDR?

Doubly Robust (DR) estimation provides unbiased policy evaluation when either the propensity model OR the outcome model is correctly specified. The estimator is:

V̂_DR = (1/n) Σ [q̂_π(x_i) + w_i * (y_i - q̂(x_i, a_i))]

Stabilized DR (SNDR) reduces variance by normalizing importance weights:

V̂_SNDR = (1/n) Σ q̂_π(x_i) + [Σ w_i * (y_i - q̂(x_i, a_i))] / [Σ w_i]

Where:

• q̂_π(x) = expected outcome under evaluation policy π
• q̂(x,a) = outcome model prediction
• w_i = π(a_i|x_i) / e(a_i|x_i) = importance weight (clipped)
• e(a_i|x_i) = propensity score (calibrated)

Implementation Details

Autoscaling Strategies

• Direct: Uses the logging policy directly without modification
• Stream: Induces a policy from sklearn models and applies it to streaming decisions
• Stream TopK: Similar to stream but restricts choices to top-K operators based on predicted service times

Key Features

• Time-Series Aware: Uses TimeSeriesSplit for all cross-validation with temporal ordering
• Calibrated Propensities: Per-fold isotonic calibration via CalibratedClassifierCV
• Automatic Clipping: Smart threshold selection to minimize variance while maintaining ESS
• Comprehensive Diagnostics: ESS, match rates, propensity quantiles, and tail mass analysis

Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

For time-series data, use moving-block bootstrap with proper statistical methodology:

# Enable bootstrap CIs
artifact = skdr_eval.evaluate_sklearn_models(
    logs=logs,
    models=models,
    ci_bootstrap=True,
    alpha=0.05,  # 95% confidence
)

print(artifact.report[['model', 'estimator', 'V_hat', 'ci_lower', 'ci_upper']])

Key Features:

• Moving-block bootstrap: Preserves time-series correlation structure
• Proper statistical inference: Uses bootstrap distribution of DR contributions
• Automatic fallback: Falls back to normal approximation if bootstrap fails
• Configurable parameters: Control bootstrap samples, block length, and significance level

Examples

See examples/quickstart.py for a complete example, or run:

python examples/quickstart.py

Development

Setup

git clone https://github.com/dandrsantos/skdr-eval.git
cd skdr-eval
python -m venv .venv
source .venv/bin/activate  # On Windows: .venv\Scripts\activate
pip install -e .[dev]

Testing

pytest -v

Linting and Formatting

ruff check src/ tests/ examples/
ruff format src/ tests/ examples/
mypy src/skdr_eval/

Pre-commit Hooks

pre-commit install
pre-commit run --all-files

Building

python -m build

Publishing to PyPI

This package uses Trusted Publishing (PEP 740) for secure PyPI releases.

Automatic (Recommended)

1. Create a GitHub release with a version tag (e.g., v0.1.0)
2. The release.yml workflow will automatically build and publish

Manual Fallback

If Trusted Publishing is not configured:

1. Set up PyPI API token: https://pypi.org/manage/account/token/
2. Build the package: python -m build
3. Upload: twine upload dist/*

Trusted Publishing Setup

1. Go to https://pypi.org/manage/project/skdr-eval/settings/publishing/
2. Add GitHub repository as trusted publisher:
   • Repository: dandrsantos/skdr-eval
   • Workflow: release.yml
   • Environment: release

Citation

If you use this software in your research, please cite:

@software{santos2024skdr,
  title = {skdr-eval: Offline Policy Evaluation for Service-Time Minimization},
  author = {Santos, Diogo},
  year = {2024},
  url = {https://github.com/dandrsantos/skdr-eval},
  version = {0.1.0}
}

License

This project is licensed under the MIT License - see the LICENSE file for details.

Contributing

Contributions are welcome! Please feel free to submit a Pull Request. For major changes, please open an issue first to discuss what you would like to change.

Acknowledgments

• Built with scikit-learn for machine learning
• Uses pandas for data manipulation
• Follows PEP 621 for project metadata