solar-flare-utac

GenesisAeon Package 22 — Solar Flare Magnetic Avalanches as UTAC System

[](https://github.com/genesisaeon/solar-flare-utac/actions/workflows/ci.yml) [](https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202449012)

Solar flares modelled as magnetic UTAC avalanches — calibrated against Solar Orbiter (2026), GOES X-ray data (1975–2026), and Velasco Herrera et al. (2026, JGR Space Physics).

Key result: Γ_solar ≈ 0.014 (ultra-low CREP) → most hair-trigger system in the atlas.

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Central Result

Γ_solar = arctanh(0.03) / 2.2 ≈ 0.014

Solar active regions occupy the ultra-sensitive (ultra-low CREP) end of the GenesisAeon cross-domain criticality spectrum — the lowest Γ of any system in the atlas. Tiny CREP fluctuations produce giant energy releases, explaining why deterministic solar flare prediction is so notoriously difficult.

CREP Criticality Spectrum

Domain	Package	Γ	η	Character
Solar Flare	P21	0.014	1%	Ultra-sensitive
Cygnus X-1 Jet	P17	0.046	5%	Hair-trigger
Amazon Rainforest	P19	0.116	12%	Fragile
AMOC Ocean	P18	0.251	50%	Homeostatic
Neural Criticality	P20	0.251	50%	Homeostatic (!)
BTW Sandpile	P22	0.296	58%	Robust SOC
Manna Sandpile	P22	0.376	72%	Dense SOC
ERA5 Arctic	P01	0.920	99%	Near-saturated

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Physical Mapping to UTAC

UTAC symbol	Solar quantity
H(t)	Normalised magnetic free energy ∈ [0, 1]
K	E_max ≈ 10³² J (active region energy ceiling)
H*	Quiescent fixed point ≈ 0.10 K
r	Flux-emergence buildup rate ≈ 0.06 hr⁻¹
σ	CREP coupling = 2.2
Γ(t)	CREP tensor (C, R, E, P) → Γ_solar ≈ 0.014

Flare trigger: when H > H_threshold = 0.60 AND Γ > θ_PT ≈ 0.014, the magnetic current sheet becomes unstable → reconnection cascade → "magnetic avalanche" (Solar Orbiter A&A 2026).

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Installation

pip install solar-flare-utac
# or
uv add solar-flare-utac
# development
pip install -e ".[dev]"

Quickstart

from solar_flare_utac import SolarFlareUTAC

model = SolarFlareUTAC(seed=42)
state  = model.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)

print(state['crep_state'])    # {C, R, E, P, Gamma}
print(state['utac_state'])    # {H, dH_dt, H_star, K_eff}
print(state['flare_count'])   # flares in this cycle

window = model.predict_flare_window(horizon_days=3)
record = model.to_zenodo_record()

CLI

# Run a 72-hour simulation cycle
solar-utac run --duration 72 --active-region AR3000

# Flare probability window forecast
solar-utac flare-window --horizon 7

# Print the full CREP Criticality Spectrum
solar-utac gamma-crep-spectrum

# Validate against benchmark targets
solar-utac benchmark

# Export Zenodo metadata record
solar-utac zenodo-export

Integration in genesis-os

from genesis_os import GenesisOS
os = GenesisOS()
solar = os.load_package(21)
results = solar.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)
print(f"Γ_solar = {results['crep_state']['Gamma']:.4f}")

Diamond-Template Contract

All GenesisAeon packages implement the same five-method interface:

model.run_cycle(duration_hours=72)  → dict
model.get_crep_state()              → {C, R, E, P, Gamma}
model.get_utac_state()              → {H, dH_dt, H_star, K_eff}
model.get_phase_events()            → list[dict]   # each flare = one event
model.to_zenodo_record()            → dict

Repository Structure

solar-flare-utac/
├── src/solar_flare_utac/
│   ├── system.py          # SolarFlareUTAC — Diamond interface + Ethics Gate
│   ├── active_region.py   # Magnetic free energy ODE (UTAC)
│   ├── reconnection.py    # Reconnection instability threshold (Syrovatsky)
│   ├── crep_solar.py      # Solar CREP tensor (C, R, E, P → Γ)
│   ├── goes_loader.py     # GOES X-ray flux loader + synthetic generator
│   ├── superflare.py      # Power-law flare statistics (SOC)
│   ├── geomagnetic.py     # Dst storm impact model
│   ├── benchmark.py       # Validation vs. GOES catalog + Orbiter
│   ├── cli.py             # Typer CLI
│   └── constants.py       # All physical and model constants
├── data/
│   ├── goes_xray_annual_stats.yaml
│   └── flare_catalog_summary.yaml
├── notebooks/
│   ├── 01_solar_utac_overview.ipynb
│   ├── 02_goes_crep_analysis.ipynb
│   ├── 03_flare_cascade.ipynb
│   └── 04_gamma_solar_calibration.ipynb
└── tests/
    ├── test_diamond_interface.py
    ├── test_active_region.py
    ├── test_reconnection.py
    └── test_superflare.py

Benchmark

Target values below are informed by the cited literature, but most checks compare the model against itself rather than independent data at runtime -- see benchmark.py's module docstring for the honest breakdown of which checks are self-consistency tests. The reconnection timescale check currently fails by ~20x at its test point; this is a known, unresolved calibration gap (see FOLLOWUP_TICKETS.md), not silently hidden.

Target	Value	Tolerance
Γ_solar	0.014	±0.005
X-class energy [J]	10³²	log ±0.5
Power-law index α	1.8	±0.1
Reconnection timescale	10 min	±30%
X-class flares/cycle	150	±20%

Falsifiable Prediction

Next X5+ flare window in 2026 Q3 (southern hemisphere active region peak, per Velasco Herrera 2026). Γ_solar will exceed θ_PT during this period. Testable against GOES real-time monitoring at SWPC.

References

• Solar Orbiter / A&A 2026 — magnetic avalanche mechanism
• Velasco Herrera et al. 2026, JGR Space Physics — 47-year superflare dataset
• Thoen Faber et al. 2025 — SST/CHROMIS high-resolution flare ribbons (140–200 km)
• ESA CryoSat + Swarm 2026 — X-class geomagnetic storm measurements

Citation

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Part of the GenesisAeon cross-domain CREP criticality atlas. Code: GPLv3-or-later · Docs & Data: CC BY 4.0 · seed=42 · numpy/scipy/matplotlib